The best news is that Casas is under team control for (I believe) 5 more years. That gives them at least a year to feel more certain about his ability. You don’t want it to drag on too long but why get in a financial bind? I like him a lot but he’s no Ortiz.
It's a guessing game. Projections are just that. What did Ortiz's projections look like at age 24? The team has to decide on a philosophy and go for it. The Braves are locking up all the young guys long term. The risk is they turn out to suck. The reward is they don't suck and you have Acuna for discounted money. The likeliest scenario is probably in between. Braves seem to be getting it right with everyone being good but that could change if guys get hurt or suddenly slow down. It's working early though.
If we want to do this with our guys it may work sometimes and not work other times. I tend to lean towards doing it though because let's say Casas is good for 5 year but sucks after and we signed him for 10 years. You might say - oh no we have him locked up for 5 years of suck. But his salary for those 5 years will look a lot lower relative to other player salaries than it does now, so we might be able to afford to keep him even though he's meh because he isn't making premium player dough, and with a contract that's below market he's probably also tradeable. Welcome to the Royals, son.
Two points on what you said. If Casas, as you say, is good for five years and then sucks after that, signing him for 10 years would end up being be a bad thing. That's because the Red Sox already have Casas for the next five seasons. He's not a free agent until after the 2028 season. So what we're really asking here (and what I failed to say in the article) is, 'what do Triston Casas' 2029 through infinity seasons look like?' is really the question at hand.
As for the projections, yeah, they're just guesses, but they're A) educated guesses, and B) unbiased guesses. Both of those things make them valuable and worth paying attention to, if not treating them as gospel (which I don't think I did).
Not necessarily; you'd be underpaying for the 5 good years and if you got mediocrity after that his salary would be quite low. Well below market let alone star player territory. A level where he could be traded easily. I get it that he's under arbitration control for 5 years, but do you want a bitter guy after a few years who demands a trade, cause that's what you get if a guy hits .275, 30 HR, 105 RBI, 80 runs for the next 5 years playing on crap arbitration salaries.
I love Casas’ hitting upside, but as you note, he’s a 1b, and possibly a future DH. Unless the savings really work in Sox’ favor, I wouldn’t be in a huge rush to extend him. They have time.
The best news is that Casas is under team control for (I believe) 5 more years. That gives them at least a year to feel more certain about his ability. You don’t want it to drag on too long but why get in a financial bind? I like him a lot but he’s no Ortiz.
It's a guessing game. Projections are just that. What did Ortiz's projections look like at age 24? The team has to decide on a philosophy and go for it. The Braves are locking up all the young guys long term. The risk is they turn out to suck. The reward is they don't suck and you have Acuna for discounted money. The likeliest scenario is probably in between. Braves seem to be getting it right with everyone being good but that could change if guys get hurt or suddenly slow down. It's working early though.
If we want to do this with our guys it may work sometimes and not work other times. I tend to lean towards doing it though because let's say Casas is good for 5 year but sucks after and we signed him for 10 years. You might say - oh no we have him locked up for 5 years of suck. But his salary for those 5 years will look a lot lower relative to other player salaries than it does now, so we might be able to afford to keep him even though he's meh because he isn't making premium player dough, and with a contract that's below market he's probably also tradeable. Welcome to the Royals, son.
Thanks for reading and commenting, Jeremy.
Two points on what you said. If Casas, as you say, is good for five years and then sucks after that, signing him for 10 years would end up being be a bad thing. That's because the Red Sox already have Casas for the next five seasons. He's not a free agent until after the 2028 season. So what we're really asking here (and what I failed to say in the article) is, 'what do Triston Casas' 2029 through infinity seasons look like?' is really the question at hand.
As for the projections, yeah, they're just guesses, but they're A) educated guesses, and B) unbiased guesses. Both of those things make them valuable and worth paying attention to, if not treating them as gospel (which I don't think I did).
Not necessarily; you'd be underpaying for the 5 good years and if you got mediocrity after that his salary would be quite low. Well below market let alone star player territory. A level where he could be traded easily. I get it that he's under arbitration control for 5 years, but do you want a bitter guy after a few years who demands a trade, cause that's what you get if a guy hits .275, 30 HR, 105 RBI, 80 runs for the next 5 years playing on crap arbitration salaries.
Thanks, Matt.
I love Casas’ hitting upside, but as you note, he’s a 1b, and possibly a future DH. Unless the savings really work in Sox’ favor, I wouldn’t be in a huge rush to extend him. They have time.