Who Will The Next Red Sox Hall of Famer Be? Part Two
In this, the second of three installments on this topic, we examine the retired players who will be on the ballot in coming seasons
Yesterday I wrote about the ex-Red Sox currently on the Hall of Fame ballot. It wasn’t a large group, just Manny Ramirez and Billy Wagner, but it was a fun piece. You can read that right here but the short version is Wagner, who threw all of 13 innings for the Red Sox back in 2009, seems to be the more palatable ex-Red Sox to the Baseball Writers when it comes to potential Hall admittance. Ramirez’s two failed PED tests are likely to speak more loudly to those Gatekeepers of the Hall than his 555 career homers or any of his other impressive stats ever could. Sadly in my view, but that’s where we are.
I promised that today we’d look at the former Red Sox who are retired but have yet to reach the ballot, and that’s exactly what we’re doing. My gosh I’m a man of my word, huh? So below, please find my words on ex-Red Sox who will get their first shot on the ballot next year (2023), or in 2024, 2025, or 2026. Let’s get into it!
But first! This is the Sox Outsider newsletter and I’m Matt Kory. I do the writing around here. You might know me from The Athletic, FanGraphs, Sports on Earth, Baseball Prospectus, and other sites. This is my main gig now and I’m super excited about it (though I’d be more excited if we got an actual off-season but I’ll whine about that another time). So please, come along for the ride with me and subscribe. It’s free, and fun, and hopefully other good stuff too. Thanks!
Entering The Ballot
Jacoby Ellsbury (2023)
Embedded Red Sox Jacoby Ellsbury is, sadly, probably a one-and-done on the ballot guy. Despite a very good career in which he accumulated 31.2 bWAR, a sizable and impressive total, it’s not good enough to come within sniffing distance of the Hall. Ellsbury’s best season was undoubtedly his 2011 in which he hit .321/.377/.552 with 31 homers. He finished second for the AL MVP that season, a season worth 7.5 WAR according to Baseball Reference. A few more of those and fewer 2010s (or anything after 2014) and we’d be talking, but sadly, it wasn’t to be.
He’ll probably get a few sympathy votes and that’ll be it. Poor Jacoby will have to go play battle of the World Series rings in his million dollar mansion.
John Lackey (2023)
Lackey pitched for 15 years and threw over 2,800 innings in his career. He has three World Series rings with three different teams (the 2002 Angels, the 2013 Red Sox, and the 2016 Cubs), and managed 38 bWAR in his career. But again, like Ellsbury, a fantastic career, but not Hall worthy.
Mike Napoli (2023)
If there was a Hall of Stumbling Drunkenly Down Boylston Street, Mike Napoli would be an inner circle inductee. Sadly for him, this is more baseball focused than that. As it stands, he’s in the same camp as Ellsbury and Lackey. Probably a member of the Hall of Very Good or the Hall of Pretty Notable or the Hall of Rakes Like Hell, but not good enough for long enough to achieve the Hall of Fame.
Adrian Beltre (2024)
Now we’re cooking with gas. Beltre, who’s career renaissance began with a one-year contract with the Red Sox in 2010, and who is responsible for Jacoby Ellsbury playing just 18 games that year thanks to a tackle that wouldn’t be out of place in Foxborough, is one of the best third baseman of all time. He should be a first ballot Hall of Famer.
Beltre accumulated 84 fWAR over the course of his career, putting him ahead of Brooks Robinson, Miguel Cabrera, Scott Rolen, and Paul Molitor, to name a few. By WAR, Beltre’s career was as valuable as Chipper Jones, Wade Boggs, and George Brett. That’s heady company. He’s only really surpassed by Mike Schmidt, Alex Rodriguez (who only played part of his career at third base) and Eddie Mathews. Wade Boggs is ahead of him, but not by much. The end result is supremely impressive and worthy of first ballot inclusion.
If you don’t remember Beltre’s time in Boston, you don’t remember 2010, or you just don’t remember Beltre, you’re missing out. He was without a doubt one of the most fun players to pass through Boston. There was homering from one knee (he did this frequently), freaking out if anyone touched his head, his propensity to avoid tags by jetting off in any random direction regardless of basepaths, and of course the insane defense at third base. Watch this to jog your memory.
He should be voted in on the first ballot when he becomes eligible in two years.
Victor Martinez (2024)
Another short time Red Sox, Martinez came over to Boston from Cleveland before leaving after 180 games to sign a deal in Detroit. In the meantime, Martinez caught, played first, and DH’d on occasion. He killed it regardless of where he was. Ultimately though, while he was a very good hitter, he wasn’t a great hitter, and he wasn’t a good enough (or healthy enough) catcher to play the position regularly enough to make it his primary spot. The end result is a career in line with Ellsbury et al. I suspect the Hall voters will point that out in 2024.
Dustin Pedroia (2025)
So far things have been pretty clean cut. Beltre should be in, everyone else, thanks, but no. That ends here. Dustin Pedroia is, in my mind, a Hall of Famer, but the numbers aren’t so clear on that fact. I imagine we’ll get into the weeds on this more than you’d like by the time Pedroia’s time on the ballot arrives in three years, but for now it’s worth noting that, by bWAR, Pedroia ranks as the 19th best second baseman of all time. Fourteen of the players ahead of him on the list are in the Hall while six players behind him are in.
Of the five players ahead of him who aren’t in, two clearly should be in Bobby Grich and Lou Whitaker. Robinson Cano is close to the top of the list but still active and thus not eligible yet, though his PED suspensions will likely prevent his election regardless. The other two ahead of Pedroia are Chase Utley and Willie Randolph. Randolph was bizarrely one-and-done on the ballot and Utley is coming up for the first time in 2024. If Utley gets in, and he stands a good shot, Pedroia has a good chance as well.*
*Not that this is all about WAR. It really isn’t, but WAR is a good shorthand in pieces like this, as it prevents me from having to throw out a ton of other numbers. We’ll certainly be discussing Pedroia’s candidacy for the Hall in much more detail closer to his arrival on the ballot in 2025. That gives us three years to get our VOTE PETEY t-shirts sized and ordered.
Ian Kinsler (2025)
Kinsler, who played college ball with Pedroia and was added to the Red Sox roster at the trade deadline in 2018 mostly because Pedroia was too injured to play, had a very similar career to his ex-teammate. Their career WARs are almost identical. Pedroia was the better defender (though Kinsler was no slouch in the field, especially in his youth) but Kinsler was the slightly better hitter according to park-adjusted numbers. You have to think if one gets in, so does the other.
Hanley Ramirez (2025)
Hanley was on a Hall of Fame path in his mid-20s, but put together just one stand-out season after age 25. In his first four seasons he accounted for 24.4 bWAR, but in the next 10 following that, just 14.7. It was a bit of a quick burn for Hanley, though the end result was still something to be proud of. Regardless, decidedly not a Hall of Famer.
Rick Porcello (2026)
Love Porcello and he’ll always have his Cy Young Award (yes that really happened) but just nope.
So that’s the ex-Red Sox who aren’t playing anymore but haven’t yet reached the ballot. Tomorrow (or potentially on Thursday, we’ll see) I’ll look at guys who are still active. Mookie talk incoming!
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