Answering Questions: Does Boston Have Internal Options At Second Base?
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A while back I asked if there were any topics y’all wanted me to cover here at Sox Outsider. I was thinking maybe something about how to pickle onions, or the top five boutiques in Vancouver, Canada, but instead I got Red Sox questions. So I was like, hmmm, okay, I see you guys, you outside-the-box thinkers! I’ll one-up you and actually answer your questions! So I took a stab at the first one below.
In all seriousness, if you have questions or just feel like saying hi, please do down below. I’m always happy and gratified to see people reading, and I love to talk Red Sox (not good at hiding that) so please, don’t be a stranger.
Our question today is…
Can the Red Sox fill second base long term from within the organization? In other words, do they need to make a trade or a free agent signing, and if not, who do they have?
This is a great question. A while back I wrote about some outside solutions to the Boston’s second base problem and, because of the slow off-season, it’s still up-to-date minus Ha-Seong Kim, who has since signed with the Padres. In that piece I mentioned Dustin Pedroia’s knee’s extremely unfortunate encounter with Manny Machado. Since then, April 2017, the Red Sox have a cumulative .260/.320/.375 slash line from second base. By total WAR from second base (which includes a defensive measurement), the Red Sox rank 27th in baseball since the start of the 2017 season. That’s four seasons (total landscaping!) worth of a problem, but the roster has other problems too, so fixing second base internally does have appeal if indeed it can be pulled off.
The lead to do so is Jeter Downs. Downs came over as the top prospect in the Mookie Betts deal last spring (the top guy was Alex Verdugo, but he was already a Major League player). Because of COVID, Downs hasn’t played a game for the Red Sox yet, though he did participate in the alternate training site, effectively minor league camp, during the 2020 season. He’s 22 and last played for the Dodgers Double-A affiliate in Tulsa, OK in 2019, so expecting him to start at Triple-A this season seems reasonable, especially since Double-A may not begin their season until later.
Downs is a bat first type of player, one with pull-side power and a patient enough approach to yield a good on-base percentage. Expect something in the range of .275/.350/.440 or so if things go right, and be happy if more shows up. He’s not a stand-out defender like Pedroia was, but he should be able to hold down the position at around a league-average level. The total package, again, if things go the way they’re expected to, is one of an above average second baseman.
It’s difficult to say when Downs would be ready to take over at second in Boston, but it could be as early as this season given his age, relative experience, and pedigree. (Christopher Smith at Mass Live had a piece about that very thing today, which is worth your time.) The Red Sox watched Downs at the alternate training site so they should have a good idea of where he is and when he’ll be ready, but he’ll almost certainly need at least a few months more in the minors, if not an entire season or more.
The other guy in Boston’s system who projects as a major league regular at second base is Nick Yorke. The Red Sox took Yorke 17th overall in the first round of last year’s abbreviated draft, which was (and remains) a surprising choice. Nobody had Yorke on the list of potential first round picks, but Boston felt strongly about Yorke and, worried he wouldn’t be available when they next picked in the third round, pulled the trigger. They were also able to sign him for less than the slot value at 17 which gave them some extra money, which they spent on Blaze Jordan in the third round. But I digress. Yorke hasn’t played in the minors yet ([shakes fist] COVID!) but, like Downs, he did participate in the alternate training site and reportedly impressed. Just the fact that he was at the site at all is impressive from an outside perspective, considering he was a high schooler just last year, but he apparently hit well considering, though the fielding is a work in progress.
Yorke played shortstop in high school, but projects as a second baseman in the pros. He has an advanced approach at the plate that should yield a higher than league average on-base percentage and allow him hunt for hittable pitches in the zone without chasing too often. His power hasn’t arrived yet, but it’s not uncommon for high schoolers to tap into their power as they move up the minor league ladder. Yorke should be able to play second at around a league average level, so he’s a bit like Downs in overall profile, but he’s 18 years old so he’s much further away. The age also makes the error bars on him a lot further apart. Like virtually all high schoolers, he could fail to make the majors, or make an All Star team. [shruggy emoji]
Those are the big names in the Boston system that project as major league regulars at second base right now. If we’re staying in-house, there are some guys on the major league roster who could potentially hold down the position until the youngsters show up. Michael Chavis is probably tops on that list, though there are very real questions about his ability to hit major league pitching and handle second base defensively. He strikes out a ton (32.8 percent over his MLB career so far) and though he has a big power stroke, he hasn’t been able to make enough solid contact for that to matter outside of a few short hot streaks early on after he was called up. Even if his bat comes around (and I have my doubts there) his defense at second is pretty iffy, as evidenced by the fact that, while the team has a pretty big problem at second, he keeps getting moved off the position. In other words, it doesn’t seem the Red Sox think he can play second base. Chavis seems like a fun guy and when he hits it, the ball goes crazy far, so it’s a fun profile if things work out there, but at this point I’m not optimistic.
Beyond Chavis, and I swear I’m almost done here, the Red Sox grabbed Christian Arroyo off waivers from Cleveland last August. Like Chavis, Arroyo is a former first round draft pick though of the Giants back in 2013 (that’s the draft Boston took Trey Ball seventh overall… I’ll wait while you wash your eyes out with soap). He can probably handle second base full time defensively, but he hasn’t hit enough to warrant an opportunity. The Sox have reportedly liked what they saw from Arroyo after joining the team last season though, and he managed three homers in 14 games and generally looked like he belonged. Stranger things have happened than a former first round pick bouncing around before putting it all together a few stops down the road. And Bloom was in the Rays front office when Tampa acquired Arroyo from San Francisco back in 2017 as part of the Evan Longoria trade, which is a connection of sorts, and interesting though it probably means next to nothing.
So those are the in-house contenders. It’s Chavis and Arroyo, or if something really odd happens, Yairo Munoz could get another shot though he was outrighted off the 40 man roster this off-season so I’m not optimistic about him helping the big club out long-term. If those guys can handle half a season then perhaps Downs could come up and take over for the next half decade. That’s an optimistic take on both counts though, which is why I wrote the previous piece about players the Sox could bring in through free agency.
If the team liked what they saw from Downs at the alternate site last season they might believe he could take over at second base this season, in which case there’s no reason to go out and spend money on the free agent market to tie up the position for multiple future seasons. But I kinda doubt that’s the plan because A) I doubt they possess that much certainty about Downs, even after watching him last summer, and B) I doubt they trust their in-house options enough to be productive long enough for Downs to get ready.
So even if the club really likes Downs, they probably need to bring someone in for 2021, because I don’t see a lot of success coming from Arroyo or Chavis (and they’re both right-handed so you can’t platoon them). We’ll know more about what the club thinks about Downs based on who they bring in and what that person’s contract looks like, but at this point I really do think they need to make an addition from outside the organization.
Thanks for reading! If you liked this, I wrote some other pieces worth checking out: