A good one year stint in Boston for Turner, but unfortunately that's probably about it. Also, notes on good trading partners for Boston, a JD Martinez return, and even more on Juan Soto because duh.
I'm not sure I buy that Kirby/Gilbert are available. They're both excellent, ie there's really no reason for the team to sour on them. The M's have a young core and have been banging on the door of the playoffs the past couple of years... trading either of those guys for prospects would be a step backward. Instead, your point about "trading them to improve their offense" is more reasonable... but I think that inevitably means that the chip that Breslow would have to dangle there is Casas. And I'm not sure that's going to happen. (But if it does, there's your spot to keep Turner!)
Good points, Ray. I'm more going on reports that I've read about the M's than anything I know, to be clear. It's entirely possible they aren't interested in moving their young pitching. I certainly get why they'd want to keep them.
And yeah, while I guess in theory everyone is available, Casas would be about the last guy on the roster who I'd look to trade. Perhaps Breslow sees it differently, but I'd be quite surprised.
I enjoyed traveling down the rabbit hole with you. Lots to unpack, but I’d like to focus on the Turner situation.
He had an excellent season for the Sox, but it was always likely to be a 1-year situation. Even his creative contract was designed to essentially pay him $15 million for 1 year while spreading the salary over 2 seasons for luxury tax purposes.
Two reasons why it’s time to say goodbye.
1. His 2 primary defensive positions are manned by Boston’s best players.
2. It’s not a good idea for this team to use a full-time DH. (Also why a JDM reunion makes no sense)
The Red Sox need to use their DH spot to improve their defense by getting weaker defenders off the field. I’d like to see Yoshida used as a DH at least half the time.
Casas and Devers could also DH occasionally, along with whatever RHH they acquire to replace Turner and Duvall.
Thanks for reading, Walt. I'm hopeful Casas can spend the off-season improving his defense. I do think he should be able to get to somewhere approaching league average, which would be fine.
As for Turner, yeah, we're on the same page there. Enjoyed it, but unless the roster drastically changes, thanks for a fun season and best of luck in the future.
Kirby is the guy I've looked at for awhile. I do think the Red Sox need to add 3 starters. One elite, one mid-rotation and one by trade. I also think they should be looking at SD for Tatis. I think Turner did a good job for them in 2023 but I don't see the fit for '24 right now. Unless they trade Casas for Kirby, then maybe they have a need.
Tatis is a dream of mine also. He solves a lot of problems, but there's obviously off-the-field stuff there too, which complicates things. And, on top of all that, I'm sure SD isn't looking to give him away. But it's definitely something I hope Breslow looks into.
Nice article. I’ve been anticipating an exciting offseason ever since Breslow was announced as the new decision maker, and I’ll be interested too see what types of trades he can pull off. I agree that our major league pitching staff is overall in much better shape than many folks will acknowledge. With so many teams in need of pitching, I wonder if some of our depth can be used to pursue upgrades. I like Tanner Houck, Kutter Crawford, and Garrett Whitlock just fine. But if one or two of them can be used to pry Cease away from the White Sox (or another top-end starter) then that could help Breslow hold onto some of our top prospects. I’m also curious to see which LH outfielder gets moved. Even though the popular assumption is that it will be Verdugo, I would wanna gage the interest around the league on Jarren Duran and Wilyer Abreu. Duran in particular is something of a late bloomer whose game is predicated on speed, a tool which can diminish rapidly as we’ve seen with guys like Carl Crawford and Jacoby Ellsbury. I’m afraid his 2023 performance could be an outlier. Even if it’s not, his value (at least on the trade market) will probably never be higher than it is right now. Put another way: if Duran could net us one of Cleveland’s many quality young major league starters, and the best Verdugo could bring back is backend starter with a low ceiling and limited control (think Nick Pivetta) or just a decent prospect, which would you choose? I’m taking the former and riding out Verdugo’s defense in RF for another year until hopefully Roman Anthony is ready.
Last thought: why are we still talking about JDM? He’s even more of a defensive liability than JT or any of the current Red Sox mentioned, and I’m not convinced that 2023 wasn’t an outlier for him. Remember, he looked downright awful in 2 of his final 3 seasons (2020 and 2022) in Boston. I’d honestly rather have Justin Tuner back, but I agree that neither make any sense whatsoever based on the current construction of the roster. The DH spot needs to be used on Yoshida and Devers (maybe some Casas too) in order to improve team defense without cutting into the lineup’s production. I’m happy that Martinez has found success in LA, but I want no part of him for the same reason I don’t want the Red Sox pursuing Ryan Brasier (who also managed to catch lightning in a bottle as soon as he reached the West Coast) in free agency either.
There is definitely something to be said for riding Verdugo for one more year and hoping Anthony can make the jump to fill that gap before 2024 starts.
On JD - I mentioned it because it had been brought up by a couple other sites, including the Globe. Also, I'm not sure how plugged in Sox fans are to the Dodgers, but JD had a really nice season, and he's a FA again. So if you're looking for a middle of the order bat, I think he should be in the conversation. That said, if you're signing JD there's gotta be some roster turnover because the fit isn't great as things stand now.
I'm not sure I buy that Kirby/Gilbert are available. They're both excellent, ie there's really no reason for the team to sour on them. The M's have a young core and have been banging on the door of the playoffs the past couple of years... trading either of those guys for prospects would be a step backward. Instead, your point about "trading them to improve their offense" is more reasonable... but I think that inevitably means that the chip that Breslow would have to dangle there is Casas. And I'm not sure that's going to happen. (But if it does, there's your spot to keep Turner!)
Good piece, thanks as always.
Good points, Ray. I'm more going on reports that I've read about the M's than anything I know, to be clear. It's entirely possible they aren't interested in moving their young pitching. I certainly get why they'd want to keep them.
And yeah, while I guess in theory everyone is available, Casas would be about the last guy on the roster who I'd look to trade. Perhaps Breslow sees it differently, but I'd be quite surprised.
Thanks, Matt.
I enjoyed traveling down the rabbit hole with you. Lots to unpack, but I’d like to focus on the Turner situation.
He had an excellent season for the Sox, but it was always likely to be a 1-year situation. Even his creative contract was designed to essentially pay him $15 million for 1 year while spreading the salary over 2 seasons for luxury tax purposes.
Two reasons why it’s time to say goodbye.
1. His 2 primary defensive positions are manned by Boston’s best players.
2. It’s not a good idea for this team to use a full-time DH. (Also why a JDM reunion makes no sense)
The Red Sox need to use their DH spot to improve their defense by getting weaker defenders off the field. I’d like to see Yoshida used as a DH at least half the time.
Casas and Devers could also DH occasionally, along with whatever RHH they acquire to replace Turner and Duvall.
Thanks for reading, Walt. I'm hopeful Casas can spend the off-season improving his defense. I do think he should be able to get to somewhere approaching league average, which would be fine.
As for Turner, yeah, we're on the same page there. Enjoyed it, but unless the roster drastically changes, thanks for a fun season and best of luck in the future.
Kirby is the guy I've looked at for awhile. I do think the Red Sox need to add 3 starters. One elite, one mid-rotation and one by trade. I also think they should be looking at SD for Tatis. I think Turner did a good job for them in 2023 but I don't see the fit for '24 right now. Unless they trade Casas for Kirby, then maybe they have a need.
Tatis is a dream of mine also. He solves a lot of problems, but there's obviously off-the-field stuff there too, which complicates things. And, on top of all that, I'm sure SD isn't looking to give him away. But it's definitely something I hope Breslow looks into.
Nice article. I’ve been anticipating an exciting offseason ever since Breslow was announced as the new decision maker, and I’ll be interested too see what types of trades he can pull off. I agree that our major league pitching staff is overall in much better shape than many folks will acknowledge. With so many teams in need of pitching, I wonder if some of our depth can be used to pursue upgrades. I like Tanner Houck, Kutter Crawford, and Garrett Whitlock just fine. But if one or two of them can be used to pry Cease away from the White Sox (or another top-end starter) then that could help Breslow hold onto some of our top prospects. I’m also curious to see which LH outfielder gets moved. Even though the popular assumption is that it will be Verdugo, I would wanna gage the interest around the league on Jarren Duran and Wilyer Abreu. Duran in particular is something of a late bloomer whose game is predicated on speed, a tool which can diminish rapidly as we’ve seen with guys like Carl Crawford and Jacoby Ellsbury. I’m afraid his 2023 performance could be an outlier. Even if it’s not, his value (at least on the trade market) will probably never be higher than it is right now. Put another way: if Duran could net us one of Cleveland’s many quality young major league starters, and the best Verdugo could bring back is backend starter with a low ceiling and limited control (think Nick Pivetta) or just a decent prospect, which would you choose? I’m taking the former and riding out Verdugo’s defense in RF for another year until hopefully Roman Anthony is ready.
Last thought: why are we still talking about JDM? He’s even more of a defensive liability than JT or any of the current Red Sox mentioned, and I’m not convinced that 2023 wasn’t an outlier for him. Remember, he looked downright awful in 2 of his final 3 seasons (2020 and 2022) in Boston. I’d honestly rather have Justin Tuner back, but I agree that neither make any sense whatsoever based on the current construction of the roster. The DH spot needs to be used on Yoshida and Devers (maybe some Casas too) in order to improve team defense without cutting into the lineup’s production. I’m happy that Martinez has found success in LA, but I want no part of him for the same reason I don’t want the Red Sox pursuing Ryan Brasier (who also managed to catch lightning in a bottle as soon as he reached the West Coast) in free agency either.
There is definitely something to be said for riding Verdugo for one more year and hoping Anthony can make the jump to fill that gap before 2024 starts.
On JD - I mentioned it because it had been brought up by a couple other sites, including the Globe. Also, I'm not sure how plugged in Sox fans are to the Dodgers, but JD had a really nice season, and he's a FA again. So if you're looking for a middle of the order bat, I think he should be in the conversation. That said, if you're signing JD there's gotta be some roster turnover because the fit isn't great as things stand now.