The Red Sox Should Probably Let Justin Turner Go and other stray thoughts pertaining to the team

A good one year stint in Boston for Turner, but unfortunately that's probably about it. Also, notes on good trading partners for Boston, a JD Martinez return, and even more on Juan Soto because duh.

The local media seems enthralled with Justin Turner and if I’m honest, I don’t quite see it. Clearly he’s a good guy, or at least that’s how he comes off both on the field and off. We never really and truly know these things, but as far as we can know it, we know it. He’s also a good hitter. People love to throw the word “professional” in front of his job title, as in Justin Turner is just a professional hitter. It means he’s a good hitter, but not quite a great one. It also kinda means he takes walks.

Justin Turner is good! And the deal he signed with the Red Sox last off-season worked out well. But Turner is going to be 39 years old next season, and for a team with a glut of corner infielders and more than a few players playing the field who might be better off as DHs, adding another one on what would assumedly be a multi-year deal doesn’t make a ton of sense to me.

This all assumes the roster remains as is, but of course it seems pretty clear there are going to be some changes. I’m not sure those changes will open up a spot for Turner, but if there is one and the team can get him on a one year deal, maybe with an option and a buyout, I’d be game. But I don’t imagine Rafael Devers, Triston Casas, or Masataka Yoshida will be going anywhere, and that limits the team’s ability to find playing time for Turner.

A different DH, JD Martinez, has been mentioned as a possible replacement, and that makes some sense. Martinez had a return to form for LA in 2023, hitting 33 homers with an OPS 33 percent above league average. He’s also three years younger than Turner. And, like Turner, Martinez is right handed, something the team needs, and especially so if Turner departs.

MLB Trade Rumors projects Martinez to make $40 million on a two-year deal, which would be fine if he could replicate his ‘23 campaign in ‘24 for Boston. It is a fair bit of coin though, and if Boston is going to sign Aaron Nola and Yoshinobu Yamamoto and trade for Juan Soto, there might not be 20 extra large left over for ol’ JD.

Speaking of Soto, he’s an amazing talent, and if he’s available the Red Sox need to check in on him. But the question I keep coming back to is, will he sign an extension with a team that trades for him? Because if you’re trading for Juan Soto’s remaining career, sure, here’s Roman Anthony. But if we’re trading for one year of Juan Soto, well, that’s quite a different thing. Soto is a Scott Boras client and Boras clients aren’t known for signing team-friendly extensions a year out from reaching free agency for the first time. If Soto is intent on hitting the market, even in the face of a gigantic offer from an acquiring team, then sending big prospect capital to San Diego for a single season of the superstar becomes far less palatable to me.

If I’m new POBO Craig Breslow, I’m trying to win in ‘24 but I have three top prospects who could impact my major league team as soon as this upcoming season in Roman Anthony (CF, or potentially RF), Kyle Teel (catcher), and Marcelo Mayer (SS). I’m loath to trade any of those guys for Soto unless I know I can lock him up longterm. If I can’t, then I’m good assuming which ever team Soto plays for in ‘24 is a stopgap for him on his way to free agency. But I’m definitely spending at least part of the 2024 season looking under couch cushions for extra change in advance of Soto’s free agency next off-season.

As for pitching, well, I might be in the minority here but I don’t think they’re in a bad spot. Right now they have Sale and Bello in the rotation. After that, well, it depends, but again, that’s not wholly a bad thing. I definitely think they need to add to what they have, but the good news is they have a bunch of decent pitchers who can kinda bounce from the rotation to the bullpen if need be. If the Sox sign Yamamoto, then maybe Tanner Houck becomes an 8th inning guy. If they sign Nola too maybe you have Kutter Crawford as a 7th inning guy, or a multi-inning fireman type.

I’ve read stories that seem to think the team is going to sign multiple free agent pitchers, and I’m not sure I see that happening. Just about every team needs starting pitching this off-season including almost all the big spenders. The Giants, Rangers, Dodgers, Mets, and Yankeees are all in the market for a starter or two. Are the Red Sox really going to beat out (read: outspend) all those teams for the best starter not once but twice? Seems suspect to me, but I’m open to it. This team starts looking a lot stronger with Yamamoto and Nola atop the rotation, that’s for sure.

I kinda glossed over the prospects angle earlier, but I do think that’s one of the most interesting aspects to this winter. Boston has three blue-chip guys who could be ready to step in and impact the major league team at three positions of need. You really couldn’t program it any better (assuming they can’t be starting pitchers). The Red Sox just lost their longtime starting catcher in Christian Vazquez? Kyle Teel is already in Double-A! Xander Bogaerts signs (an absurd contract) with the Padres? Marcello Mayer (pronounced “my-ur”), fourth overall draft pick and excellent shortstop prospect, is also in Double-A! Alex Verdugo pissing you off and running out of team control? Roman Anthony is one of the best outfield prospects in baseball and he’s ALSO in Double-A!

It’s really an embarrassment of riches. But, and here’s another thing to think about, none of these guys are Breslow’s guys. They’re all Bloom guys. Breslow has talked once publicly - ONCE! - and he’s already mentioned the need to trade prospects. Like, it took him no time. “Hello, my name is Craig Breslow, nice to meet you. Is this closet where you keep the prospects because I might need to trade a few soon?”

So how does Breslow approach this? He has prospects and he needs pitching. He could sign Nola and Yamamoto for probably something approaching $450 million in total, or he could, you know, not do that. Instead, he could ship Anthony to the [insert team here] for [insert pitcher here] and save some of John Henry’s spending money for a rainy day.

That last paragraph sent me down a bit of a rabbit hole on starting pitching. If you pull up FanGraphs and sort by the best starting pitchers in 2023 there are 20 starters who posted 3.4 fWAR or better. Those 20 can be put into three categories: 1) not going anywhere, 2) free agents, and 3) Hmmmm…

Skipping to the bottom of the page, the starters I see as trade candidates are as follows: Dylan Cease, Jesus Luzardo, Logan Gilbert, and George Kirby. Basically, it’s Cease and then two teams that stand out as good trading partners for the Red Sox in the Marlins and the Mariners.

The Marlins are particularly interesting because they have a new front office, having just hired Peter Bendix from the Rays. Who knows what Bendix will look to do, but I wouldn’t be shocked if he were open for business. The guy who really intrigues me on the Marlins (outside of Eury Perez who, A) yes please! and B) they aren’t trading) is Jesus Luzardo. Luzardo has a killer fastball, gets tons of strikeouts, and has dropped his walk rate three consecutive years. He’s also 25 and with four years of team control remaining.

There are some warts. He’s had major injury problems in his career, but he threw 178 innings in ‘23, so perhaps those are behind him. Or perhaps they aren’t. That’s always the trick with starters. Also, when he gave up contact, that contact was often very hard, which isn’t good. Still thought the overall results were quite good. Lots of Ks, not too many walks or homers allowed, and an ERA 24 percent better than league average (which exactly matches what he did ERA-wise in 2022 as well).

The Mariners have both Kirby and Gilbert and seem to have soured on both to some extent, or at least they are willing to entertain ruining their starting pitching to improve their hitting. Of the two, Kirby is younger and has five years of team control remaining, while Gilbert only has four (drat). Kirby had the better season in ‘23, but both were good.

None of these young starters would come cheap. We’re talking about ways to spend the Red Sox top prospects here, in case that wasn’t clear.

Anyway, exiting the rabbit hole, there are lots of options for Breslow. There will be news on this front soon enough, I’m sure, and I’ll be back here then, or sooner if I get a free evening on the couch.

Thanks for reading.