What If It All Falls Apart

Could the 2021 Red Sox be more like the 2020 Red Sox than we think?

Did you know the Red Sox won the World Series three years ago? It’s true. I double checked to be sure. Since that World Series win, there’s been an absolutely silly amount of change, like a tidal wave wiped the 2018 team off the map. Half the starting lineup and half the rotation are gone. If you count Marcus Walden and Ryan Brasier three of the 18 pitchers who came out of the bullpen in 2018 are left. If you don’t, it’s just Matt Barnes. And that’s to say nothing of the front office turnover and the fact that the Red Sox are technically on their third manager since then!

Since the World Series win, Boston won 84 games, fired their front office, fired their manager, hired a new front office, traded their franchise player, finished last in their division and almost last in all of baseball, and then did, well, that [gestures towards the off-season]. What does all that have to do with this piece? It’s not a far throw from 108 wins and a championship to the fourth pick in the draft. Things can go south right quick.

This off-season I’ve made the case that despite all the above, the Red Sox are on an upward trajectory, that they can make the playoffs this season, that the front office is making smart moves, and the team is moving forward after a rocky two seasons.

But, what if they’re not?

While the case can be made that things are going well, the opposite case can be made that things will go badly. What would it take for this Red Sox team to fall apart, like completely 2020 apart? I can think of three things.

1. Injuries
   
   Injuries can do in any team, so maybe this one isn’t unique, but while the Red Sox have built in a lot of depth over the past year plus, there are some spots where they are still quite vulnerable. I’m thinking specifically of catcher and shortstop. If either Christian Vazquez or Xander Bogaerts goes down for a long stretch, it’s going to be extremely difficult to replace them at even a replacement level. The Red Sox just don’t have players who can come in and play shortstop and hit. Maybe they could call up Jonathan Arauz, though the bat would be a big question mark. Maybe they could call up Jeter Downs and play him at shortstop, but there are questions about his ability to hit major league pitching now (the reason he’s not in the majors starting at second base) and scouting reports say he’s really not a major league quality shortstop. And don’t even talk to me about Christian Vazquez going down. What do you do then? Bring back Blake Swihart? Does Carlton Fisk have a gig? Does anyone know Doug Mirabelli’s phone number?
   
   Beyond that, targeted injuries to Eduardo Rodriguez or Nathan Eovaldi, and any kind of hitch in Chris Sale’s rehabilitation from Tommy John surgery would put a severe crimp in Boston’s starting pitching. And it’s not like those guys have been injury-free in their career or even over the past year.
   

2. Bad Performance
   
   There are too many to list here, but while I’ve highlighted this roster’s upside, there’s real downside here as well. For example, Boston’s second base platoon, every outfielder on the roster, and playing Bobby Dalbec at first base every day. I’m not saying I don’t like some of those players and/or decisions, because I do, but they’re hardly sure things. You really want to put money on Christian Arroyo or Michael Chavis playing an adequate second base, or Franchy Cordero staying healthy? If Dalbec strikes out 40 percent of the time it’s going to be nearly impossible for him to provide much value.
   
   Then there are the established hitters. JD Martinez was awful last year. He’s now a 33-year-old DH. I think he’s going to be fine, but there’s a real chance he’s not fine and a non-zero chance he’s just done. What if he puts up a sub-.700 OPS this season? Thats what he did last season. Everybody’s little cousin Rafael Devers had a down 2020 and while I’ve made the case (convincingly, I hope) that he’s still the same Devers we all know and love and want to push his belly until he giggles like the Pillsbury doughboy, maybe he isn’t. Maybe there’s something I or others have missed in my/our analysis. And even if not, there’s a real possibility Devers isn’t good enough to play third base. That could be the case even if he does return to his established hitting levels.
   
   I didn’t even get into what a tire fire the bullpen could be. I like their depth and think this is the kind of pen that could coalesce over a long season, even with bumps in the road, but it’s possible those bumps in the road are massive potholes and then maybe the road goes out and we all go over a cliff. That could happen!
   

3. The Division Could Be Great
   
   What if the Red Sox really are improved, but the Yankees are a 105-win juggernaut, the Rays are the same team that went to the World Series last year, and the Blue Jays pitching somehow comes together and that plus all their young talent make them world beaters? All that could happen, and the Red Sox, even if they’re better, could be divisional roadkill, unable to compete in a third of their games.

4. All Of The Above
   
   Then imagine if all those things happen, because they’re all independent of each other, for the most part. The division could be insane, injuries could hit the team in their weak points, and the players the team thought they had acquired to be league average or slightly above are all hot garbage. Sort of the bizarro 2013.

Look, this isn’t fun to think about, especially on the eve of the season beginning. But I feel like I’ve presented a pretty rosy viewpoint around here, and while I did that because that’s what I believe, I think it’s important to point out that there is real variance with this team, and there are some glaringly dangerous factors working against them in their quest for the playoffs.

The truth is this is what makes this season so exciting. The variance, the fact that things really could go any number of ways. I’m excited to follow along here, to provide analysis, and to break things down for you. So stick with me here at Sox Outsider. If you like this newsletter/blog thingy I’m doing, tell a friend. Post it on your social media. I appreciate you reading and I’m looking forward to sharing the season withg you.

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