Great post Matt. Bloom is in a tricky spot. As you outlined, some of his moves worked and some didn’t, but arguably the biggest one (Yoshida) has been a huge success. He’s made a slightly below .500 team into a slightly above .500 team. If this team finishes 88-74 and sneaks into a wild card, I think we’d call it a successful year. But just as likely seems 78-84 again, in which case a new GM will likely be in place by Christmas.
Regardless of which one happens, the long term trajectory is most concerning to me. This isn’t a franchise brimming with top prospects like Baltimore or the Astros of 2015. They’re largely meh outside of a couple big heralded guys (who don’t always pan out- ask Brian Rose). Short of signing Ohtani and/or 2-3 top shelf pitchers this off-season it’s hard to see how they’re anything more than a fringe wild card contender the next two seasons, at least. That’s the biggest indictment of the Bloom era- for all the talk do building the organization from the ground up—contrary to Dombrowki’s go-for-broke philosophy— you could argue the organization is really no better positioned to contend for a title than it was in August 2019 when Dombrowski was canned.
I'd argue that Bloom has generally made the team worse since he became GM. A lot more talent has exited than has entered. He's lowered payroll and reduced financial obligations, but the overall state of the team looks pretty meh. It's worse, but cheaper.
While I have quibbles with some of Bloom’s specific actions, I’m a strong believer in the overall approach the Sox are taking.
The reason the Sox are older than most teams is that they signed guys like Turner, Kluber, Paxton, Martin and Jansen to short-term deals. All but Kluber have been excellent this year. None are on long-term deals.
That’s what you do when you’re waiting for your top prospects to arrive. It takes time, but they’re getting close.
This season, we’ve seen major breakouts from Bello and Duran and promising results from younger guys like Casas, Winckowski, Wong and Crawford.
By this time next year, Mayer and Rafaela could be in the big leagues along with Drohan and possibly Valdez, Abreu and Yorke.
Some could be traded or injured, and some will struggle, but that’s a sizable group of young, affordable players.
They should enable the Sox to spend some money on free agents or trade for higher-salaried to filll needed holes.
Six months later and the phrase “tendered a contract to Ryan Brasier” still makes me go manchurian candidate mode... also he’s pitching for the Dodgers now??? What???
Thanks for the nice read. I’m not sure I agree thought on Matt Strahm over Chris Martin. It would be nice to have another lefty like Strahm but overall Martin has been very solid.
One big thing in Bloom’s favor is that he took over a 29th ranked farm system (mlb had it in dead last) and took it firmly into the top10 if not the top5 if you look at the current BP rankings (Mayer and Anthony both in top10). That is what makes championship teams. Dombrowski took a top3 farm from Ben Cherington and flipped Moncada (#1prospext) along with countless top100 guys into Sale and Kimbrel and others. When Dombrowski left we had Casas and nothing. Seriously, check out the list on soxprospects.com. The current farm is full of excitement. Mayer is a prospect on par with Xander; Roman Anthony is barely 19 and blowing up A+ (baseball prospectus ranks him #9), Rafaela is going to be the CF of the future, Bleis is considered one of the highest upside prospects in baseball, Teel is the C of the future and there are another few guys hovering in the top100 like Yorke, Perales, and a few more. I don’t know how 2023 will end, but they can load up for 2024 with the farm they’ve developed. Bloom ( like Cherington before him) should get the credit for that.
Overall I would say it has been a net positive so far. For whatever statistical value JD Martinez holds over Turner, I think Turner's leadership and his willingness to lead has really held this thing together with some of the other newer veterans.
The sulking that happened at the deadline the past two seasons was off-putting to me. The team underperformed last year and the players didn't own that. This year I think the roster has slightly overperformed and can force the front office to be buyers at a time where they thought that they might be sellers. I like that this team has continued to fight when they've been given many reasons to quit.
Turner has been better than JD. By wRC+ JD is at 129 vs Turner at 127, but JD is 100% DH and Turner still plays the field so on WAR Turner is up 1.7 vs 1.3.
Great post Matt. Bloom is in a tricky spot. As you outlined, some of his moves worked and some didn’t, but arguably the biggest one (Yoshida) has been a huge success. He’s made a slightly below .500 team into a slightly above .500 team. If this team finishes 88-74 and sneaks into a wild card, I think we’d call it a successful year. But just as likely seems 78-84 again, in which case a new GM will likely be in place by Christmas.
Regardless of which one happens, the long term trajectory is most concerning to me. This isn’t a franchise brimming with top prospects like Baltimore or the Astros of 2015. They’re largely meh outside of a couple big heralded guys (who don’t always pan out- ask Brian Rose). Short of signing Ohtani and/or 2-3 top shelf pitchers this off-season it’s hard to see how they’re anything more than a fringe wild card contender the next two seasons, at least. That’s the biggest indictment of the Bloom era- for all the talk do building the organization from the ground up—contrary to Dombrowki’s go-for-broke philosophy— you could argue the organization is really no better positioned to contend for a title than it was in August 2019 when Dombrowski was canned.
Anyway thanks for the thoughts, enjoyable read
I'd argue that Bloom has generally made the team worse since he became GM. A lot more talent has exited than has entered. He's lowered payroll and reduced financial obligations, but the overall state of the team looks pretty meh. It's worse, but cheaper.
Thanks, Matt.
While I have quibbles with some of Bloom’s specific actions, I’m a strong believer in the overall approach the Sox are taking.
The reason the Sox are older than most teams is that they signed guys like Turner, Kluber, Paxton, Martin and Jansen to short-term deals. All but Kluber have been excellent this year. None are on long-term deals.
That’s what you do when you’re waiting for your top prospects to arrive. It takes time, but they’re getting close.
This season, we’ve seen major breakouts from Bello and Duran and promising results from younger guys like Casas, Winckowski, Wong and Crawford.
By this time next year, Mayer and Rafaela could be in the big leagues along with Drohan and possibly Valdez, Abreu and Yorke.
Some could be traded or injured, and some will struggle, but that’s a sizable group of young, affordable players.
They should enable the Sox to spend some money on free agents or trade for higher-salaried to filll needed holes.
Six months later and the phrase “tendered a contract to Ryan Brasier” still makes me go manchurian candidate mode... also he’s pitching for the Dodgers now??? What???
I saw the Dodgers signed him but didn't have the stomach to look up his numbers.
Thanks for the nice read. I’m not sure I agree thought on Matt Strahm over Chris Martin. It would be nice to have another lefty like Strahm but overall Martin has been very solid.
Martin is great. He was expensive, but definitely a premium relief arm
One big thing in Bloom’s favor is that he took over a 29th ranked farm system (mlb had it in dead last) and took it firmly into the top10 if not the top5 if you look at the current BP rankings (Mayer and Anthony both in top10). That is what makes championship teams. Dombrowski took a top3 farm from Ben Cherington and flipped Moncada (#1prospext) along with countless top100 guys into Sale and Kimbrel and others. When Dombrowski left we had Casas and nothing. Seriously, check out the list on soxprospects.com. The current farm is full of excitement. Mayer is a prospect on par with Xander; Roman Anthony is barely 19 and blowing up A+ (baseball prospectus ranks him #9), Rafaela is going to be the CF of the future, Bleis is considered one of the highest upside prospects in baseball, Teel is the C of the future and there are another few guys hovering in the top100 like Yorke, Perales, and a few more. I don’t know how 2023 will end, but they can load up for 2024 with the farm they’ve developed. Bloom ( like Cherington before him) should get the credit for that.
Overall I would say it has been a net positive so far. For whatever statistical value JD Martinez holds over Turner, I think Turner's leadership and his willingness to lead has really held this thing together with some of the other newer veterans.
The sulking that happened at the deadline the past two seasons was off-putting to me. The team underperformed last year and the players didn't own that. This year I think the roster has slightly overperformed and can force the front office to be buyers at a time where they thought that they might be sellers. I like that this team has continued to fight when they've been given many reasons to quit.
Turner has been better than JD. By wRC+ JD is at 129 vs Turner at 127, but JD is 100% DH and Turner still plays the field so on WAR Turner is up 1.7 vs 1.3.
You could say the rose is off the Bloom