Whither Jackie Bradley Jr?

On with JBJ's free agency and his potential return to Boston

We take a break from our regularly scheduled whining about the Mookie Betts trade to look at another former Red Sox outfielder, Jackie Bradley Jr. I called him “former” and he is, but he’s also potentially still future Red Sox center fielder Jackie Bradley Jr on account of he’s still a free agent. That it’s late February and Bradley doesn’t have a home yet is surprising, but maybe not as surprising as the fact that, even now, a deal for Bradley doesn’t appear imminent. There are no reports of teams actively negotiating with Bradley’s agent and Spring Training has already begun. It’s almost like Bradley is enjoying free agency too much. Perhaps he’ll avoid signing altogether and start his own team, “Bradley.” Hey, it’s better than Cleveland’s name. The Red Sox schedule could feature a two game series against Anaheim, a three game series in Baltimore, and then Bradley comes to town for a four game weekend set. Just thinking out loud here.

MLB Trade Rumors ran a poll about Bradley a few days back. They asked their readers where he would sign and 30 percent guessed he’d return to the Red Sox. The other options were the Astros (24 percent), Mets (23.5 percent), and Giants (14 percent), with “other” finishing at 7 percent. That’s kinda funny because I, and I imagine you as well, dear reader, are operating under the assumption that Bradley is almost definitely not going to re-sign in Boston. And yet it appears that a plurality of fans, people who pay a good bit of attention to baseball given that they’re on a baseball super-nerd site like MLB Trade Rumors dot com, seem to think the Red Sox are Bradley’s best option.

“Best” doesn’t mean “good”, but even that is better than his chances of joining the Mets. They signed two center fielders, both of whom are not Jackie Bradley, in Kevin Pillar and Albert Almora to major league contracts. That is in addition to their regular outfield which is already full of Brandon Nimmo, Michael Conforto, and Dominic Smith. Where would they put Jackie Bradley? Before you answer, keep in mind both dressing up as Mr. Met and giving Fred Wilpon financial advice are positions with the potential for significant jail time.

The other teams named in the poll, the Astros and Giants, have room on their rosters for another center fielder, or one might say, “have room on their rosters for a centerfielder,” with Miles Straw and Maricio Dubon, respectively, supposedly the starters at the position. And if you were worried the luxury tax would scare them off, both teams have space under the it’s-not-a-cap. (The Astros are about $13 million under the threshold and the Giants are $53 million under.) So both are seemingly good fits for a free agent center fielder and hey how about that, JBJ is the only one left. So, why not Astros and Giants?

It’s a bit difficult to pin down, but for various reasons neither team seems interested, and this seems to be a common reaction around baseball. You have to go back a month through MLB Trade Rumors’ archives to find Bradley connected to any team that isn’t A) the Red Sox, or B) a team saying they aren’t interested in signing him. It’s generally good for a free agent to have his name mentioned by teams, except when it’s to point out that we’re definitely not signing that dude.

The last report of the Giants interest in Bradley came on January 24th, almost a month ago. Keep going backwards in time to find something, anything, and you get nothing, nothing, nothing, nothing at all, nothing whatsoever, and then ah ha! Pay dirt! On December 15th there is an article saying the Cubs and Phillies are interested in Bradley. That was over two months ago and since then the Cubs have traded Yu Darvish and generally set about trying to turn back the clock on their fans anguish to pre-World Series Championship levels. As for the Phillies, that report came out four days after they hired Dave Dombrowski, so maybe there’s something to it. But considering there’s been not a peep since, maybe not.

As all fans of dance know it takes two to tango. A team can want to sign a player but if they deem the player’s contractual demands too extreme, they’ll move on. Clearly that’s what’s been going on with Bradley and the Red Sox, Bradley and the Phillies, Bradley and the Astros, and Bradley and every other team he’s ever been connected to. If Bradley was willing to sign a one year deal he’d very likely have a whole bunch of suitors. Or at least one, which is really enough if you think about it. If he was willing to sign a two year deal, it’s entirely possible he would’ve also signed already signed. Clearly he’s not willing to do either yet.

The Red Sox have a bit of a full outfield without Bradley anyway, so like the Giants, Mets, Cubs, and Astros, and seemingly every team east of South Korea, while they’d be better off with Bradley, they’re probably okay without him as well.

It’s surprising to me as a Red Sox fan that Bradley hasn’t signed yet, but if you look at his 2021 projections you can start to see why teams haven’t wanted to give him the multi-year contract he’s obviously seeking. Here are Bradley’s projected slash lines from Baseball Prospectus, FanGraphs (I used their BatX projection), and Baseball Reference.

For a guy coming off a .283/.364/.450 slash line those might seem pretty low, but it is worth pointing out that, even with last year’s pretty numbers, Bradley’s career slash line is .239/.321/.412. The discerning reader will note the similarity between that line and those listed above. After eight seasons in the big leagues we kinda know who Bradley is now. Certainly the projection systems seem to think they do anyway. Of course he also brings top-of-the-line defense to a premium defensive position, so it’s not like even with those numbers he would be without value, but I think those numbers are a big reason why nobody has given a three-year contract to the great fielding center fielder coming off a season with an .814 OPS.

So what happens next? Probably at some point soon Bradley decides where he’d like to go on a one year deal, tells his agent, and then his agent calls up that team and tries to get a two year deal, or failing that, a one year deal, maybe with a team option with a buyout. It seems clear right now that Bradley’s dream of a four or five year deal, something that was reported a month or so ago, isn’t happening this off-season.

So where does this leave the Red Sox? GM Chaim Bloom said yesterday that they are still in contact with Bradley’s agent. Presumably they’ve told Scott Boras what kind of deal they’d be willing to entertain. It wouldn’t make sense to be in contact with Bradley’s agent if the team simply wasn’t interested. If Bradley’s asking price drops enough, they’ll probably be talking specifics. If he can get a longer deal elsewhere that’s where he’ll go.

There are teams out there that would benefit from having JBJ in center field in 2021, and the Red Sox are among them. It’s just a question of whether or not signing him would mean employing him in 2024 as well. For now at least, when that happens is probably up to Bradley, but at least for now I tend to believe the super nerds at MLB Trade Rumors. Boston is Bradley’s best bet.