What's Left For The Red Sox?
After the frenzy that was yesterday, are there any options remaining for the Red Sox?
Yesterday I woke up and made myself some coffee. I did some other assorted things, got the kids out to school, then fired up the old computer machine and holy crap! Seiya Suzuki? Signed! Kyle Schwarber? Signed! Matt Chapman? Traded! Later in the day the Dodgers signed Freddie Freeman (so, yeah, never mind) and the Rockies signed Kris Bryant. That’s quite a clearing of the deck. All of a sudden the Red Sox’ options, which seemed rather plentiful when I went to bed the night before, were decidedly meager.
It all begs the question, what is left for the Red Sox to do? As it turns out, there are a lot of options left!
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So what can the Red Sox still do? Lots of things!
Free Agents
There are still a number of free agents left on the market as I write this. The best free agent available, Carlos Correa, remains available. It’s not clear what his market constitutes either, so should the Red Sox want to go down that road, it’s not one with a lot of traffic at the moment. Correa is an intriguing player, a star when healthy at a premium position, but one that will top the market in terms of both dollars and years, and will displace a current Red Sox cornerstone as well. The fit isn’t great from that perspective. But if the Red Sox don’t think they’re going to be able (or want) to re-sign Xander Bogaerts next off-season and they’re not going to try to extend him before that, the option is there.
Beyond Correa, Trevor Story remains on the market. He’s coming off a down and injury-marred season in Colorado. He’s not nearly the player Correa is as he’s older, with health issues, and there’s the ever-present questions any time a hitter leaves Colorado, but Story is undoubtedly a good hitter and he’s undoubtedly available. Undoubtedly. He’s stated he doesn’t want to play second base, so unless his market never materializes and he has to revisit that statement, signing him would (again) displace Xander Bogaerts. Probably not a great fit from that standpoint, but signing him would cost less in money and years than signing Correa, and it could solve the Red Sox long term shortstop question.
After trading Hunter Renfroe for Jackie Bradley Jr. just before lockout the Red Sox were poised to upgrade in the outfield corner. Now, with Suzuki and Schwarber off the market, there’s only one player left on the free agent market capable of filling the spot, and that’s Nick Castellanos. Castellanos is about as good as Kyle Schwarber, generally. He’s a bad fielder (check) in an outfield corner (check) with abundant power (check). What he has over Schwarber is a longer track record of success. Castellanos has been a well above average hitter since his breakout season with the Tigers back in 2016. What he doesn’t have over Schwarber is on-base percentage. Schwarber will take a walk or seven. Castellanos won’t. He’s more of a free swinger, though he strikes out less than Schwarber, if that matters to you. But if you’re looking for a power hitting corner outfielder on the free agent market, a middle-of-the-order kinda of bat, Castellanos is still out there and available.
Trade Targets
I can’t possibly go through every potentially available trade candidate. There are too many and also I can’t know everyone who is available. But I can definitely tell you that the Oakland A’s are open for business. The A’s have three players who could very much help the Red Sox. Starters Sean Manaea and Frankie Montas are reported to be available, while starting catcher Sean Murphy could likely be pried loose. Let’s start there.
We know the Red Sox are interested in upgrading their starting catcher spot. Murphy is a strong-armed catcher with a good reputation for working with pitchers. He’s 27 years young this season and last season he hit 17 homers and 23 doubles in 119 games for Oakland. That’s serious power. The total package was as a league average hitter, which is well above average for a catcher. And there’s likely more in there power-wise. And he has four years left of team control remaining.
On the pitching side, the Red Sox have added three starters this off-season in Michael Wacha, James Paxton, and Rich Hill. That said, none of those guys are likely to be long term solutions in the rotation. Add to that the news that Chris Sale has a fractured rib and Nathan Eovaldi has one year left on his contract, and you can see the team will need some starters, if not now then soon.
Montas is probably the one you really want, but Manaea might be cheaper to acquire, and there’s not a whole lot of difference between them. Manaea allows more balls in play while Montas is more of a Ks and BBs guy, but both had 3-4 win seasons in 2021. Montas had a three win season in 2019 as well, while Manaea spent a lot of time on the IL that year, though he was good when healthy.
The Reds are another team open for business. They have said they don’t intend to trade ace starter Luis Castillo, but considering what else they’ve done, I wouldn’t rule it out. Castillo had a bit of a down season in 2021, but was still worth almost four wins on the year. He’s a K machine normally, striking out almost 30 percent of the batters he faced during the 2019 and 2020 seasons, but those numbers took a step back to 24 percent in 2021. While that wasn’t great, he still generates a ton of grounders, so that limits the number of homers he gives up. He’s a really good pitcher, in short, and it would be extremely expensive to acquire him (think Marcelo Mayer plus). But in theory the option is out there.
The other guy on the Reds who might be available is Joey Votto. Yes, I just wrote a long screed yesterday about how the Red Sox don’t need to sign Freddie Freeman, and I stand by that. But Votto isn’t Freeman. For Boston Votto would be more of a stop gap at first base to Triston Casas. Votto is signed through 2023, so maybe even that is too long a commitment for the Red Sox front office, though DH will open up next year when JD Martinez’s contact expires, so maybe it isn’t. Votto makes significant money ($22.5M annually), but last season he hit .266/.375/.563 with 36 homers. He would be a huge upgrade over Bobby Dalbec and insurance against anything slowing down Casas’s rise towards major league stardom.
What’s more, with the Reds so eager to get out from under long term contracts, it’s possible that not only could the Red Sox get Joey Votto, but that the Reds would pay them for the privilege. Votto has a no-trade clause so he would have to approve a deal to Boston, but considering what’s going on in Cincinnati at the moment, he might be willing to do that.
Beyond that, the two big names who come to mind are Jose Ramirez of Cleveland and Ketel Marte of the Diamondbacks. Ramirez is a third baseman, but he’s played some second base as recently as 2018, which is where the Red Sox would likely use him. He’s got two years left on his contract, both team options at $12 million and $13 million and he’s an MVP-type of hitter. He would be very expensive to acquire.
Marte would be extremely difficult to deal for as well, but he’s a great hitter who plays second base, shortstop, and center field. He would solve a lot of problems for the Red Sox, give them ridiculous defensive flexibility, and he’s signed through this season with ridiculously team-friendly team options for 2023 ($8 million) and 2024 ($10 million).
Internal Options
There are certainly other teams willing to deal that the Red Sox front office are aware of. These are only the most obvious. But suppose none of that piques their interest. There are two other productive ways for the Red Sox to spend their money.
The first is Rafael Devers. Devers will be a free agent following next season (i.e. after the 2023 season), but this is really the time to sign him. One more year closer to free agency will make it harder to get a deal done, and if it’s a breakout season then it’ll be all the more difficult. I’ve written about Devers recently here and to me it comes down to this. If you believe he can play third base, sign him. The bat is special, but it becomes less so if you have to play him at first or DH. At that point, you might be looking at a trade to another team that sees him more as a long term option at third.
Second, there’s Xander Bogaerts. Bogaerts is the incumbent shortstop and the heart of the team. He’ll be a free agent next off-season and while his bat is special, his defense at shortstop leaves a bit to be desired. I’m not all together sure I’d want Bogaerts as the starting shortstop for the next five or six seasons, but that’s likely what it’ll take to get him to stay. It’s a complicated situation, but like most complicated situations, it can be solved by throwing an insanely silly amount of money at it.
So that’s about it. The market is drying up as I type, so if the Red Sox are to get anything done, and they really should want to get something done, the time is now.
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