Replacing E-Rod

Some options for filling the Eduardo Rodriguez-sized hole in the Red Sox drywall

If I were actually smart and good at this newsletter thing, I would’ve written this article last week. Instead, I’m sending it out now, after two of the most interesting pitchers on the market signed with other teams, meaning they’re no longer options for Boston. All of which is to say: Well done, Matthew! You’re doing great. Just fantastic. Really and truly.

This past weekend, almost a full week ago as you read these whatever-the-opposite-of-prophetic-is words, the Red Sox lost Eduardo Rodriguez to the Detroit Tigers. I wrote about that here at Sox Outsider, in case you missed it. Rodriguez’s move to Detroit created a hole in the Red Sox rotation, or as I put it in the article, “the Red Sox have a hole in their rotation!” So true!

So: Let’s talk about it! But first (and quickly), hello, I’m Matt Kory and this is the Sox Outsider newsletter. You may know me from right here (Sox Outsider) (Hi!) or my work at other places such as The Athletic, FanGraphs, or whatever other media outlet would impress you. All those places have fired me though so now I’m covering the Red Sox here. And it’s actually pretty awesome. So please, follow along and subscribe! I promise it will be worth both the zero money it costs and, far more importantly, your time. Thanks.

Another thing I said in the aforementioned piece is if you were going to lose an important piece of your rotation, the beginning of the offseason is when you’d want to have it happen, the time when every other option is still open. When I wrote that it was truer! It’s still mostly true though.

The news in all of this is that the Red Sox did try to re-sign Rodriguez. They weren’t comfortable with a five year deal nor with the opt-out the Tigers gave him in two years. But before that final offer from Detroit, the Red Sox were in the bidding. For whatever that’s worth to ya.

The truth is, like most baseball players, Rodriguez is replaceable from a pure value perspective. The Red Sox have spent the past week making runs at other pitchers who they felt could do that in in 2022 in Noah Syndergaard and Justin Verlander. Both ultimately signed with other organizations, the Angels and Astros, respectively. Perhaps “Red Sox” wasn’t high enough in the alphabet.

Regardless of the outcome, those pitchers fit the 2022 Red Sox perfectly. Both were potentially highly productive and because of past and current issues such as age and health, both wouldn’t require a long term commitment. I suspect that’s why the Red Sox were in on both. Snydergaard in particular was a tantalizing option, but he signed a one-year deal for $21 million. That’s a lot, but I suspect it wasn’t the money the Red Sox balked at. This is just a guess, but, as signing him would cost the team a draft pick (in the Red Sox’ case, their second rounder), I think the Red Sox would’ve wanted to have a team option for a second season added to the deal. That was clearly something Syndergaard’s camp didn’t want to do.

I’m guessing the Red Sox wanted the same structure with Verlander, but the Astros offered not only the lack of a team option, but a player option for 2023 at $25 million. That’s a lot to commit for any pitcher’s age-40 season, let alone one coming off of Tommy John surgery.

The Red Sox do have some money to play with when it comes to filling this hole in the rotation. At the moment and including all arbitration eligible players, the Red Sox payroll is about $184 million according to Roster Resource. Assuming the luxury tax threshold remains the same (a dubious assumption), that leaves them with about $36 million to play with. Before signing every free agent though, remember the impact each long term deal has in subsequent seasons. Long term deals aren’t verboten but there needs to be a strong reason to go there, at least for this organization right now.

So, 650 words later, where does that leave the Sox?

Not in a bad spot! If they’re not able to sign or trade for any starters, their 2022 rotation would have Chris Sale, Nate Eovaldi, Nick Pivetta, and then probably two of Tanner Houck, Garrett Whitlock, Conner Seabold, Brayan Bello, Josh Winckowski, and Kutter Crawford. Yes, sure, the last four of those guys probably aren’t ready for a major league rotation, but they can play a role in plugging the hole in the dam, at least, if not a little bit more. And that’s all before the Red Sox acquire anyone, which they will do. So it’s not a bad spot to start from.

Now the part you’ve been waiting for if you’re even still reading this: who will they get?

Now lean in and listen closely: I don’t know.

Seriously, I don’t.

But I do have some names! Four, in fact, who I think would make particular sense given Boston’s exact roster and payroll state.

Let’s start at the absolute top: Max Scherzer. Everyone assumes Scherzer is going to re-sign with the Dodgers. That would make sense. They have money and prestige, he presumably feels some level of comfort after playing there for a half season, and living in LA is probably not bad. Probably. But short of all that, the Red Sox make a ton of sense. Based on their interest in Verlander and Syndergaard, Boston is willing to commit a lot of money on a short term deal, presumably exactly what Scherzer is looking for. And while LA offers the potential to win a World Series, so do the Red Sox who *ahem* got exactly as far in the playoffs this past season as the Dodgers did.

The money will be huge. That should be acknowledged. This would be the “big” move of the off-season, at least free agent-wise. We might be talking about $60 million on a two-year deal with an option for a third year at that same AAV, but why wouldn’t the Red Sox do that? If Syndergaard is worth $21 million a year, surely Scherzer is worth $9 million more. And since Scherzer wasn’t eligible for a qualifying offer, signing him won’t cost the Red Sox a draft pick (if that even enters into the equation here). So with all that as the background, I expect the Red Sox to be in on Scherzer if he gives them the chance.

But all that said, he’s probably going back to LA. So let’s talk maybe a hair more realistically. A guy who isn’t going back to LA because he was never there in the first place is Kevin Gausman. Gausman put up a fantastic season for the Giants in 2022, so good that he got Cy Young votes. In 32 starts over 192 innings, Gausman struck out 227 to 50 walks and 20 homers allowed for a 3.02 ERA, although he did pitch in a Giant(s) ballpark (sorry).

Like every other damn pitcher I’m mentioning here, Gausman didn’t get a qualifying offer so he won’t cost the Sox a draft pick. He will cost them money and probably a few more years than signing Scherzer would. I’m guessing Gausman will be more expensive than Eduardo Rodriguez on a contract covering a similar number seasons. So why would the Red Sox commit to that length of contract for Gausman when they wouldn’t for Rodriguez? Maybe they like Gausman better! He had a better season, but he’s been far more inconsistent over his career than E-Rod, which is quite something.

That said, Gausman and Rodriguez are pretty similar, generally. They have similar career numbers: similar ERAs, similar FIPs, and similar ERA+s. Gausman is a few years older and has thrown about 300 more big league innings. Not insignificant but not a bad thing, necessarily. The one big difference is the hand they throw with, as Gausman is right handed.

Two more guys. The first is Corey Kluber. Kluber almost signed with the Red Sox last off-season, but wound up signing with the Yankees. He was bad at first, quite bad in fact, but then he started to pitch much better. And then he got hurt, but he did come back and pitched fine when he did. His ERA pitching in the AL East last year was 3.83, which is pretty good. He’s not the Cy Young-winner he once was anymore, but he can step into the back of a rotation and give you some good innings. He wouldn’t be my first choice to replace Eduardo, but he could be a good option on a one-year deal if the Red Sox are going for more of a ‘quantity over quality’ approach.

The final guy is Steven Matz. Matz pitched last season with the Blue Jays. He pitched three games against the Sox and got shelled in two of them, so I didn’t think much of him, but his stats last year are surprisingly strong. Not great, not fantastic, but not bad! Matz threw 150.2 innings with a 3.82 ERA, which, again, ain’t bad. Over his career, Matz has been fine, with the exception of 2020, but then 2020 was bad for everyone. The problem with Matz is he’s a sinker guy who kinda needs a decent infield behind him and that’s not exactly the Red Sox strength. But for the right price, perhaps it could work.

So that’s the list. Scherzer, Gausman, Kluber, and Matz. I actually like Jon Gray from the Rockies a lot too, but this has gone on for too long as it is. So pretend I just wrote 250 words about Gray. There. Don’t you feel informed! I knew you would.

The Red Sox have some decisions to make. Fortunately for them, there are a lot of options still on the table. And, if the CBA discussions go as well as they have been going, there may be an awful long time to really split the hell out of some hairs about it, too. So the Red Sox are in a good spot. That’s it. That’s where they are.

Thanks for reading. I hope you enjoyed this edition of Sox Outsider. If you haven’t already, please subscribe! If you already have, thanks! Please forward this email to a friend who you think might enjoy it. Thanks for reading!