Eduardo Rodriguez Signs With Tigers
The Red Sox have a hole in their rotation!
The second big domino of the Red Sox off-season after J.D. Martinez was Eduardo Rodriguez. I say “was” because it was reported today that Rodriguez has agreed to a five -year, $77 million contract with the Detroit Tigers. It’s a deal the Red Sox sure could’ve matched! But didn’t! Which is curious. Rodriguez’s departure leaves the Red Sox with a hole in the starting rotation and leaves us with a hole in our hearts.
So let’s talk about all that stuff!
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So. That was quick.
With the Collective Bargaining Agreement (CBA) set to be un-agreed upon in a few weeks, it seemed we would be in for a cold start to free agency. But nope! The Tigers pounced (see what I did there?) on now former Red Sox starter Eduardo Rodriguez, giving him not only five years at $15.4 million per season, but some salary escalators, an opt-out after the 2023 season, and some kind of no-trade protection (MLB Trade Rumors was light on the specifics) as well. In all, it’s a strong deal for Rodriguez and I’m not surprised he signed it.
Now with Rodriguez in the fold, the Tigers have a pretty nice little team they’re developing. I won’t pretend to be an expert on Detroit’s farm system, but I know MLB Pipeline ranks it seventh because I can read. They have top overall prospect Spencer Torkleson (who always reminds me of this great sketch from The Kids In The Hall) set to come up, and there are a bunch of high-end arms in Matt Manning, Casey Mize, and Tarik Skubal already on the major league roster. It’s possible they have other players as well. In all, it’s a good opportunity for Rodriguez to take on the ace mantle for an up-and-coming team in a winnable division. And $77 million doesn’t hurt, either.
The Red Sox now have an Eduardo Rodriguez-sized hole in their starting rotation. So why didn’t Chaim Bloom match or beat that deal? Surely the Red Sox could afford to give Rodriguez $15 million a season when they just offered him the qualifying offer of $18.4 million for next season. That’s all true, but what stands out to me here is that, in addition to the dollars, this deal would have cost Boston - and you’re not going to be happy to hear this word, so I apologize in advance - flexibility.
The no-trade, the opt-out, and the five years were all aspects of a contract that I know Bloom would rather not offer for a pitcher, even a 29-year-old one who had been in the Red Sox organization since 2014. Each of those were limiting to what the Red Sox could do both this off-season and in future off-seasons. I’d argue limiting your flexibility isn’t a bad thing if the player is good enough. The Nationals weren’t upset that Max Scherzer’s contract limited their flexibility, for example. If anything they wished they’d limited their own flexibility for longer. But Eduardo Rodriguez isn’t Max Scherzer, and five years is a long time for any pitcher.
Additionally, Bloom is clearly trying to build from within, and paying free agent dollars for five years to a starter entering his thirties isn’t in keeping with that plan. Whether it works or not remains to be seen, but the Red Sox at least have some promising starters in the high minors with Brayan Bello, Connor Seabold, Jay Groome, Bryan Mata, Chris Murphy, and Josh Winkowski. They also have Tanner Houck and Garrett Whitlock on the major league roster, both of whom could be moved to the rotation to start the 2022 season, or be kept in the bullpen. So there are some internal options, at least.
There are a lot of external options as well. A quick look at the rotation as it stands now:
1. Chris Sale
2. Nate Eovaldi
3. Nick Pivetta
4. Tanner Houck?
5. Good Question
Adding two starters would allow Houck and Whitlock to reprise their 2021 roles as swingmen/bullpen aces. The free agent market in full of former and future Cy Young winners, including likely 2021 Cy Young-winner Robbie Ray, and multiple-Cy Young winners Justin Verlander, Clayton Kershaw, and Max Scherzer. While Ray’s future contract is likely to be longer and heftier than Rodriguez’s, it’s likely the other three will command more in the two-to-three years range, which might fit Bloom’s preferences more, even if the AAV is higher.
There are also pitchers more along the lines of Rodriguez, in Marcus Stroman, Kevin Gausman, Carlos Rodon, Steven Matz, and Noah Syndergaard. All can claim to be some version of a number three starter, though now all (with possible exception of Syndergaard) will at least ask for the E-Rod deal. Still, it’s a deep list, and one the Red Sox will be looking at with regards to their newly-opened rotation spot.
But that’s not all! There’s also the trade market. It’s hard to know who exactly will be available, but there have been rumors that both the A’s and Reds are in Sell Mode. That could potentially mean starters Sean Manaea, Frankie Montas, and Chris Bassett of the A’s and Sonny Gray and Luis Castillo of the Reds could be dealt. One advantage to losing Rodriguez now is that literally every single other option is still available.
Because they offered him the Qualifying Offer, Boston will receive a draft pick as compensation for losing Rodriguez. The exact location of that pick within the draft isn’t yet known, but it’s likely to be around pick number 70. That, plus the pick the team receives for not signing second round pick Jud Fabian, means the Sox are set up to make some noise next draft.
It’s always sad when a long-time Red Sox player departs. Rodriguez was a very good pitcher for Boston during his six seasons with the Sox. After coming over from the Orioles in the Andrew Miller trade at the 2014 trade deadline, Rodriguez ended up throwing 856 innings plus 22 more in the post-season for the Red Sox. He started the Red Sox win in Game Four of the 2018 World Series and pitched in two other World Series games. He dominated the Rays in Game Four of the Division Series and shut down the Astros in Boston’s Game Three ALCS win as well. He’s been a vital part of the team since 2015.
We can never know what’s in a person’s heart or soul, but Eduardo sure seems like a good guy who enjoyed pitching in Boston. Personally, I wish him all the best in his new home, and I hope he gets a standing ovation whenever he returns to Fenway Park. He deserves it.
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Apologies for not writing over this past week. I’m working on a few different ideas for the post-season, but nothing was really jumping out to me, so I thought it best to not burden you with half-thoughts and hastily-written poop jokes. Rest assured there will be more from me here when things start happening, and, even before that, once my brain works through some off-season-related strategy enough that I can put it down on virtual paper. Beyond that, if there’s anything you’d like to see covered here, toss it in the comments. I’m always open to ideas!
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CBA uncertainty ...... Hell will Freeze Over & Covid will be long gone before that is ever sorted !