Halftime! How's Chaim Bloom's Off-season looking?

Looking back at the moves made during the most pivotal of Red Sox off-seasons

Photo by Shihab Chowdhury on Unsplash

Last off-season was to be a pivotal one for Chaim Bloom. After an ALCS appearance the previous season, the team floundered in 2022. Going into the 2023 season, his fourth on the job, pressure mounted on Bloom to turn the Red Sox into a winner.

We can’t possibly know the full repercussions of all of the decisions that were made over the 2022-23 off-season after a half a season but we have three and a half months more knowledge than we did when the moves were initially made. So: backseat driving time! Let’s take a look back at each move and, with the benefit of (some!) hindsight, see how Bloom’s choices are playing out.

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A quick note, this isn’t going to be in order, just a general listing of moves and what the results have been so far and what they figure to be going forward.

Released Franchy Cordero

Cordero was the big prize from Kansas City in the Andrew Benintendi trade (before the 2021 season), but despite obvious tools and a winning personality, he never really hit (or played defense) while in Boston. So after two seasons in Boston, Bloom pulled the plug and set Cordero free. He caught on with the Yankees (because of course) on a minor league deal after his release, and made it up to the major leagues a few times. He did have some initial success (because of course) but as of press time he’s been sent back to Triple-A after hitting .158/.186/.386 in 20 games for New York.

Verdict: It was probably time to say good-bye, and Franchy hasn’t done anything this season to contradict his release.

Kept Rob Refsnyder

The Red Sox picked up Refsnyder after he was DFA’d by Minnesota before the 2022 season. He responded by putting up a 146 wRC+, mostly by clubbing the crap out of lefties (though he hit righties okay for a bench bat, too). Despite that, there was ample data showing Refsnyder to be a below average hitter and a below average defensive outfielder, so it wasn’t at all clear the Red Sox would offer him a contract for the 2023 season. But they did! Predictably Refsnyder hasn’t been 2022-good, but after a slow start, he’s contributing with the bat (a .915 OPS vs lefties) and playing passable defense all around the outfield.

Verdict: So far so good. The issue for Refsnyder is facing righties (.505 OPS vs. RHP in 2023), but as a strict platoon outfielder and useful pinch-hitter, he’s been quite good.

Released Eric Hosmer

After a strong end to the 2021 season, the Red Sox gave the first base job to Bobby Dalbec for the 2022 season. Dalbec did just about everything he could to give it back. By August the Red Sox found themselves at the bottom of just about all first base rankings, and, desperate for mere competency at the position, acquired Eric Hosmer from the Padres for former first round pick Jay Groome (who currently sports an 8.69 ERA in Triple-A for San Diego). Hosmer didn’t really solve the problem he was brought in to fix (he put up a .631 OPS in 14 games for the Red Sox), so following the season, Bloom made the decision to release him. This effectively handed the first base job to top prospect Triston Casas.

So how’s all that going then? Hosmer seems pretty cooked, having somehow posted a worse OPS with the Cubs this season than he did in his short time in Boston. And in fact the Cubs released Hosmer on May 25th, a fact that somehow escaped my numerous “Eric Hosmer” news search emails. Meanwhile, Casas has struggled as well, but that’s in comparison to a regular MLB hitter. By hOPS+, which compares players to Eric Hosmer, Casas has an hOPS+ of 275 (with 100 being Eric Hosmer). Ignoring for a moment silly made-up statistics, we can just note that Casas has been the better player, and there’s still hope Casas can continue to develop into the middle of the order bat scouts expect him to be, which isn’t true of Hosmer.

Verdict: That was the right move, and it should pay off even more as Casas grows and develops. In fact, going into Friday’s game, Casas has a .727 OPS, which is about what Hosmer has done at the plate since 2018.

Traded Matt Barnes for Richard Bleier

Can a trade be a lose/lose? Bleier was brought in to fix a specific problem in the bullpen, that of a lefty who can get lefties out. But, despite throwing from the left side and a bit side-armed, Bleier has been getting lit up by lefties. Meanwhile, Matt Barnes has been pretty, well… awful for the Marlins, putting up an ERA+ 20 percent below league average. Right now he’s kinda getting BABIP’d, but at least as far as the results are concerned, neither pitcher has been what their new teams had hoped for.

Verdict: It was a trade that made sense in the moment, or at least it could be argued that it made sense, but if you’re grading it now, which we are, they traded a younger bad reliever for an older bad, and now injured reliever. Ultimately dealing Barnes probably wasn’t the right move, but getting Bleier back wasn’t a good return (admitting also that there couldn’t have been a long line of teams knocking down the Red Sox door to take on Matt Barnes).

Speaking of mistakes…

Tendered a contract to Ryan Brasier

The Red Sox odd infatuation with Ryan Brasier continued during the off-season as they opted to not only keep him around at the expense of numerous other players, but to do it at a cost of $2 million. This despite Brasier getting hit around pretty badly last season. It seemed a relatively easy decision to not offer Brasier a deal considering the cost, his recent production, his age (35), and the fact that he’d really only had two good seasons in his career and one of those seasons consisted of just 12 innings.

That all said, it’s worth pointing out that every year a whole bunch of weird relievers seem to step forward and be really good and there doesn’t seem to be a whole lot of rhyme or reason to why or who, so perhaps keeping a guy who you like and who has good pitch characteristics (or something) isn’t the nuttiest idea ever. And while $2 million is a lot of money to flush down a hole, if Brasier had been actually good, it would’ve been a massive bargain.

Either way, it didn’t work. Brasier was bad. Again. And eventually the team had to admit their mistake and cut him, which they did.

Verdict: So, oops, I guess, but certainly not the biggest oops. A small oops.

Kept Reese McGuire and Connor Wong as the team’s catching duo

There were many who wanted the Red Sox to deal Marcelo Mayer or some other big name prospect package for Sean Murphy. And maybe that would’ve been a good idea. Murphy was dealt to Atlanta, promptly signed a team-friendly contract extension (as all baseball players are required to do upon touching down at Atlanta airport), and is currently an MVP candidate in the middle of a stacked Braves lineup.

But the Red Sox went another route, holding on to Reese McGuire and elevating Connor Wong to the major leagues as his nominal backup. So far it’s working out… ok. The duo has combined for an 85 wRC+, which considering they’re catchers, is fine if certainly not outstanding. Of course, Braves catchers (read: Murphy) lead baseball in catcher WAR and wRC+, both by a lot, so… yeah.

Verdict: Not the best available option, but an acceptable option at a low cost. At least so far, the Red Sox have at least held serve with McGuire and Wong.

Signed Rafael Devers to 10 year contract extension

This one is just full to the brim of other things. There’s the Mookie trade, losing Jon Lester, losing Xander Bogaerts… heck, if you really want to do it all the way, throw Roger Clemens, Wade Boggs, and Nomar on the pile too. The Red Sox have done a downright lousy job of keeping their star players over the past several decades, so it came as a huge relief when the team announced they’d signed Rafael Devers to a 10 year contract extension.

Will Devers be worth the money? We can’t know that after just three and a half months, even with an admittedly slow start to the season by Devers. It’s not been the most optimism-inspiring months from Devers, but if I might take my dispassionate analyst hat off for a moment, I’ll offer the following: Honestly, who gives a crap? The Red Sox had a 26-year-old star third baseman and they didn’t trade him or let him leave via free agency. For all his warts and the slow(ish) start to the year he’s had, that’s a damn win. Of course I think there’s a lot more in there (will he ever learn to take a pitch?), but again, who cares? Devers is staying.

Verdict: I’m honestly not sure the Red Sox front office could’ve remained in place had they not done this. Which is to say they painted themselves into a corner and forced their own hands, which isn’t something you want to do. And while that all may be true, I don’t have any problem with them spending $300 million on keeping Devers here forever. It would have been nice if they’d decided to do the same for Mookie and Xander, but now I’m just being greedy, I guess.

And speaking of the X Man, now we come to the part where the Red Sox effectively dismantled what remained of the 2018 World Series-winning squad.

Xander Bogaerts signs huge contract with San Diego Padres

So much has been written about this contract that I won’t rehash it all here, mostly because I’d just end up in tears on the floor. The point is, the Red Sox opted to let franchise icon Xander Bogaerts get to free agency and then they opted to not match (or really come anywhere near) the best offer. As of now, Bogaerts isn’t hitting particularly well in San Diego, though he’s been fine on both sides of the ball. He’ll pick it up, though the power is kind of a concern going forward. So much of his 2022 batting line rested on ground balls getting through the infield. Regardless, it’s not our problem anymore. He’s gone. It still hurts, if I’m honest, at least as a fan. But a few months removed, it can be argued that it was the right thing to do, at least once he reached free agency. If you do want to make that argument though, I wouldn’t look at the fact that the Red Sox currently rank 29th in production from shortstop. Just don’t look at it.

Verdict: The Red Sox are in some trouble at shortstop until Marcelo Mayer comes walking through that door sometime in late 2024 or 2025 (if all things go well), but given what Bogaerts has done in San Diego so far, it’s hard to count letting him go as a huge team-destroying mistake. It would’ve been nice if they’d done a bit more to replace him, but we’ll come to that.

Nathan Eovaldi signs two-year deal with Texas

Eovaldi is having a great season (2.83 ERA in 117.2 innings, already worth three wins) and would be a great addition to the Sox rotation right now. However, he’s also a 33-year-old two-time Tommy John surgery recipient, so there’s that too. I mean, at some point when you’re choosing between different pitchers, you’re just picking between bombs with different and unknowable amounts of time remaining before they go off. Eovaldi could go off at any time, but so could any pitcher. For what it’s worth, Eovaldi has gotten by so far this season by not allowing home runs. If that changes you’ll probably hear less about how he’s a Cy Young contender and more about how the Rangers don’t hope his 2026 option vests.

Verdict: It doesn’t look good now, especially with the money they spent to bring in Corey Kluber, so put it in the ‘bad no no’ column. That said, I’m betting things don’t look so awful by the time the season comes to an end. At least on the Eovaldi side of things; not so much with the Kluber side.

Omnibus 1: Players Going (Allowed the following players to sign elsewhere Rich Hill, JD Martinez, Matt Strahm, Michael Wacha, Tommy Pham)

Losing Martinez is probably the biggest of these, but they replaced him almost straight up with Justin Turner. Turner is a few years older, but he’s more spry (something you say about old people) and can actually play the field every other week. That gives the Red Sox a bit more flexibility (which they f’n LOVE). As for production, both players are having very good seasons at the plate. For Turner it’s a bit more on-base heavy, and for JD the production comes more from slugging percentage. Either way, though.

As for the rest, Strahm has been good, even starting nine games for the injury-depleted Phillies. Wacha is doing his smoke ‘n mirrors act in San Diego where his ERA is really good but nobody can quite figure out why. Rich Hill is trying a similar thing in Pittsburgh. Pham signed with the Mets, as all players do to finish their careers, and he’s been a good fourth outfielder.

Verdicts: At this point, you’d definitely take JD over Turner, Strahm over Chris Martin, and Wacha over Kluber. Hill has been above replacement level in Pittsburgh, and Pham has been a shade below league average with the bat in New York. It’s almost like the 2022 team wasn’t really that bad!

As for the decisions themselves, well, while you’d rather have Wacha over Kluber, Kluber signed a one year deal and Wacha has a four year contract. So. Yeah. Hill is 43 years old with an ERA approaching five so hard to be too upset about that. Pham is almost league average coming off the bench, which is nice, but he’s not a good defensive outfielder and his splits don’t shout “Platoon me!” either.

The one I keep coming back to is JD versus Turner. They’re both older players so it’s probably hard to know when the cliff is coming, but right now JD is a middle of the order guy because he’s crushing the ball. Turner is a middle of the order guy because his on-base percentage is good and he has a nice beard. That all said, while you’d definitely prefer JD at this point in time, pick a different point later this season and don’t be surprised if the calculus has shifted significantly.

Omnibus 2: Players Arriving (Signed Masataka Yoshida, Justin Turner, Kenley Jansen, Corey Kluber, Adam Duvall, Chris Martin, Joely Rodriguez, and traded for Adalberto Mondesi)

This is where the remaking of the roster took place. With all these guys, the Red Sox added a starting left fielder on a hundred million dollar contract, three relievers, a starting DH, a starting pitcher, and a starting shortstop. Kluber has been unplayably bad and has since been shuttled off to long relief and an IL stint. Mondesi, Martin, Rodriguez, and Duvall have missed large chunks if not all of the season with injuries, though Martin and Rodriguez are now back (with varying degrees of effectiveness). Despite being the team’s lone All Star representative, Jansen has been more fine than outstanding.

Yoshida started off badly, but since mid-April he’s been one of the best hitters in baseball. He’s getting on base as well as Mike Trout and Vlad Guerrero, Jr., and his power has been better than expected. Yes, he’s not a good outfielder, but he’s not unplayably bad out there. Through late May he’s been the star outfielder the Red Sox (and not really anyone else) expected they had acquired. And considering what just about everyone said about him before and after he signed, this has to be a huge feather in Chaim Bloom’s cap. If anything at this point, the Red Sox should be criticized for not adding a sixth season onto Yoshida’s contract.

Verdicts: Given last season’s bullpen and the dearth of potential in-house options, the Red Sox had to go out and get relievers. That they did is a good start. More specifically, Martin and Jansen have been, on the whole, good additions, while Rodriguez has been, on the whole, bad. But it’s worth pointing out he’s also been injured often, so perhaps some grace is in order while he returns to full health. Certainly these aren’t the three best relievers in baseball, so if you want to kill the Red Sox front office for not identifying those three guys last off-season, whoever they are, feel free. But given that there’s a significant dice roll required with each reliever, I feel like the signings have all been good or at least figure to provide enough value going forward that no negative words need be written about these signings at this point.

Yoshida is a huge win. He was panned after signing almost immediately, with people saying things that you’d say if the Red Sox had just signed a bench player to a five year, $100 million contract. There’s significant risk in going against the grain, so A) doing it and B), being right about it is pretty impressive. This is almost exactly the kind of move Bloom was brought to Boston to make: a signing that simultaneously went against the grain and flexed the team’s spending muscles.

The only big loss on here has to be Adalberto Mondesi, the young(ish) and always hurt shortstop the Red Sox picked up from the Royals following the Bogaerts defection. To this point, Mondesi has been nonexistent, a ghost both in production and presence. Is he rehabbing? Is he getting healthier? Is he alive? Has he passed from this earthly realm? Did he head to the rest room sometime in mid April and just hasn’t come back yet? Who knows! We get no information on him at all. He’s a nonentity, unmentioned by team officials, the manager, or players. Presumably he’ll show up at some point at the bottom of some sportswriter’s Notes column, a quick mention that he’s begun bi-weekly stretching exercises in between happy 80th birthday wishes to some ex-backup middle infielder you’ve never heard of, and Alex Cora extolling the virtues of long relievers.

Given that the Red Sox gave up Josh Taylor, possessor of an 8.15 ERA and a spot on the 60 day IL due to back surgery and a shoulder impingement, to Kansas City for him, it’s hard to be too hard on Bloom for this most obscure of insurance policies. Still it’d be nice if in the future the Red Sox restricted their trading activities to players who exist.

VERDICT

Look, it’s impossible to say with any level of conviction that the moves made above were the right moves or the wrong moves simply because we have no way of knowing what the other options were. All I can do is say these were the decisions made, and this is how they’ve turned out so far.

With that said, after three and a half months of Red Sox baseball, this is about a .500 team. Last season the Red Sox finished 78-84, again, about .500. So on the whole nothing seems to be much different. This 2023 team can score, which is new(ish) and nice. They’re scoring 4.95 runs per game compared to 4.53 last season.

About half a run a game is a real improvement, but then the other parts of the team, pitching and defense, haven’t been nearly as good. There’s hope the starting pitching will if/when they get healthy, but given how things have gone, I wouldn’t ever project that to happen. And it’s worth noting how bad the team has been defensively. The Boston Globe called the team a defensive “train wreck” a month ago and nothing has really changed on that front. So yeah.

It’s also worth pointing out that, while the outfield has come into focus really well with the help of last off-season’s moves, the middle infield has also been a total mess due to decisions made during that pivotal period.

So where does that all put us? I’d love to hear your thoughts. To me, this team is different, but not really much better than last season’s team. There’s maybe more upside in ‘23, simply because we haven’t seen this team fully healthy yet, but I’m not sure that’s something that should be counted on to happen.

Maybe perhaps most concerning is where the team is long term. Are we building towards something? If so… it’s kinda hard to see what that might be. There are players to be excited about, Casas and Braya Bello being two, but the rest of the team is not particularly young. According to Baseball Reference, the Red Sox have the 11th oldest group of batters in the league and the second oldest pitching staff. Neither strikes me as being in the midst of some sort of youth movement, though the pitching staff sounds like it might need that sometime pretty soon.

I’m planning on writing some soon about the Red Sox minor league system, but as it applies here, there’s not much on the doorstep to alter this mix of players. The Red Sox are kind of in the middle and unless something changes violently one way or the other they figure to stay in that area for the next little bit.

Thanks for reading.