Xander Bogaerts And The Perils Of Leadership
We’ve entered the I-don’t-want-to-write-about-it-and-you-don’t-want-to-read-about-it portion of tonight’s show. Welcome. Before we get into everything though, if you have not already, please subscribe! It’s free, and it’s about the Red Sox, and it’s by me, so two out of three is pretty good. Thanks for reading, everyone.
Last Sunday, on the verge of a sweep, Xander Bogaerts, the Red Sox de facto captain, put his foot down. After having lost the first two of a three game series to the Rays, Bogaerts told the media, “I know there’s two months left but we need a win tomorrow.”
Instead, the Red Sox lost, 3-2, punctuated by J.D. Martinez making the final out of the game with the tying run on third base while our protagonist, Bogaerts, stood helplessly in the on deck circle waiting for a chance that would never come.
It wasn’t like Bogaerts didn’t have his chances to alter the Red Sox fortunes though. Since making that statement, the Red Sox are 0-2, having lost to Detroit last night as well. Bogaerts is 1-for-6 with a ground ball single and two walks in those two games. I don’t mean to come down on Bogaerts here, a central player in Boston’s to-this-point successful season, and I applaud his standing up in that moment following the second loss in Tampa, but if you’re going to do that, you have to produce. One-for-six since “we have to win" isn’t good enough. Not that Bogaerts needs that pointed out to him. And of course he’s doing the best he can, I know.
They all are. It’s not a question of effort or even of tactics (though using Bobby Dalbec as a pinch hitter in last night’s game was bizarre). It is execution and taking advantage of the opportunities presented.
And now we’ve arrived at the central portion of our show. Last night, down 3-2 in the top of the seventh inning, Jarren Duran led off with a single. The next three hitters up for Boston were Rafael Devers, Bogaerts, and JD Martinez. You couldn’t set things up better for the Red Sox to tie it up or even take the lead. The fastest runner on the team is on first and Boston’s three best hitters are coming up. Yes please!
As it turned out though, all three struck out. All three! But it wasn’t just bad Red Sox hitting. Tigers pitcher Michael Fulmer made a series of amazing pitches. So let’s start there. Here is Devers’ at-bat:
That’s just a beautiful pitch chart right there! Everything on the corners or at the bottom of the zone. [chef’s kiss] The first pitch is a 92 mph slider on the very edge of the zone, or a hair outside, but either way it was called a strike. The second pitch was an 83 mph change at the very bottom of the zone that Devers swung over. Perfect pitch. Then Fulmer tried to get Devers to swing at two pitches below the zone, another change and another slider, but Devers held up to even the count. Fulmer then dots the outside corner with a 97 mph fastball. Sure you’d love Devers to smack it the other way for a run-scoring double, but that’s just masterful pitching.
Then came Bogaerts. Here’s the chart for his at-bat.
This one ends with Bogaerts swinging at a 95 mph fastball outside for the strikeout. Not great! But take a look at pitch three and pitch five. Those aren’t exactly like the others in this at-bat or like anything Devers saw in his plate appearance prior. Remember them. We’re going to come back to those.
After Bogaerts K’d, JD Martinez did the same. Here’s his pitch chart.
This was another great job of pitching by Fulmer. Every pitch is exactly where it was supposed to be. Nothing over the plate, not even a little bit. Hit the corner with the sinker, hit the corner with the slider, then a slider well outside for the swinging strike to end the at-bat. Good pitching. Sure, you’d like JD to take that fourth pitch for ball two, and clearly he should have, but those first two strikes are so good, especially that third pitch, the slider on the absolute corner, that Martinez was in protect mode and/or got fooled. So I’m willing to concede the Devers and Martinez at-bats to good pitching. That happens sometimes. The other guy is getting paid, too.
Back to the Bogaerts at-bat.
Recall, the third and fifth pitches of Bogaerts’ at-bat. And now that you’ve seen the rest of the inning, you know that in all three at-bats, Fulmer only put two pitches anywhere near the middle of the strike zone. Those two pitches were the third and fifth pitches to Xander.
Those were the opportunities. Xander got two of them. He missed them both.
Here’s the first of the two, pitch number three in the at-bat. Recall X is up in the count 2-0, so presumably he’s looking for a pitch out over the plate. Here’s that pitch.
It is out over the plate! But Xander is a bit ahead of it and grounds it foul up the third base line. Missed opportunity #1.
Here comes missed opportunity #2. First though comes pitch number four of the at-bat, a slider well out of the zone that Bogaerts offers at and fouls back. Instead of it being 3-1, it’s 2-2. You could call this the central pitch if you want. It’s not remotely a strike and Xander turns it into one, but to me the central pitches are the hittable ones he missed.
[Digression: this is a consistent problem with this Red Sox lineup. Their inability to get ahead in counts leads them to all manner of unfortunate offensive outcomes. This is a good example. Bogaerts has a chance (as JD will in the next at-bat) to get up in the count by laying off a pitch well outside, but instead he swings and turns a ball into a strike and a good hitting count into a good pitching count. /end Digression.]
So now it’s 2-2. The catcher calls for a sinker low and in. Here’s where he sets up. Note where the glove is. That’s where he wants Fulmer’s pitch to go.
Fulmer delivers, a 96 mph sinker, but for the first time this inning he misses his location in the zone. This is a recipe for disaster for the Tigers. This pitch is a tie game with another runner in scoring position waiting to happe. Look at this.
This is up and out over the plate in a way Fulmer most certainly did not want. The screenshot makes it look a bit more middle-middle than it was, instead it was a bit in, which is exactly where Bogaerts loves pitches. Here is a chart of the pitches Bogaerts has homered on this season.
Bogaerts likes pitches either inside and low or over the plate at his waist. This was that second variety, and it was a juicy one. It was as hittable a pitch as the Red Sox would see that inning. And Xander crushed it! But just foul.
The upper red circle is the ball, the lower red circle is where the ball landed. It’s a shame that StatCast doesn’t give us exit velocities on foul balls, but I’d estimate that was a 100+ mph line drive into the corner, probably eight feet foul or less. If Bogaerts is the width of a cat fur later on the pitch it’s a game-tying double into the left field corner. But he was ahead of it, and it landed harmlessly foul. Fulmer’s mistake didn’t hurt him. He struck Xander out on the next pitch. Then JD struck out, the Red Sox squandered that opportunity and lost the game.
I am not saying Xander shouldn’t have said what he said. He’s the team captain, or as much as the Red Sox have one, he’s it, and sometimes the team captain needs to kick the team in the butt. That’s all fine and good. But when you say something like that you put a target on your own back as well. Xander was in a spot where he could have made a massive difference, if not in the winnable game against Tampa, but in the winnable game against Detroit the next night, and he didn’t. It’s tough, but heavy is the head that wears the crown. He has to be better.
The Red Sox aren’t playing well right now so it’s easy to be defeatist and alarmist about things. I’m guilty of that as much as anyone, I’m sure. The truth of it though is that there is still lots of time left. So far I’ve focused on the “we need a win” portion of Bogaerts comment, but perhaps I missed the most important part. Before the “win” part, Bogaerts said, “I know there’s two months left…”
So yes, Bogaerts missed some hittable pitches (in the major league sense of the term). He probably wishes he had those to do over again. I do too! But that’s how it goes. That’s also the beauty of baseball, that there’s always another game. The Red Sox have a lot of ‘another games’ remaining in this season and many chances to right the wrongs they’ve perpetrated upon themselves over the past week. There are opportunities awaiting. Now it’s just about taking advantage of them. Game two against Detroit starts tonight at 7pm.