You are spot on. If Xander does truly want to stay — I believe he does — then there’s a deal to be made.
The Sox have lots of holes to fill this winter, and they shouldn’t make it worse by letting their best player leave.
I’m not a big “intangibles” guy. Not saying they don’t matter, but they are almost always overrated.
But they matter in this case. Xander is a clubhouse leader on a multicultural team. He plays hard, he plays hurt and he’s demonstrated the ability to thrive and win in Boston.
We can live with his SS defense into Mayer arrives.
I completely agree that they should sign Xander, but if you do that you are committing to letting Devers go. There is no way they are going to tie up ~$600 million in Story, Bogaerts and Devers, especially with the shift banned and their top prospect a potential 5 tool SS (even if he is 2-3 years away from the bigs).
- His collision with Verdugo this season messed up his swing and mechanics for a while. Then he worked through it and began homering again. There's no reason to think that if he's healthy next year, his power won't be more consistent. And it's impressive that even while struggling at the plate this summer, he still managed to get on base and collect hits. He already has more doubles than he did at the end of last year.
- David Ortiz has consistently reminded the world this summer that many players cannot handle the environment and spotlight in Boston. It's something that's been proven over and over in the last two decades. Bogaerts not only handles the scrutiny of the Boston microscope, but thrives here. That is not a variable to mess with or take lightly; rather, it should be a key reason to keep him around.
- Neither fans nor the front office can can prove that an outside option will be worse or better than Bogaerts, but we DO know that he has proven himself for a decade. And that's meant multiple Silver Sluggers for him and a pair of trophies for the organization.
- Many fans have said that paying Bogaerts will have a negative impact on Marcelo Mayer, a young prospect who is still 2+ years away. For one thing, the idea of throwing out a still-young, excellent player for the hope of a prospect who isn't even close is beyond stupid. And to your point about multiple shortstops being solutions, rather than problems, Bogaerts could DH. Mayer could DH. Story could DH and Mayer could play second. Devers could DH and someone else can play third. They could trade Story. It's highly plausible that if the Sox give Bogaerts the respect he's earned in the form of a better contract, he will be more willing to share shortstop duties, especially as he gets older.
- Bogaerts leadership and skill as a mentor are other 'Intangibles' that should be cherished, not ignored or discounted. If we're assuming that Mayer WILL continue to rise through the system and develop into a big-leaguer, having Bogaerts, a World Series champion shortstop, there to mentor him would be an invaluable opportunity.
- Excluding all player, club, and mutual options, the current 2023 luxury tax allocations are a little more than $47M. If Bogaerts wasn't to opt out this winter, the Sox would be paying him $20M next year. They could easily bump that up to $25M and have more than enough left over for everything else they need. They could also structure his deal with deferred money. There are so many ways to do it, they just need to do it.
The reason X has been better is Story is an exceptional defender who’s allowing X to cover less ground. With the changes with the shift next year, I’d expect X’s defensive stats to revert back again meaning a positional change is likely needed in the next 2 years or so. They’d need to make sure he’s on board with that change. Overall, X is solid, but not worth a massive contract IMO. Curious to see what happens
The big question is "At what cost"? He's still a Boras client who already gave a discount cause he wanted to stay and now wants to get paid.
Papi is of course going to advocate for the player to get paid cause he was the star player and has been through those negotiations but they're not on the same level of star in Boston.
When you start overpaying for intangibles or clubhouse leader (which is what Cora is) or past performance, you end up with contracts like Pujols and Cabrera. Can Sox afford it? Of course. But what about when you need to move the club icon off a position he doesn't want to move from and now there's conflict with an expensive aging and probably declining star.
You're either sacrificing Devers and letting him go or swapping positions with Story. You have some wiggle room with the DH spot and shuffling presumably Casas/Devers/New Free Agent or something like that. It could work for 2-3 years but the last half of that contract might not be pretty or smooth.
I'm gonna trust Chaim to build a long-term contender though it might get real uncomfortable haha.
Verdict: Sign him if it's team friendly and not too long otherwise let someone else overpay
Thanks, Matt.
You are spot on. If Xander does truly want to stay — I believe he does — then there’s a deal to be made.
The Sox have lots of holes to fill this winter, and they shouldn’t make it worse by letting their best player leave.
I’m not a big “intangibles” guy. Not saying they don’t matter, but they are almost always overrated.
But they matter in this case. Xander is a clubhouse leader on a multicultural team. He plays hard, he plays hurt and he’s demonstrated the ability to thrive and win in Boston.
We can live with his SS defense into Mayer arrives.
Pay the man.
💯
I completely agree that they should sign Xander, but if you do that you are committing to letting Devers go. There is no way they are going to tie up ~$600 million in Story, Bogaerts and Devers, especially with the shift banned and their top prospect a potential 5 tool SS (even if he is 2-3 years away from the bigs).
Screaming in agreement.
And a few more things I'd add:
- His collision with Verdugo this season messed up his swing and mechanics for a while. Then he worked through it and began homering again. There's no reason to think that if he's healthy next year, his power won't be more consistent. And it's impressive that even while struggling at the plate this summer, he still managed to get on base and collect hits. He already has more doubles than he did at the end of last year.
- David Ortiz has consistently reminded the world this summer that many players cannot handle the environment and spotlight in Boston. It's something that's been proven over and over in the last two decades. Bogaerts not only handles the scrutiny of the Boston microscope, but thrives here. That is not a variable to mess with or take lightly; rather, it should be a key reason to keep him around.
- Neither fans nor the front office can can prove that an outside option will be worse or better than Bogaerts, but we DO know that he has proven himself for a decade. And that's meant multiple Silver Sluggers for him and a pair of trophies for the organization.
- Many fans have said that paying Bogaerts will have a negative impact on Marcelo Mayer, a young prospect who is still 2+ years away. For one thing, the idea of throwing out a still-young, excellent player for the hope of a prospect who isn't even close is beyond stupid. And to your point about multiple shortstops being solutions, rather than problems, Bogaerts could DH. Mayer could DH. Story could DH and Mayer could play second. Devers could DH and someone else can play third. They could trade Story. It's highly plausible that if the Sox give Bogaerts the respect he's earned in the form of a better contract, he will be more willing to share shortstop duties, especially as he gets older.
- Bogaerts leadership and skill as a mentor are other 'Intangibles' that should be cherished, not ignored or discounted. If we're assuming that Mayer WILL continue to rise through the system and develop into a big-leaguer, having Bogaerts, a World Series champion shortstop, there to mentor him would be an invaluable opportunity.
- Excluding all player, club, and mutual options, the current 2023 luxury tax allocations are a little more than $47M. If Bogaerts wasn't to opt out this winter, the Sox would be paying him $20M next year. They could easily bump that up to $25M and have more than enough left over for everything else they need. They could also structure his deal with deferred money. There are so many ways to do it, they just need to do it.
The reason X has been better is Story is an exceptional defender who’s allowing X to cover less ground. With the changes with the shift next year, I’d expect X’s defensive stats to revert back again meaning a positional change is likely needed in the next 2 years or so. They’d need to make sure he’s on board with that change. Overall, X is solid, but not worth a massive contract IMO. Curious to see what happens
Bogaerts has played 41 games without Story this season and been a solid to excellent defender throughout.
He's is also the better hitter, has real postseason experience, and is only a month older than Story.
The big question is "At what cost"? He's still a Boras client who already gave a discount cause he wanted to stay and now wants to get paid.
Papi is of course going to advocate for the player to get paid cause he was the star player and has been through those negotiations but they're not on the same level of star in Boston.
When you start overpaying for intangibles or clubhouse leader (which is what Cora is) or past performance, you end up with contracts like Pujols and Cabrera. Can Sox afford it? Of course. But what about when you need to move the club icon off a position he doesn't want to move from and now there's conflict with an expensive aging and probably declining star.
You're either sacrificing Devers and letting him go or swapping positions with Story. You have some wiggle room with the DH spot and shuffling presumably Casas/Devers/New Free Agent or something like that. It could work for 2-3 years but the last half of that contract might not be pretty or smooth.
I'm gonna trust Chaim to build a long-term contender though it might get real uncomfortable haha.
Verdict: Sign him if it's team friendly and not too long otherwise let someone else overpay