The Sox Outsider 2022 Red Sox Season Preview

Baseball season is here so it's time to prep for the season!

Nothing says possibility like Opening Day. It’s both the start of and the return of a something; it’s the first step of a marathon, it’s a national holiday, it’s a million other cliches, all of them true. For fans of baseball it’s the day on the calendar to look forward to above all others.

For the 2022 Boston Red Sox, Opening Day represents a chance to build upon the successes of the 2021 season, one that saw them deliciously eliminate division foes New York and Tampa in successive playoff rounds before falling in six games to Houston in the AL Championship Series. Every team will say they expect success, they expect to win their division, to make the playoffs, to succeed at baseball’s highest level. But not every team goes into the season with legitimate championship aspirations. This team may not be the favorite, but they hold a claim to those aspirations as much as any other.

But I’m getting ahead of myself.

At the time of this writing, the 2022 Boston Red Sox are just a theory, an idea, a bunch of names on a website. This Thursday Friday though, all those pixelated words take full form in the Bronx, New York, as the Red Sox begin their season against the Yankees.

So hey, let’s preview the crap outta this thing!

Before we get into the depths of this Season Preview, let me take a moment to thank everyone for reading. Thank you! I appreciate the support through a tough off-season. I hope this Red Sox season is a fun one and that my coverage of it here at Sox Outsider adds something to your enjoyment. So if you already subscribe, thank you! If you don’t, please do! It’s free, so why not, right?

Let’s begin with an off-season refresher.

Off-Season Refresher

Probably the biggest top-line take-away from the Red Sox offseason is the death of Tampa Bay North. The Red Sox under Chaim Bloom cultivated a narrative that they were a version of Bloom’s former employer, the Rays. Meaning, in essence, they were cheap. The Red Sox were never that, but narratives take hold and don’t let go like old bubble gum on a desk. The signing of now ex-Rockie Trevor Story should put this one to rest, at least for a year or two. Also, it should teach me that there is no E in Story.

Story is the most significant signing of the Bloom era. He fills a hole at second base dating back to Dustin Pedroia. He provides insurance against Xander Bogaerts leaving next year. And he lengthens the Boston lineup.

Since his breakout in 2018 as a 25-year-old, Story ranks 11th among hitters in the game by fWAR. He’s an above average fielder with great range who will lead to an almost endless amount of puns based on his last name. He’ll make the team’s leaky infield defense better, and he frees up now former second baseman Christian Arroyo to move to a depth role, one he’s more suited for.

Story is a true five tool player, though the arm injury he suffered last season might drop that down to four tools. He’s fast, he can steal bases (20 last season), he takes a walk, he doesn’t strike out much (27 percent for his career, but he’s not been above 25 percent since 2019), and he’s the rare middle infielder with 30 homer pop in his bat.

If there are concerns, they center around his transition from Colorado, a place that props up offensive stats at home, but depresses them on the road. Story’s transition to Boston should help him keep up the good home stats, but now he won’t have to deal with the constant switching from altitude that can crater a Rockies player on the road. There’s every reason to be optimistic the Red Sox have brought a star to Boston.

Beyond Story, the off-season was on the lean side. Unless you’re a huge Jake Diekman fan. Or you’re Matt Strahm’s mom. Beyond middle reliever additions the Red Sox brought back old friend Jackie Bradley, Jr along with two prospects at the cost of starting right fielder Hunter Renfroe. It was assumed Bradley would take a fourth outfielder role, but the addition of another starter in right field never materialized and now the job is Bradley’s, at least against right handed pitching.

Bradley was legitimately the worst regular hitter in baseball last season, so it’s not at all clear he can hold down a starting job of any type. It’s even less clear why a contending team would ask him to try, but that’s where we are.

Otherwise the Red Sox off-season was defined by who left Boston, a theme that it seems we’ll be addressing again in short order. *sigh* Eduardo Rodriguez left the Sox for the green green grass of Detroit while Kyle Schwarber felt his diet was too good and decamped for Philadelphia, home of massive fried meat sandwiches. Similarly Garrett Richards and Martin Perez moved on, though with as little fanfare as you can fathom. It seems unlikely either will be able to gain entrance to a Red Sox old timers game in 10 years without purchasing a ticket.

Beyond those changes, the team looks extremely similar. In fact, the lineup figures to bring back seven of last season’s regulars, so Red Sox fans should have at least one more season of familiar faces. The rotation and bullpen are, again, headlined by Nathan Eovaldi and Matt Barnes, with, again, Chris Sale on the injured list. The more things change the more they stay the same.

What looms over the franchise is the coming offseason when an ungodly amount of the roster is a year away from free agency. After the 2022 season the contracts of Xander Bogaerts, Rafael Devers, Enrique Hernandez, Christian Vazquez, Nathan Eovaldi, and J.D. Martinez will all expire. Rafael Devers will be a season away from free agency and if he isn’t extended is a likely trade candidate. All of these players leaving will open a massive amount of payroll space and create a similarly massive talent vacuum. Think Wile E. Coyote running through the side of the Space Shuttle while its orbiting the Earth. Sure, there are a lot of options out there but oh my gosh help help I can’t breathe.

The Red Sox did make an effort to extend both Devers and Bogaerts in recent weeks, but weren’t able to reach agreement with either player as of this writing. Both players have expressed a desire to cut off negotiations when the season begins, though there probably isn’t anyone stopping Chaim Bloom from dropping $300 million on Devers’ doorstep on May 1st should the mood strike.

As Devers has another year under team control, there’s more time to work out a deal with him. Bogaerts seems resigned to testing the market after this season. That’s sad. There will be time to lament his leaving if it comes to that, but as for the impact on 2022, it’s a storyline that will hang over the team all season long.

The Division

Last season, four AL East teams won over 90 games. That best-in-show quality of competition doesn’t figure to change in 2022. To win the division, the Red Sox will have to go through three of the best teams in baseball.

The Yankees off-season wasn’t reminiscent of the 2000s when they routinely grabbed the top three players every off-season. Well, it seemed that way anyway. This off-season was a more sedate adventure from the New Yorkers, but they did acquire Josh Donaldson, though he is 36 now and often hurt. They’re also getting starter Luis Severino back from injury. Severino hasn’t pitched for the Yankees since 1918. Sorry, 2018. It just feels like 1918. Other than that, New York brought back Anthony Rizzo on a one year contract to play first base, and will have Joey Gallo, last season’s trade deadline acquisition, for the whole year.

This off-season, the Rays made their typical 437 trades, all involving middle relievers and comp round draft picks. They did make one huge move though, signing star shortstop Wander Franco to a massive extension guaranteeing he’ll remain in Tampa for as long as the Rays feel like keeping him around. They also brought up top prospect Josh Lowe (to replace Austin Meadows, who they traded to Detroit) and signed former Cy Young winner Corey Kluber away from the Yankees for reasons.

It’s the Blue Jays though who had the biggest, splashiest off-season. Toronto lost All Star second baseman Marcus Semien and AL Cy Young winner Robbie Ray, but somehow came out on top in the talent game. The Blue Jays signed starter Kevin Gausman, who finished sixth in the NL Cy Young last season, all star third baseman Matt Chapman in a trade with the A’s, and added ex-M’s starter Yusei Kikuchi from the free agent market to round out their rotation. According to faceless nameless pundits, Toronto is the favorite to reach the World Series out of the American League.

Oh, and the Orioles still exist.

If you were wondering what the projection systems say, wonder no more. FanGraphs projects the Red Sox to win 87 games and finish two games up on the Rays, but four games behind the Yankees and five behind Toronto. Baseball Prospectus thinks the Yankees will win 99 games and finish 10 games up on Toronto, 13 up on the Red Sox, and 14 on Tampa. Take from that what you will.

While either of those finishes might be a problem for the Red Sox, a big difference between the 2021 and 2022 seasons is the existence of a third Wild Card spot. Now the three division winners will make the playoffs and so will the three non-division winning teams in each league with the best records. In a reminder of what a meat grinder of a division the Red Sox find themselves in, FanGraphs projects the three Wild Card teams will all come from the AL East. BP has Toronto, Minnesota, and the Angels as the AL Wild Card teams.

And now it’s time for…

Three Big Questions Facing The 2022 Red Sox

1. Can Chris Sale stay healthy?

So far this is a resounding NO. The erstwhile ace didn’t pitch at all in 2020 thanks to Tommy John surgery. While he returned in 2021, it was later than hoped for, to the point where Sale has totaled 42.2 innings since 2019. That was supposed to change in 2022, but already he’s suffered a broken rib and won’t be able to rejoin the team until June at the earliest. So, never mind.

Sale has two more seasons after this under contract and it’s even money at best as to whether or not the Red Sox will get any value from him. A Red Sox team with 2018-era Chris Sale at the top of the rotation is a far greater threat to make noise in the postseason, and the Red Sox can probably survive without Sale until mid-summer, especially with the more forgiving playoff format. If he’s able to regain his ace-ness at that point, it will make a significant difference in the team’s post-season odds and it’ll all be worth it, or at least that’s what we’ll all say in the moment. But right now, betting on that seems foolish.

2. Is the pitching good enough?

With a healthy Chris Sale, this rotation looks the part of a contender. Without Sale, which is where we are and where we figure to be for a while, maybe less so. Actually, definitely less so. If physically forced to characterize the 2022 Red Sox pitching staff before a single pitch was thrown in anger, I’d say it has enough depth, but maybe not enough quality.

Nathan Eovaldi is a great starting point. He limited walks and kept the ball in the yard while throwing 182 innings last season, 12th in all of baseball. Great as Eovaldi was last season (and in 2020 as well), a guy with two TJs is maybe not the guy you’d like to pin your team’s hopes on. But that’s where we are because after Eovaldi, things drop off.

Nick Pivetta was a canny pickup by Bloom from Philadelphia at the 2020 trade deadline. Pivetta was a key part of the back of the rotation last season and played a huge role in the team’s playoff success. He can get you innings and strikeouts, which is a nice start, but where ever Nick Pivetta goes, walks and homers tend to follow. This can be embarrassing in social situations. As a number four or five in the rotation, that’s fine. You can live with that. As a number two? Scarier.

After Pivetta is Tanner Houck, a promising young starter who has some command and control issues and owing to his extreme arm slot, comes with some problems against left handed batters. Houck can crush a lineup of right handed hitters for five or six innings, but start to sprinkle in lefties and the results take a nose dive. Houck is working on a third pitch, a splitter, that should help him get left handed hitters out. If he can harness that a bit, he can absolutely pitch out of the rotation, though probably never as a huge innings eater due to his command. But an absolute asset, for sure. If he can’t get that split to split though, well, the Red Sox probably need to move him back to the bullpen. Which, considering we’re talking about the third starter, is potentially a problem.

After Houck it’s a hodgepodge of Remember A Guy guys. Michael Wacha? I remember that guy! Didn’t he pitch behind Bob Gibson in 1968? Has he pitched for the Mets yet? He has? Uh-oh! James Paxton? He’s the ‘either good or hurt’ guy, right? So how’s he doing? He’s hurt? Oh. Rich Hill? Dick Mountain! Awesome! But when your age is the same as Jackie Robinson’s uniform number… also he really did pitch for the Mets last season.

Uh oh.

Last season the Red Sox did a great job of keeping their pitchers healthy. That meant they minimized the innings thrown by their 6th, 7th, 8th, and 9th starters. The further down that list you go the less likely you are to win that day’s game. When you can avoid that list altogether, even if you’re starting your fifth starter that day, you’re still not starting your 8th.

All of which is to say, if the Red Sox are to contend, they’re going to need to come within shouting distance of last year’s impressive health record. Chris Sale’s rib issue isn’t a great start.

3. Did the Red Sox improve enough defensively?

Well, since it’s pretty much exactly the same team as last season, no, probably not. The two changes though are defensive upgrades. Trevor Story should be a consistent improvement at second base and Jackie Bradley will play better defense than Hunter Renfroe in right field. The cost, at least in right, figures to be a huge hit in the batters box, but I’ll ignore that in attempt to stay on topic.

Last season the Red Sox were a defensively challenged team. This year they figure to be marginally better. Bradley is an upgrade but it’s unclear if he can hit enough to keep his glove in the lineup (how’s that for a sentence?). Beyond the two additions, things figure to be pretty much the same. The left side of the infield should continue to be a sieve. First base will be below average, at least until or unless Triston Casas is called up from Triple-A.

The one big difference between 2021 and 2022 beyond the above is that for some reason, possibly because Alex Cora wants to see me dead, the Red Sox have discussed playing J.D. Martinez in the outfield more often. This might make some sense if A) it was in left field, and B) they had re-signed Kyle Schwarber. But, A) it isn’t, and B) they didn’t. I’m already tempted to start lobbing swear words about this, but at least for now this has the possibility to be just something Cora said during Spring Training. Let’s wait until they actually do it before I have a coronary mid-sentence about it.

Should they actually do this more than once though, and God forbid if they actually do it regularly, any defensive gains they might have gotten from JBJ in right field and Story at second will be flushed down the proverbial toilet. As will my TV set.

And now it’s time for…

Three players I’m ALL IN on in 2022

The first is…

Rafael Devers

The funny thing about Devers is, despite his child-like smile, and overall silliness, we forget how incredibly young he is. Despite making his MLB debut in 2017, Devers is only 25-years-old. Twenty-five! Everything he’s done so far in the majors was done at an age when most prospects are still in the minor leagues.

There are two things about Devers to discuss. First, his defense. Devers may never be a great defensive third baseman, but he’s got the ability to be an average one. This is the year he makes that leap. He has the arm for it, and this spring he’s shown a newfound maturity and work ethic. Some pessimism masquerading as optimism: this is the year Devers puts it all together defensively [applause], something that will make the cost of extending him go up [crickets].

At the plate, there are very few players who hit the ball as hard as Devers does. But now he’s started to learn the strike zone. Over the past few seasons he’s been swinging at fewer pitches outside the zone and walking more. He’s getting himself out less often. Pitchers will either have to come in to him more, or put him on base in front of Bogaerts, Martinez, and Story.

You heard it here first: when this season is over, Devers will be a top three finisher for the AL MVP.

Garrett Whitlock

Whitlock’s story will never fail to be the epitome of a chef’s kiss GIF. Taken clean right off the Yankees roster and plucked into the Red Sox bullpen to become their best reliever last year and the guy on the mound who closed out the Wild Card game against the Yankees.

This is the year when Whitlock becomes even more of a Yankees problem. This year he becomes a fixture in the rotation.

On paper, where games are won, there’s no reason this can’t and shouldn’t succeed. Whitlock throws three above average pitches. He’s big and strong and throws hard. He strikes batters out, doesn’t walk too many guys, and perhaps most importantly, keeps the ball on the ground enough to limit homers allowed.

The only two issues for Whitlock are building up his strength in order to join the rotation, and getting the chance to do so. Manager Alex Cora has said he’s going to use Whitlock as the back end of a piggyback with Rich Hill. This means, in essence, that although he’s in the bullpen, he’s actually in the rotation. This is the first step. The Yankee are holding their breath.

Trevor Story

Last season Trevor Story played hurt almost all year long. He finished with well above average defense at the toughest defensive position outside of catcher and pitcher and a league average batting line. This season he’s healthy and he’s moved to an easier position. Expect a return to a .300/.350/.550 batting line or thereabouts. The Red Sox just signed a superstar.

Analyzing the Lineup

I was going to discuss the lineup and the rotation, but I already touched on the rotation a fair bit above. So, quickly, this should be a strong lineup. I know that’s not breaking new ground, but it’s true. There are some questions though.

First, the strength of this lineup is going to be Devers, Martinez, Bogaerts, and Story. There should be a lot of production coming from those four spots. (Another reason I hate playing Martinez in the outfield is you’re begging him to get hurt, something which could really damage the lineup.) That should be four .900 OPSs in a row, or at least at the top of the lineup in some order. There are other lineups in baseball that can boast something similar, but none that can boast something better, at least not in just those four spots.

After those four, Enrique Hernandez, Alex Verdugo, and Bobby Dalbec will decide how good this lineup is overall. The straw that stirs the drink is Hernandez. If he repeats the star turn he took in 2021, he’ll set himself up for a massive payday as an elite hitter who can play an above average center field. He’ll also turn this lineup from good to great. Last year I whined about how he didn’t get on base in the leadoff spot. That’s because in the first half of the season, Hernandez put up a .317 on-base percentage. I don’t know if he reads Sox Outsider, but sure, let’s say he does. He likely read about 20 times about how the primary job of the leadoff hitter is to get on base. Well, in the second half of the season, Hernandez put up a .361 on-base, an elite number. He continued that into the post-season. That’s elite reading comprehension.

Maybe it’s because it’s 1am, but it occurs to me that if you could somehow combine Alex Verdugo and Bobby Dalbec into one guy, call him Bobex Verdalbec, he’d be pretty darn good. Verdugo puts the bat on the ball well. He won’t strike out much, and he’ll take a walk if it’s offered. But the power just wasn’t there last year. In contrast, forget putting one over the Monster, Dalbec can smoke one through the monster. His power is extraordinary. It’s all the other stuff he needs to work on. If one or both of those guys plays up to their potential, the lineup and team run generation stands to benefit.

After those guys, we have JBJ and Christian Vazquez. If the Red Sox get anything out of those players offensively it’ll be a surprise. But it’s only two guys at the back of the lineup so you can live with it. The long and short of it is, with standard health and luck, this is going to be a very good lineup.

If everything goes badly… 

Injuries. No team is immune to a few well-placed injuries, especially to top members of the starting rotation. A few down seasons from secondary lineup members would turn Boston’s run scoring prowess down a few notches from elite to just good, maybe not enough to overcome an injury-depleted and not quite as talented pitching staff.

The real nightmare scenario for the fans would be a Red Sox team hopelessly out of contention headed towards the trade deadline. At that point it might be a repeat of 2020, with a massive amount of talent headed out the door for prospects, while the last two months of the season are spent crying in our collective beers while hoping for a good draft position.

If all goes well, it looks like this: 

The Red Sox rotation stayed healthy enough to hold out for reinforcements Sale and James Paxton. Their potent lineup is enough to overcome a sometimes shaky rotation. The bullpen proves to be something that Chaim Bloom can simply conjure at a moment’s notice. It’s a superpower left over from his time with the Rays.

The end result probably looks a lot like 2021. The Red Sox make the playoffs, probably not as the division winner, though maybe, and due to a combination of skill and will, take out a few unsuspecting teams along the way. Perhaps they go further than last year. As they say at Outback Steakhouse, there are no rules. Teams have won World Series on less than a rotation of Eovaldi, Sale, Paxton, and Whitlock with a powerful and deep lineup and some bullpen pixy dust.

My Guess

If you’ve come this far, well, I owe you a beer. Unless you’re a kid. Then no beer for you. I’ll get you a cola. Either way, thanks so much for reading. If you haven’t already, please subscribe. It should be a fun season, but even if it’s not, it’ll be more fun if we live it together.

This year’s Red Sox are fascinating from a detached standpoint. They could really end up in either direction. For once though I’m going to say things don’t veer wildly in either direction. My guess is 88 wins and a Wild Card spot. That ol’ 2021 magic isn’t quite there though and they go out quickly to face an off-season that will define the team for the next decade.