The San Diego Padres went on a crazy run on Monday reminiscent of a second grader bursting into kindergarten and grabbing all the blocks. In the space of a few hours the Padres pulled off trades for ace starters Blake Snell and Yu Darvish, and signed 25-year-old Korean superstar middle infielder Ha-Seong Kim. This isn’t typically how teams operate, but this is a new baseball frontier.
After losing to the Yankees in the 2003 ALCS, the Red Sox front office identified two needs. First was an ace starter, second was an ace reliever. So they put the full court press on ace starter Curt Schilling and ace reliever Keith Foulke. They offered the most money, yeah, but they worked hard to convince both guys to sign with the Red Sox. In Schilling’s case, GM Theo Epstein and assistant GM Jed Hoyer made multiple trips to Schillings house. They made a presentation to show Schilling how Fenway Park wouldn’t hurt his numbers, and when that didn’t totally convince him, they accepted an invitation to Schilling’s house so they could continue wooing him over Thanksgiving dinner. That’s how badly they wanted those guys to sign with Boston.
Those days are seemingly gone. The Padres didn’t have to prepare any presentations. They didn’t have to fly across the country or skip out on a holiday dinner with their families. All they did was, if we’re honest, flash some money. Yes they gave up prospects to get Darvish and Snell. Good prospects, in fact, especially for Snell, but not their best prospects. Not their second best prospects either, probably. Just good prospects. The thing they did to make the deals happen was take on salary. They got Darvish because they agreed to take on almost all of the $59 million owed to him over the last three years of his contract. They got Snell because they’re paying the $40 million remaining over the last three years of his contract.
I don’t want to undersell the prospects, because they were important, but this was about money. The Rays are trying to cut salary. The Cubs are trying to cut salary. Every team in baseball is seemingly trying to cut salary. Except the Padres. So that’s how they got two aces and four years of a 25-year-old middle infielder who projects to be a starter for a hair more than what the Giants are paying Kevin Gausman, and all in an afternoon. It wasn’t that they caught their competitors napping. Their competitors didn’t care. Things get easier when there isn’t any competition. The Padres won but it was by forfeit.
So why couldn’t the Red Sox have done that? Why didn’t Boston sign Kim when he fit a specific need perfectly? Why didn’t the Red Sox trade for Darvish and Snell when they fit specific needs perfectly? Well, at least in the case of Snell, the Red Sox really didn’t have the prospects, or at least it would’ve cost them most of what they had. It wasn’t feasible. But Darvish and Kim were absolutely on the table, waiting and available, like turkey at the Schilling’s house 16 years ago. Boston had the prospects and the financial might. Like the rest of MLB, they just decided not to.
If opening day was today you could fairly scream and yell that the Red Sox blew it, but it’s not. It’s not for four months, and that’s if we’re lucky. So there’s time. There are lots of other trade opportunities to explore and more than a few free agents to negotiate with, all of whom would fit in Boston’s as-of-now depleted rotation, even the second basemen. The rotation is looking pretty rough. But if you’re looking for the reason Boston didn’t sign Kim and didn’t get involved with the Cubs for Darvish, that’s simple. They didn’t want to spend the money.
Boston is betting they can find similar value to what Darvish and Kim can offer for far less money. This is the essence of why John Henry & Co. fired Dave Dombrowski and hired Chaim Bloom. Dombrowski would’ve made the Darvish deal. Darvish is a big name, a proven pitcher, and a good one. Dombrowski would’ve asked which prospects the Cubs wanted, thought about it for a second, then said, yeah sure, and that would’ve been it. The Red Sox would’ve been better, their farm system would’ve been worse, and Red Sox ownership would’ve been out $60 million. It was that last part that ultimately caused the problem.
Bloom is betting he can spend less and get the same or similar value. It’s not a small bet. The Red Sox owners are stacked with money and can absolutely take on Darvish’s salary or just about any player’s, but of course they’d rather not. They’d rather Bloom sign Matt Andriese and turn him into 75 percent of Darvish at 10 percent the cost. But the reason the Red Sox owners are stacked, or at least one of the reasons, is that the Red Sox are a very valuable asset, and the Red Sox are a very valuable asset because people are very interested in them, watch their games, buy their merchandise, etc. If people stop doing those things, the Red Sox become less valuable. People will do that if the Red Sox stop trying to win, so there’s value to be had in the Dombrowski approach beyond the player. Everything Dombrowski did screamed “I want to win!” That’s a message fans appreciate hearing, as opposed to, say, “I want to turn Matt Andriese into 75 percent of Yu Darvish at 10 percent of the cost!” You’re not going to find that written in a baseball font on the front of a t-shirt. So there’s a line to walk here. Spend enough to make the team good, maybe even great, but not so much that it hurts, not so much that it cuts too severely into the bottom line.
Yu Darvish would’ve looked good in a Boston uniform. So would have Snell, and so would have Kim, but there are other players, other opportunities. In Bloom we trust.
100% agree with your takes here, Matthew. The Red Sox are only committed to spending enough to give off the illusion of trying to compete for titles, but that’s it. Going all in to win? Not going to happen with this ownership again, unless Bloom fails to build something good on the cheap and franchise value takes a hit as fans tune out the Red Sox. NESN ratings were a disaster in 2020 and if they are again in 2021, the clock will already be running out on Chaim.
Any guys out there you think Bloom should have an eye on seeing as he whiffed on Kim? Semien and Hendriks are guys I really like but wondering if Bloom would go after a Schoop and Giles/Treinen sort of combo with a lower price point.