Where The Red Sox Should Spend When The Lockout Ends
So many options! Let's look at them!
What it seems most people thought would be a perfunctory lockout, an ever-so-brief pause in Baseball’s off-season, a blink-and-you’ll-miss-it “hey remember when baseball had that hilariously short [does finger quotes thing] work stoppage?” ha ha, is showing no signs of ending. The Player’s Union and MLB’s lawyers meet every once in a while, scream at each other until one side stomps out, and at that point they need a few weeks to cool down before they repeat the process. It’s not the most productive way to negotiate, probably.
But, at some point, like the pandemic, it will end, even if we can’t see the end from where we sit now. (← the most optimistic sentence I’ve ever written) When that time inevitably comes, the Boston Red Sox will have work to do. Like all teams, their roster remains a work in progress. So in the interest of refreshing your memory as well as my own, I thought I’d take a break from finishing my future Red Sox in the Hall of Fame series (click here to read Part One and Part Two) and look at what the Red Sox need to do when the lockout ends.
But before we get into that, let me take a second to welcome you to the Sox Outsider newsletter. I’m Matt Kory and I’m in charge of putting the words in the right order. If you’re not familiar with my work, I’ve written at The Athletic, FanGraphs, Baseball Prospectus, and a bunch of other reputable sites. But I wanted to write about the Red Sox full time, and I’m very lucky to get to do that here. So please, come along for the ride and subscribe. It’s free. All you need to do is click the red box below. Thanks.
Starting Pitching
[cue Batman music] When last we left our intrepid team, the Red Sox were signing every old and injured pitcher on the free agent market. Rich Hill, James Paxton, and Michael Wacha (who somehow is neither old nor injured) were all signed before the lights went out on the CBA. Presumably the team wasn’t able to reach deals with Aaron Sanchez and Matt Harvey before the final bell.
The end result of all that, combined with the advancement of a number of starting pitching prospects through the minor league system, means the team has some significant depth in the starting rotation going into the season. We can (and very likely will!) cover that depth in more depth in the near future, but for now the Red Sox don’t need to focus on bringing in any more starting pitching. So cross that off the list.
First Base
Before free agency commenced, there was talk of the Red Sox signing a first baseman. Somewhat inexplicably MLB Trade Rumors predicted the Red Sox would sign Freddie Freeman. Surprisingly Freeman is still a free agent and not an Atlanta Brave, but considering that the Red Sox have Bobby Dalbec on a league minimum contract, signing Freeman to big money seems quite unlikely. Dalbec was an above league average hitter last season if very slightly below the league average first baseman, so the upgrade from him would be less, if you assume that’s his baseline.
Then add top prospect and fellow first baseman Triston Casas to the pile and it makes even less sense to bring in a long term first baseman. Adding a short term platoon partner could improve the roster on the margins, but that’s probably not the spot the team should be spending big money.
Left Side of the Infield
Here’s where things get complicated, and especially so considering the likely shortened timeline teams will be dealing with when ever a new CBA is agreed to. The Red Sox have two great hitters who happen to be maybe not so great fielders playing shortstop and third base. Xander Bogaerts can opt out of his long term contract after the 2022 season and very likely will do so. Rafael Devers has two more seasons of team control and will reach free agency after the 2023 season. Meanwhile the Red Sox need to shore up their infield defense which was pretty rough last season. So figuring out this particular entanglement during this off-season would seem to be of paramount importance. How to do that? Well, that’s a lot tougher.
As it turns out, I’ve written about this before, so if you want to read more in depth about this problem, I’ve got you covered right here. The short version is that, with the respective contractual timelines and the free agent market flush with star shortstops, this is the off-season to do something, if indeed someone were to do something which someone doesn’t have to do. All of which is to say put a pin in this one. We’ll come back to it.
Second Base
This one is complicated by the item above. For example, signing Carlos Correa, popular as that would be, would presumably clean up second base as well because Bogaerts would move there at least for the 2022 season. Beyond something earth shattering like that, it seems this is a position the team will likely keep to in-house options. Both Christian Arroyo and Enrique Hernandez play the position well enough, and truth be told, after Marcus Semien signed with the Texas Rangers, there just aren’t any big bats available on the market. Perhaps Trevor Story could be persuaded to come to Boston on a short-term deal to play second base, though his agent has indicated he’s not interested in switching positions nor in signing a short-term deal. So maybe not.
Catcher
Here’s where things get kinda weird. You might have thought the Red Sox were set at catcher. They have both Christian Vazquez and Kevin Plawecki under contract for next season, and both performed well enough in 2021. Neither are so old you’d expect any kind of huge fall off in performance, so good enough, right? Except the Red Sox actively worked to trade for Jacob Stallings of the Pirates right up until he was dealt to the Marlins. So maybe the front office isn’t quite as happy with the production behind the plate as we thought.
That said, if there is to be a change at catcher, it’ll likely be through a trade as the list of available catchers on the free agent market is a sad one indeed.
Outfield
Here’s what we’ve been leading up to this whole time. Yes, it’s me, the guy who spends 800 words ‘leading up to’ something. Before the Hunter Renfroe trade, the Red Sox were pretty set in the outfield. Alex Verdugo in left, Renfroe in right, and Enrique Hernandez in center field. Put Jarren Duran back in Triple-A and give him some time to work on his defense and figure out which stance he likes best. Maybe add a veteran fourth outfielder-type to the bench whose name is NOT Marwin Gonzalez, but beyond that, you’re good.
Except, no, because Chaim Bloom effectively traded the starting right fielder for the backup fourth outfielder in Jackie Bradley Jr (yes, I know, there were prospects involved and I actually like the trade, but the effect on the major league roster is as I described, at least for now). That leaves the team with few options beyond adding a regular right fielder from outside the organization. Jarren Duran could be pressed into regular duty, but nothing he did at the major league level last season indicates he is ready for such a role. Beyond him, the upper levels of the system are pretty barren when it comes to outfielders.
So this is where it probably makes the most sense to spend some money. The rumors about Japanese outfielder Seiya Suzuki have been flying, and there is likely a lot of truth to them given Suzuki’s fit with respect to the current Red Sox roster. Suzuki is said to be a good fielder with a ton of pop in his bat and a great batting eye. It’s always difficult to figure out how a player’s tools with translate after changing leagues, but the best evaluators seem quite bullish on Suzuki’s prospects. If they’re correct, well that’s exactly what the Red Sox need. Suzuki fits perfectly into the Red Sox lineup too. Just cross out “Renfroe” and write in “Suzuki” and you’re done.
If Suzuki signs elsewhere, the Red Sox aren’t out of chances. They can still throw a barrel of money at Kyle Schwarber and that likely isn’t a bad outcome either. It doesn’t fix the team’s defensive issues in the same way Suzuki would, and in fact it might make them worse as it would likely require Alex Verdugo to play right field full time, but that would only be for a season before JD Martinez’s contract ends and the DH spot opens up.
Beyond Schwarber, Kris Bryant is still out there on the market. His defensive flexibility fits what the Red Sox like, as Bryant has played all three outfield positions and third base as recently as last season. Bryant is also a good if not great hitter, though he’s probably not a whole lot worse of a hitter than Schwarber going forward. The thing is, he’s likely going to be much more expensive, and while you can talk yourself into Schwarber being a great, middle of the order hitter because of what he did last season in DC and Boston, that particular delusion is much harder to force upon one’s self when it comes to Bryant. He’s good, occasionally very good, but he’s not great. But he can field, though it’s debatable how good a fit he would be in Fenway Park’s right field.
After that, there’s Nick Castellanos who would be a far worse fit in Fenway Park’s right field. Castellanos is basically Schwarber (offensively inconsistent though on occasion quite good but can’t play defense) but is looking for a bigger contract. So he would likely fall further down the list of preferable options.
And maybe even to the bottom because after Castellanos, well, there’s not a whole lot of impact left on the free agent market. So that’s kinda the list there. Suzuki, but if not Suzuki then Schwarber, but if not Schwarber then maybe Bryant or Castellanos or maybe Chaim Bloom gets creative and starts making some crazy trades that keep Matt up at night.
The good thing about investing in the outfield is that the farm system isn’t providing in that space at this moment or likely in the near future, so bringing in someone from the outside is going to likely be necessary anyway. Beyond that, the option to improve the team defense is there, and could be realized at least with Suzuki. Or maybe Bloom blows everything up by trading Bogaerts and Devers and you and I decide you know what maybe we’ll just watch curling.
Did I miss something? Is there something you’d like to see me write about? Drop it in the comments. Let’s have a conversation! I’d love to hear from you.
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