Tossed Salads and Scrambled Eggs: Red Sox Split in Seattle

I was there! For one of the bad ones!

Photo by Thom Milkovic on Unsplash

There is a scene in Austin Powers where a guy is about to be run over by a steamroller. From up close, we see him yelling, “NO! NOOOO!!!!” Then we see the steamroller coming at him but from up close, then we see him yelling from up close, then the steamroller, then guy, then roller, but always from super close. Then the camera pulls all the way back and the steamroller is very far away from the guy and moving very slowly. This accident is extremely preventable! That’s what it felt like to see Julio Rodriguez beat the Red Sox in the 10th inning on Saturday night in Seattle.

Had I not been there to see it, it probably wouldn’t have ruined my night the way it did. But I was there! I did see it! And it did ruin my night in just that special sort of way that only seeing your team lose in excruciating fashion up close and in person can. Baseball is back, baby!

Some notes on an early season series split. Happy Monday!

Considering the specific nature of the games, splitting a four game series with the Mariners seems like a missed opportunity. The Red Sox had a 3-1 lead in the 10th on Saturday night and lost, and they gave up one run and just four hits on Friday and somehow lost that one as well. But, stretching the viewpoint out a bit, that steamroller isn’t so close. Splitting a four game series on the road, especially in Seattle against their top four starters, can be seen as a success without that much contortion. At least it’s not a failure. At least not a raging tirefire of a failure. Except Saturday’s game that I was there for. That was a raging tirefire of a failure. Unless you could just turn the TV off and go to bed. Then it was probably disappointing but, you know, fine.

Team Defense

Let’s start here, and by “start” I mean after about 500 words let’s discuss actual baseball. It’s been under-discussed how important team defense is to winning. Last year the Red Sox team defense was quite bad. This year I think it should be better, but better from bad doesn’t mean good. It could still be bad and be better at the same time. Getting better from bad doesn’t equal good. Better can still be bad. It’s better to be better but better can still be bad not good if you’re bad (not good). We’re all clear on this now I assume.

Four games in, early returns are promising, in a spring training, ignore-the-bad-and-focus-on-the-good kinda way. Trevor Story has looked very good at shortstop, and Cedanne Rafaela made some big defensive plays in center field. I saw some deft fielding by Triston Casas as well.

Going by FanGraphs numbers, the 2023 Red Sox were one of the worst defensive teams in baseball at center field and shortstop. Those are two pretty important positions, so it stands to reason a team that’s bad defensively in those two spots would be bad defensively full stop. And they were! There was more to it, of course, but also…

There’s no guarantee Rafaela will hit. In fact, there’s no guarantee he’s not swinging at pitches as I type these words hours before the start of Monday’s game. But if he hits just enough, his defense in center field is going to make a major difference for this team. Story is pretty much the same way. He doesn’t have to hit a lot to be a valuable part of the team. It would help! I’m not against it! He had two hits on Sunday, one of which was hard-hit-ish. So, okay? But having him in the field every day is going to make a major difference for the Red Sox.

On the other hand, Wilyer Abreu and Enmanuel Valdez. I feel like Abreu can competently play right field if he’s allowed to stay out there and get comfortable. He should be fine. His brutal misplay of a pretty easy grounder in right on Saturday caused at least six percent of my hair to instantly fall out but I do think he’ll be fine. My scalp less so.

Speaking of brutal, Valdez! I feel about Valdez’s defense the way I feel about Abreu’s offense, and I feel about Valdez’s offense the way I feel about Abreu’s defense. If that makes any sense. If we could somehow combine these two guys into one, well he’d either be very good or we could just cut him immediately.

There’s always a feeling out period early in the season. Can this guy handle this role? Is this guy a major league quality player? The goal is to make those decisions before too much damage is done and to have someone who can step in and competently replace people who can’t hack it. I’m not sure the Red Sox are there on that second one, but at least in theory it’s still early on some of these guys and their roles.

I am at least encouraged about the 2024 Red Sox ability to play defense, even if right now that includes Valdez at second base. And I haven’t even mentioned Tyler O’Neill yet! And now I have! Tyler O’Neill! We have a pretty good track record on O’Neill: oft-injured guy whose muscles are bigger than his production. But at least through four games, dude has crushed it in the field and at the plate. Right now, from this extremely limited sample, Rafaela in center and O’Neill in right seems pretty good! Talk to me in May and things might be different, but here and now, the defense is legit and the offense is promising. For now, very happy to take that.

The Rotation!

Did you ever think there would be a time at any point this season when the Red Sox would possess the second best rotation in baseball? Like, a month into the season? A week? A day? A single damn pitch? I’d have taken NO on every one of those and been wrong, because, at least as of right now, four games into the year, this is how things are looking.

Pardon me for a moment while I run in circles around the room screaming. Look, just for a moment, I don’t care about context. If Boston had opened at home against the A’s or White Sox or Rockies, I wouldn’t have predicted this. Brayan Bello was good! Nick Pivetta was fantastic! Kutter Crawford was great! And Garrett Whitlock was spectacular!

As a wise baseball fan once told me, the secret to being good is to stay healthy, and she is absolutely right. That’s going to be one of the big tricks here, because Cooper Criswell is, in fact, coming through that door as soon as someone gets hurt. And that could be rough, especially if he doesn’t immediately turn around and walk back out the door again. There just isn’t what we in the industry call “depth.” That’s what everyone calls it, but we in the industry also call it that.

So: early returns on the rotation are fantastic, better than anyone had any right to expect. If the Red Sox starters can pitch like that or even kinda in the general vicinity of that with any regularity, this team will surprise some people. Actually everyone. It will surprise everyone because nobody, not you, not me, not Craig Breslow, expects this. But, nobody expected the Spanish Inquisition either, so you never know.

Devers: Important

Red Sox with Rafael Devers: 2-0
Red Sox without Rafael Devers: 0-2

Can we extend him again?

Devers is hitting .300/.300/.700, which is maybe the most Rafael Devers slash line I can imagine. Here are the top five exit velocities from the two games Devers has played in (courtesy of Baseball Savant).

Thursdays’ game:

Sunday’s game:

You will note a Mr. Rafael Devers featuring prominently on both charts. Dude just hits rockets. It’s not breaking any news to say his presence is extremely important to the Red Sox lineup, and I don’t think it’s a coincidence that the Red Sox scored 11 runs combined in the two games he played in and totaled just four runs in the two he missed. Here’s hoping that bothersome shoulder fully heals soon.

Finishing up….

All in all, it was a pretty encouraging series in that it wasn’t really discouraging at all. Except if you had to be there for Saturday’s game. That suuuuucked (but actually it was fun up until that final point). On to Oakland and then LA to see the Angels. It feels odd to say, but there’s a chance to make some noise here early against these teams.

That’s probably enough on a four game series, except to say if you ever get a chance to catch a game in Seattle I highly recommend it. It’s a great ballpark, the city is wonderful, and there’s more good coffee and beer than even I know what to do with.

Thanks for reading.