August was unkind to the Red Sox. Two short days into September, things look a hair better. Winning the last two in Tampa to earn a split with the division leaders alters the outlook in a more positive way, but August… August was what Andy Dufresne crawled through to get out of Shawshank prison.
Now, in a tight race with a constrained roster and a single month left in the season, they face a reckoning. Despite their August tailspin, they still hold a Wild Card spot. Despite their August tailspin, they can still make the playoffs in a season when almost nobody (AHEM) gave them a chance.
But they need a good September.
A good September won’t win them the division. That dream is gone now. But ask the 2004 Yankees how important winning the division was. The goal, as I’m sure Alex Cora will remind you from a safe distance, is to get there. Just get there. All the rest is vanity.*
*OK, that’s not really true as the Division winner avoids the one-game Wild Card playoff, but that all gets in the way of my fancy prose.
So how can the Red Sox, these Red Sox, what’s left of these Red Sox, actually get there?
Where They Are Now
As I write this, the Red Sox are in the second Wild Card spot. They’re 1.5 games behind the Yankees for the first Wild Card, and two games ahead of Oakland for the second. Here are the standings, courtesy of MLB.com, through Thursday’s games.
Before the season started, just about every Red Sox front office member, person in a giant fuzzy green costume, or sports talk radio host would’ve taken these standings if they were offered. The playoffs weren’t expected, yet here we are. So if you’re looking to avoid giving yourself an aneurism, forget about how the standings looked in June. Take the long view!
Based on where they are and their competition and remaining schedule, the Red Sox probably need to reach about 90 wins to make the playoffs. Matt Collins of Over The Monster talked about this on their latest podcast, and I think he’s absolutely right. About 90 wins should get Boston a Wild Card spot. That means the Red Sox need to win 13 of their remaining 26 games. In the words of Jeremy Clarkson, how hard can that be?
Remaining Schedule
Here’s what they have remaining:
3 vs Tampa
3 vs Cleveland
3 at Chicago White Sox
3 at Seattle
2 vs NY Mets
3 vs NY Yankees
3 at Washington
6 vs Baltimore (3 home, 3 on the road)
This slate is the easiest strength of schedule remaining of any AL East team according to FanGraphs.
Nine of those games (Tampa, White Sox, Yankees) are against very good teams. Nine of those are against last place or virtually last place teams (Baltimore, DC). Five of those are against beatable teams that are struggling right now (Mets, Seattle), a definition that, before Wednesday, could have included the Red Sox as well. Fourteen are at home. Twelve are on the road. That all strikes me as a schedule favorable to a team just trying to go a hair over .500.
Fortunately for the Red Sox given their COVID situation, the most important games will come towards the end of the month, when the team stands a better chance to be healthier. The head-to-heads with the Rays matter less now that Boston isn’t competing for the division, but the games against the Yankees, who it would be great to pass so as to get the Wild Card game at Fenway Park instead of Yankees Stadium, will be important. I’d argue though, the most important games, even more so than against the Yankees, will be the games against Baltimore and Washington. Those two teams are bottom of the MLB teams right now. They are free wins. It’s vital Boston take advantage of that and snap every available win up. Every game counts the same in the standings so if they lose two of three to Tampa, they can make it back up and more by sweeping the Orioles and Nats.
Projections
FanGraphs’ projections expect the Red Sox to make the playoffs. Specifically, they show the Red Sox with an 81.5 percent chance to make the playoffs, which is a pretty strong number. Further, they project Boston to finish 92-69, which would be two games behind their projected record for the Yankees and seven back of their projected record for Tampa.
Baseball Prospectus has been the low site on the Red Sox all season long, but even they give the Sox a 66 percent chance to make the playoffs. That lower number comes because they see the Sox only getting to 90 wins. They project Oakland to finish with 88 wins and Toronto to finish with either 86 or 85 wins (they have 85.6 in their projections which obviously can’t happen).
Both projections show a close race, even if they percentages favor Boston. That means any small variance could throw things one way or the other.
The Good…
These aren’t the Red Sox of May or July. They are in some ways better, and in some ways worse. They have Chris Sale atop their rotation. They have Kyle Schwarber to DH or play first. They have a good version (at least now) of Bobby Dalbec. In fact, they’re getting some good offensive production from Alex Verdugo, Hunter Renfroe, and JD Martinez.
The Bad…
But of course it’s not all positive. They have a ton of people missing due to COVID. It’s unclear at the moment to what extent each player has the virus, and thus how sick they are, or if they’re even sick as opposed to being a close contact to someone who is positive and therefore required to sit out until it’s shown they don’t have the virus. It’s certainly possible (and hopeful!) that all the players recover quickly and are able to return and play well, but it’s not something that can be counted upon at the time of this writing.
The Ugly…
A recent problem for the Red Sox has been pitching, specifically the bullpen. Red Sox relievers posted a 5.33 ERA in August, with the biggest culprits being Hansel Robles (7.30 ERA in 12.1 August innings), Austin Davis (5.40 ERA in 11.2), and Matt Barnes (13.5 ERA in 6.2). Robles and Davis aren’t particularly good (I have some hope for Davis… but we’ll get to that another time) but the Red Sox lost multiple games in August to Matt Barnes implosions. Getting Barnes back to being himself would be huge. The potential good news there is Barnes’ last two appearances resulted in 1.2 innings pitched with one hit, a walk, and two strikeouts. All a very Barnesian statline.
Solutions!
Beyond that, the Red Sox are going to depend even more on the Garretts, Whitlock and, surprisingly, Richards, who has a spectacular 0.68 ERA as a reliever in 13.1 innings, with 16 strikeouts, four walks, and just eight hits allowed. The Garretts were the glue that held Boston’s last two wins together. Whitlock pitched a scoreless seventh and eighth innings, including pitching around two lead-off doubles. They were the only hits he allowed. His ERA is down to 1.52. Richards threw three scoreless innings yesterday, including coming in with two runners on and no outs and stranding both. (More on the Garretts coming soon here at Sox Outsider!)
At the plate, losing Enrique Hernandez in the middle of one of his hot streaks hurts, and there’s no replacing Xander Bogaerts, despite the fact that Jack Lopez is a good story and a decent bunter. The addition of Schwarber helps offset those two losses, at least somewhat. So does Bobby Dalbec who I talked about above. Dalbec had the highest wRC+ of anyone on the Red Sox in August, at 214 (114 percent above league average).
What Tomorrow Brings…
Today, Friday, the Red Sox start a six game homestand against Cleveland and, yes, *sigh* Tampa. It’ll be the last time the Red Sox see the Rays during the regular season. Oh drat.
This is the point where the calculus can change fast. Win three in a row and watch the numbers climb. Lose three, and… well, don’t check my twitter feed.
What The Red Sox Need To Do To Make The Playoffs
Aussie Sox Freak who found you Thanks to Allan's JoS
For the last few weeks I have been thinking we JUST need to finish in front of Oakland ......
The last few days has put paid to that theory, now Sea & Tor have vaulted over them
Was looking through the remaining schedule & Oak v Sea is a 7 gamer !!! So hopefully Oak 4-3 ! We still have 3 out in the Rainy City next week I think ? so they are bound to be massive
But ultimately you are correct - the Long View says we'd be done before August & no Sox Freak wouldn't have jumped at this situation in March ....... remember when we lost the Opening 3 to Baltimore !!!!!!!!! Back then I thought we might even manage to lose 163
Covid notwithstanding ...... I think we might make it ...... JUST & I think we deserve to.
As for whether we can avenge Bucky Fuckin Dent ....... I could think of only a handful of games that would be bigger in my Lifetime of 53 years
Bobby Fuckin Dalbec or
Rafael Fuckin Devers has a nice ring to it ........ Maybe ?
Howdy. Came here via Joy of Sox. Am an old, diehard, Canadian Red Sox fan (since 5yo, 1953). Can only follow Sox by being trapped by MLB-TV, where I'm blocked when they play the Jays. Other than that, am enjoying this season immensely and look forward to your take on all things Red Sox.