The Red Sox seem to be pinning their future hopes on young players, mostly those who are still in the minor leagues. There’s a very real chance that by July the only box scores worth paying attention to will be those of Portland and Worcester. But I did say “mostly” in the first sentence, and that’s because there are a couple youngsters on the major league roster. I speak of Brayan Bello and Triston Casas.
Bello is a pitcher and as such a piano could fall on his head at any given time. That in and of itself is a reason not to do anything contractually beyond going year to year, and given the lack of reporting on a potential Bello extension, it seems that’s the Red Sox plan. Casas, however, does not pitch. He’s a hitter and he’s just 24 years old. He’s a prime extension candidate!
And, what do you know, news came out yesterday via Casas himself that the Red Sox have had discussions with Casas about a contract extension. My first instinct is YES YES A THOUSAND TIMES YES! But, is that the correct instinct? Is this something the Red Sox should’ve done yesterday, last year, immediately following Casas exiting the womb? Or is this something the team should be more cautious about?
First, it’s instructive to understand generally the amount of money we’re talking about. Red Sox Stats on Twitter (who is a great follow) recently posted this, which shows what a Casas extension might look like, including what some other somewhat comparable first baseman have made.
Adding it all up, that would be an 11 year extension for $163.1 million. That would be an average of $14.8 million a season, though that number is held down significantly by the fact that the next two seasons (2024 and 2025) are pre-arbitration seasons where Casas would make the league minimum salary. And of course there might be opt-outs and opt-ins and team options and escalators and the like, so in practice it would likely be more complex than this. But generally, this is probably in or around the ballpark.
Before you say, “That’s all?!?!,” it’s worth pointing out that $163 million is a lot of money. In terms of total value such a contract would be the third largest in Red Sox history, behind Devers’ $331 million deal and the $217 million the Red Sox guaranteed to David Price back in 2015.
So is Casas worth that? There are a few considerations here before we get into baseball. First, Casas appears to be, as much as we can know these things, a good dude. He does charity work, he cares about the Boston community, and aside from a bit of a rocky start in the clubhouse, something he’s worked to clean up, he seems to be a good teammate. From an off-field perspective, he’s the kind of guy you want on your team now and for years going forward.
Secondly, Casas plays first base, which is a bit of an issue. First is an easy position to fill defensively so there’s not much (read: no) defensive value to be gained by signing Casas. It’s not as if he can not hit and still be a net positive to the team, like a Dustin Pedroia, Xander Bogaerts, or Mookie Betts. Casas brings nothing (on-field) to the team beyond his bat.
Add to that the fact that Casas isn’t a particularly good defensive first baseman, and the position starts to become a bit of an issue. The Red Sox already have Rafael Devers locked up for the next decade. Ostensibly he’s a third baseman, but it’s not clear how much longer he’ll be able to play the position (despite manager Alex Cora recently and bizarrely comparing Devers to newly minted Hall of Famer Adrian Beltre, one of the top five defensive third baseman ever). If Devers has to move off of third, first base is the obvious landing spot, but giving a 10 year deal (or whatever it is) to Casas makes that impossible. Is that a reason not to sign Casas? On its own, no, but it’s a part of the picture.
Could any of that change? Maybe. Casas could improve defensively. That’s possible. You’d sure like him to be at least league average at the position if you’re signing him long term. Ideally both Casas and Devers would be league average corner infielders for the next decade, but that might be too optimistic. If Devers needs to move and first base is unavailable, then you’re looking at the $332 million DH. That might not be a good look.
Offensively I’m pretty optimistic about Casas. He’s a former first round draft pick, so he has the pedigree. He’s got tons of in-game power, and he hits the ball to all fields so despite being left-handed he can still take advantage of the Green Monster in left field at Fenway Park.
If you look at Casas’ 2023 season on Baseball Savant, you can see he’s not providing value defensively or on the bases and he strikes out a bit too much. Everything else is fantastic. He crushes the ball, he’s selective, his average exit velocity is great, and he takes a ton of walks. He can hit all types of pitches, and he hits the ball in the air consistently.
Last season’s stats is where things get interesting for Casas though, because as has been noted just about everywhere, he struggled immensely at the start of the year. He improved greatly as the year went on, and from July 1st on, he was one of the 10 best hitters in baseball by wRC+. You can even extend it back to June 1, and from then through the end of the season, Casas was still top 12. That’s in all of baseball. Impressive.
So the question is, after he got over his initial struggles, was that the Real Triston Casas? Is that the guy the Red Sox can expect in the lineup going forward, a .300/.400/.550 hitting middle-of-the-lineup force? If so, screw all the previous paragraphs and sign him the heck up! Who cares about base running or fielding or roster fit, if we’re talking about prime Manny Ramirez, give him what he wants, get that signature on as long a contract as possible, and worry about the rest of it later.
But, and here’s the rub, we don’t know if that is the Real Casas. FanGraphs’ ZIPS projections see Casas as roughly a .260/.370/.480 hitter over the next three seasons. That’s great, but it’s not elite and combined with bad defense and negative base running value, you’re looking at around a two win player. That’s good! But it’s not necessarily a guy I’d be looking to sign for the next decade.
Baseball Prospectus makes projections also, and theirs for Casas looks even worse. It’s behind a paywall so I don’t want to give it all away, but I don’t think I’m spoiling anything by saying they have him at around a .760 OPS. That, frankly, would be a disaster, and if that’s what Casas’ 2024 season ends up looking like, he should take whatever money the Red Sox are offering him right now.
So you see the reasons for trepidation. The thing about projections is that they’re conservative by nature. They’re not looking at the second half of Casas’ ‘23 season and thinking, ‘he can do that all year long.’ They’re looking at his full ‘23 season as well as his ‘22 season, his age, his minor league numbers, and a ton of historically comparable players. It’s a lot of data and there’s not much room for wishcasting in it.
Me, I’m more of a wishcaster. It’s Red Sox colored glasses I’m wearing when I look at Casas and say I think he’s going to put it all together in 2024. But it’s not my $160 million that’s at stake here. Were it me, I’d extend Casas now, but from the team’s standpoint, there are absolutely reasons not to do that.
If Casas does hit .300/.400/.550 in 2024 his price is going to go up. Way up. If you’re objective is to save money, you can get the same product by buying now rather than waiting. But from a Red Sox team standpoint, a bigger price tag is not all bad. With that increase, there’s a corresponding increased understanding of what the team is getting for their money.
As always with these things, it’s a risk/reward type of deal. Signing Casas today is riskier than waiting a year. He might not be the middle of the order guy you’re hoping and then the Sox are left holding a very expensive bag for a very long time. Perhaps avoiding that danger outweighs the reward of paying Casas less on a long-term deal than you’d have to pay him after a big 2024 season.
Thanks for reading.
The best news is that Casas is under team control for (I believe) 5 more years. That gives them at least a year to feel more certain about his ability. You don’t want it to drag on too long but why get in a financial bind? I like him a lot but he’s no Ortiz.
It's a guessing game. Projections are just that. What did Ortiz's projections look like at age 24? The team has to decide on a philosophy and go for it. The Braves are locking up all the young guys long term. The risk is they turn out to suck. The reward is they don't suck and you have Acuna for discounted money. The likeliest scenario is probably in between. Braves seem to be getting it right with everyone being good but that could change if guys get hurt or suddenly slow down. It's working early though.
If we want to do this with our guys it may work sometimes and not work other times. I tend to lean towards doing it though because let's say Casas is good for 5 year but sucks after and we signed him for 10 years. You might say - oh no we have him locked up for 5 years of suck. But his salary for those 5 years will look a lot lower relative to other player salaries than it does now, so we might be able to afford to keep him even though he's meh because he isn't making premium player dough, and with a contract that's below market he's probably also tradeable. Welcome to the Royals, son.