Where The Red Sox Stand And What They Can Do
After a whirlwind weekend, there's still work to do if they want to do the work
If you were lulled to sleep by the Red Sox off-season, you should wake up because the Red Sox did things this weekend! In fact, they compressed an entire off-season into two days. Friday they signed a starting second baseman and Saturday they signed a starting pitcher, filling the two huge holes in the roster. So where does that leave us? What is left to do? Let’s take a look!
It should be mentioned that, according to Cots Contracts, the Red Sox have a bit under $14.5 million before they hit the luxury tax threshold. They were under last season so it wouldn’t be insane to go over this year, but it’s pretty safe to say they’d like to stay under.
Starting Rotation
Signing Garrett Richards to a one year deal with a team option for a second year fills up the rotation. If the season began today, the rotation would look like this:
Nathan Eovaldi
Eduardo Rodriguez
Garrett Richards
Martin Perez
Nick Pivetta
The top four guys have major league contracts and Pivetta just arrived from the Phillies last trade deadline and impressed in two starts at the end of the season and the Red Sox like him. All of which is to say they’re all on the major league roster. Right now, there isn’t much room for anyone else. It’s possible they could give a non-roster invite to someone like Rich Hill, or sign a lesser starter on a minor league contract, but barring injury, that wouldn’t change the composition of the rotation.
(I covered the rotation depth in my Garrett Richards signing piece from Saturday so check that out if you’re curious about Richards or about the guys after the top five.)
Bullpen
There seems to be a thought out there in the Twitterverse that the Red Sox may sign a reliever. They might! It could make sense from a financial standpoint, as in relievers are cheaper than non-relievers. Right now the bullpen looks like this:
Matt Barnes - Barnes is probably the closer in this group. He’s also the highest paid, and in his last year of team control.
Ryan Brasier - He’s making $1.25 million this year and though he does have a minor league option left, I don’t expect him to spend time in the minors unless he’s recovering from injury. This is probably your non-closer high-leverage guy, at least to start the year.
Matt Andriese - The Sox signed Andriese as a free agent to a major league deal, so he’s in the pen unless he’s in the rotation, but he’s not going to be in the rotation to start out with so that means he’s in the pen.
Phillips Valdez - If you were looking for a place the team could upgrade, this might be it. Valdez has two minor league options left and he’s on the major league minimum salary. He’s an intriguing arm, but one that could be stashed in Worchester (Triple-A) if the team decided to bring in a free agent.
Darwinzon Hernandez - Probably the most promising relief arm here, so I think the Red Sox are counting on him to be part of the pen, even though he does have two minor league options remaining.
Austin Brice - It wouldn’t have shocked me if Brice was DFA’d before going through his first round of arbitration this off-season, but instead the Red Sox gave him a major league contract. He has intriguing stuff and no minor league options remaining, so presumably he’s going to be a member of the 2021 Red Sox pen.
Josh Taylor - One of only two lefties, Taylor was pretty bad in just 7.1 innings last year, but pretty good in 47.1 innings the year before. He has two minor league options remaining, but I don’t expect Boston to use one off the bat.
Garrett Whitlock - Whitlock is the Rule 5 guy from the Yankees system. He gives the team a bit of a swingman type in that he can start if need be, but on this team, at least right now, he’s a reliever. More importantly, as a Rule 5 pick he has to stay on the major league roster all season long, so no room to upgrade here.
The main candidate to be replaced is probably Valdez, though Taylor and Hernandez both have minor league options remaining. And looking at that bullpen, it’s pretty short on star power. There aren’t many intriguing names left on the free agent market who would be a big upgrade, though, but maybe someone like Sean Doolittle formerly of the Nationals, or Alex Colomé most recently of the White Sox would make sense.
Infield
Rafael Devers is at third, Xander Bogaerts is at shortstop, and Bobby Dalbec is at first base. They just signed Enrique Hernández who plays a lot of second base, but also plays just about everywhere else on the diamond. I assumed Hernández might split time at second base while filling in elsewhere in my writeup on the signing, but there seems to be a thought out there that the Red Sox promised him the regular second base job. If so, well, the good news is they don’t need a second baseman. Whether that’s true or not, I don’t know. Signing someone like Marcus Semien or Kolten Wong would make the 2021 Red Sox a much better team, even with Hernández on the roster because it gives the team extra levels of redundancy, in addition to a good bat at an up-the-middle position, something Hernández can’t provide if he’s playing second base every day. But if Hernández is the second baseman, then Hernández is the second baseman.
There will be more on this if information comes to light, but for now let’s assume Enrique Hernández is the starting second baseman, which fills out the infield and means we’re done here.
Outfield
It was a long time ago, but the Red Sox did sign an outfielder this off-season. Way back in mid-December when visions of sugar plums and Corey Kluber were dancing in our heads, the Red Sox gave a one year deal to Hunter Renfroe. Renfroe is pretty much a right fielder though he has played some left field. He hits right-handed. He had a bad 2020. So did we all. Beyond that, the Red Sox have Andrew Benintendi penciled in (lightly) in right field, and Alex Verdugo who can play right field or center (or presumably left too, but who cares about that).
That’s three guys at three separate positions. The only thing is, doing it that way means Verdugo moves to center after playing most of 2020 in right field. It also means Renfroe plays every day in right field. Neither of those outcomes seems ideal. If the team signed Jackie Bradley, Jr., they could move Verdugo back to right field, platoon Renfroe, or keep Renfroe as a regular and trade Benintendi (as they seem to be contemplating doing). Or they could do none of that and keep things as they are.
Catcher
It’s Christian Vazquez and Kevin Plawecki. [wipes hands]
What That All Probably Means
The rotation and infield are pretty set. They could bring in a second baseman and move Hernández to a super utility role, and that would probably make the team better (depending on who they signed for second base). Kolten Wong is a left-handed hitter, so maybe there’s some platoon potential there?
If the Red Sox wanted to create one, there could be a a hole or two in the bullpen to make an addition. And then of course there is the outfield situation. The metrics seem to think Verdugo can play center field. That’s entirely possible and it makes his bat that much more valuable if he can, but I’m skeptical that’s the plan. Minor league center fielder Jarren Duran has been getting a lot of buzz but he has a long way to go as a center fielder before he can take over in Boston, so Jackie Bradley Jr. continues to make a lot of sense. If the Red Sox can get him on a one year deal, even at a higher number, they might jump at that. If there are teams willing to give him three years then I’d expect Boston to bow out. Two years I’d do, but I’m not sure the Red Sox would. We’ll have to see.
So that’s what we’re looking at with one month to go or thereabouts before spring training starts. Maybe a reliever, maybe JBJ comes back, maybe maybe maybe there’s a second baseman in our future.
But! What If We Got Crazy
The Red Sox haven’t shown much inclination to go nuts since Chaim Bloom took over, but suppose he was feeling frisky. What could he do?
Any shakeup probably starts with trading Andrew Benintendi. That opens up $6.6 million in money under the luxury tax and left field. Marcel Ozuna is still out there on the free agent market, so bringing him in to play left could be an upgrade on Benintendi’s bat, depending on what you think of Benintendi. I’m actually pretty bullish on Benintendi in 2021 (I wrote a piece called Why I’m Bullish On Benintendi), but considering his last two seasons (assuming you count 14 games in 2020 as a season), it’s not crazy to think Ozuna would make the team better. Of course Ozuna would require big money on a multi-year deal, which Benintendi doesn’t. MLB Trade Rumors guessed at the beginning of the off-season he’d get four years, $72 million, so that’s probably still the ballpark Boston would have to offer before he’d sign.
Beyond Ozuna, Kris Bryant is rumored to be available and while he would cost something in trade the Cubs seem pretty desperate to cut payroll, so he might not be too expensive. Also, he’s signed for just one year so he wouldn’t require the longer term commitment that Ozuna would. Perhaps you could do something like trade Benintendi for prospects and then turn around and deal one of those prospects to Chicago for Bryant. Spitballing here, but if you like Bryant (he was pretty awful in 2020) and you feel okay with him in left field which he has never done regularly but has done occasionally, maybe you do something like that.
In The End…
The Red Sox have done the heavy lifting. With Richards and Martin Perez, they have their rotation set for the year. With Hernandez and Renfroe the lineup is set if they want it to be. There’s room to make changes to the back of the bullpen, and, if they want, the outfield. I still think adding JBJ would be ideal, but there have been some rumors about Benintendi, so if that goes down, it may be time to get silly.