What I Tell Myself
Winning in Philly, sitting the stars, Eduardo, and the Rays being pains in the pooper yet again
There’s nothing wrong with taking two of three on the road in Philadelphia. That’s what I tell myself.
It’s a long season and players need days off. That’s what I tell myself.
Eduardo Rodriguez is just having a bit of a cold spell. That’s what I tell myself.
The Rays won’t win every game left on the schedule. That’s what I tell myself.
If I’m being honest though, I’m not sure I believe myself all the time. Let’s take these one at a time. But before that, if you don’t subscribe to this newsletter, you should! It’s free and it’s about the Red Sox and it’s by me, so you know, you could do worse.
There’s nothing wrong with taking two of three on the road in Philadelphia.
It’s true, actually. Taking two of three from anyone on the road (or at home!) is always good. There are times when the season is winding down and you need a sweep, but in May two of three will always do. Also, the Phillies aren’t a bad team! [looks at standings] OK, the Phillies aren’t good but they’re not bad. [looks back at standings] Ok ok ok, they’re not awful. They’re kiiiinda bad, like a hair better than bad. They have some very good players but whatever who cares they’re the Phillies, point is there’s no shame in winning two of three against them in Philadelphia in May. A sweep is always nice, but winning the first two took the pressure off and I imagine that played a factor in Alex Cora’s lineup construction on Sunday (more on that below).
It’s a long season and players need days off.
This is also true. Xander Bogaerts isn’t Cal Ripken and even if he was, sitting down every once in a while is a good idea, for gosh’s sake. We know J.D. Martinez isn’t Cal Ripken. It’s written right there into his contract: “Player is most certainly not Cal Ripken.” So I get that. [Stephen A voice] But!
The fact that with a potential sweep on the line and an off day the following day Alex Cora decided to play Sunday’s game without Xander Bogaerts and without J.D. Martinez in the lineup is frustrating. I won’t second guess the situation because I’m not in the clubhouse and I don’t know what physical issues the players are dealing with, but sitting both star players left the Red Sox in a bit of a bind, one that showed on the field and in the final score.
Compounding this choice was that it came on a day Alex Verdugo had to sit with a sore hamstring. This team, good as they are, is one that runs offensively on four dudes. When you take three of them out of the lineup, that hurts a lot, and probably a lot more than it would hurt most teams to lose three starters. I’d go so far as to argue it makes winning far less likely.
Teams fight for these tiny advantages over the course of a 162 game season because one game really can be the difference between a chance at a World Series and going home before the playoffs start. So small things can end up meaning a lot. This explains the rise of analytics which is all about taking advantage of small (though sometimes large) things. Gaining a small advantage is something teams spend millions of dollars to accomplish.
And then we get stuff like this.
Again, it’s entirely possible this was a choice in only the strictest sense of the word. Perhaps both players badly needed the day and the fact that it was pushed against an off-day only made the payout in terms of total rest that much sweeter. OK. But if there was any way to, say, play Xander on Sunday and then give him Tuesday off instead…? You know, in the name of not completely shooting yourself in the foot.
Eduardo Rodriguez is just having a cold spell.
Rodriguez, as you know, missed the 2020 season with a nasty bout of COVID. He’s healthy now, but has given up four or five runs in four of his last five starts. He’s not getting torched but his recent performance stands out against a backdrop of extremely competent Red Sox starting pitching.
So what’s going on with Rodriguez? He’s getting hit a bit harder than he did in 2019. A few more line drives, a bit more in the average exit velocity department, but it’s nothing extreme. His pitch mix is slightly different than in 2019, but again, not extremely so. He’s throwing fewer four-seam fastballs and more cutters and sliders. I don’t think any of that is much of what ails him.
Rodriguez is simply giving up more hits than he ever has before. He’s given up 38 hits in his last 25 innings. On the season Rodriguez is giving up 10.5 hits per nine innings, while in his career previous to 2021 he’d given up 8.5. So here’s my theory about Rodriguez: He’s being punished (accidentally) by the Red Sox defense.
If you look at Rodriguez’s season on paper, he’s actually pitching better than he did in 2019. His strikeouts are up (26.2 percent this season compared to 24.8 percent in 2019) and his walks are at a career low (5.3 percent this season, whereas he’s never been below 7.1 percent in a season before). Lots of strikeouts and few walks are the hallmarks of a good pitcher.
The other smaller problem he’s having is homers. He’s giving up homers at a slightly higher rate than he ever has before. Almost 15 percent of all fly balls are turning into homers. In past seasons, Rodriguez has been between 10 and 13 percent. But here’s the thing about that. We’re still in relatively small sample size territory. One homer goes off the top of the wall instead of over it and his numbers look completely different. but when you combine the slight increase in homers and the massive increase in hits allowed it’s not hard to see where more runs might result, even if there are fewer baserunners from walks and fewer balls in play from more strikeouts.
All of which is to say I’m optimistic about the entire package. The low walk rate is a great indicator with the higher strikeout rate. His velocity started to climb back up into the mid-90s during his last start. These are good things, things to hang your hat on. And with the way the rest of the rotation is performing, there’s time for him to iron things out around the edges a bit.
The Rays won’t win every game left on their schedule.
They won’t. Even with this hot stretch the Red Sox are still out-hitting and out-pitching them on the season. The Rays are a good team. I think we knew that coming into the season. They have one of the deepest rosters in the game and one of the smartest front offices. They’re not going anywhere, but they are going to lose a game or two before this month ends, and a few more after that as well. My guess is by the time the Red Sox face them in late June, things will look a bit different than they do now.
The Sox start up a two game set with the Braves today, get Thursday off before three in Boston against Miami, then they finish up May with the first of four games in Houston. After that, it’s the season’s first trip to the Bronx. It’s been a fun ride so far, but the Rays passed the Red Sox in the standings yesterday. If the Red Sox want to win the division, it appears the rest of the AL East (minus Baltimore) isn’t going to lay back and let it happen. Drat.