The Plan In Center Field

Despite the lack of movement, things are starting to come into focus for Boston

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Playing without a center fielder is akin to trying to mix cake batter without a bowl. You could do it, but it’s going to create quite a mess. What the Red Sox have in center field now is a bunch of guys who could play center field. That can work, but at a certain point you’re going to want to get your cake batter out of that Amazon box and, well, you see my point.

By my count Boston has five guys on the roster who have played center field or who could play center field.

1. Hunter Renfroe - Renfroe played 15 innings of center field for the Padres in 2019. Please no.

2. Enrique Hernandez - Shockingly Hernandez has played over 1,100 innings in center during his career, but only played three games there last season and 20 the year before. He’s a ‘the building is on fire’ option in center.

3. Andrew Benintendi - In theory Benintendi should be able to do this. And in fact, if things had played out as they were maybe expected to a few years ago, this would be his year to step into center. But, as Alex Speier of the Boston Globe noted, Benintendi’s foot speed has declined every year he’s been in the league. He’s gone from an 89th percentile runner to a 43rd percentile runner, which is just not good enough to play center field. He can step in if need be, but unless something changes drastically, he’s not a permanent fix at center.

4. Alex Verdugo - Here’s your starting center fielder right now. Despite having only slightly better foot speed than Benintendi, Verdugo gets better jumps and runs better routes. He graded out as about an average center fielder during his 61 games (475 innings) playing the position for the Dodgers in 2019. He’s not JBJ, but he’s serviceable at the position, and there’s probably not a huge difference between him and the other non-JBJ center fielders still available.

5. Jarren Duran - Here’s the wild card. This is weird to say because we’re talking about a guy who last played 82 games in Double-A and put up a .634 OPS, but the buzz about Duran is impossible to ignore. He’s a converted infielder whose immense speed was wasted in the infield, but turned loose in the outfield, he can use it to run down balls (hmmm… reminds me of someone but I can’t quite put my finger on it.

   

   How fast is Duran? He’s pretty fast. But the big question is the bat. The good news on that front is he changed his swing and improved his power output significantly. Here’s part of the scouting report on Duran from the fine folks at Sox Prospects:

   Above-average raw power after 2020 swing adjustments. Increased strength and added loft in swing allow him the drive the ball to all fields, but especially to the pull side. Prior to 2020 change, had below-average raw power. Still needs to show that the swing changes work in real (rather than sim) games, but they could significantly change his in-game power projection. 

   This is an increasingly intriguing package, and Duran is already 24, so he should be ready for the majors sometime soon, perhaps this year.

This is what I wanted to get at. I’ve been advocating for the Red Sox to re-sign Jackie Bradley, and I still think bringing back JBJ is the best way to make the 2021 Red Sox the best team they can be. In fact, I wrote about that yesterday, and I stand by it. But of course 2021 isn’t the end of the world. OK, I phrased that badly. Suppose the world continues after 2021. The Red Sox want to be set up for that should it, you know, occur.

Now more Bradley news has come out and it appears Bradley’s agent, Scott Boras, is asking for a larger contract than perhaps was expected. Yes, I know you’re shocked.

Mike Puma @NYPost_Mets

Hard to pinpoint where the Mets are in negotiations with Jackie Bradley Jr., right now, but he has been seeking a significant contract, perhaps beyond four years.

The Red Sox might’ve gone two years for Bradley, but they weren’t going to go three and they’re definitely not going four and well five is probably one of those good in-jokes around the office, like the time Phil snarfed milk through his nose during that important meeting and then later you found out that Phil hadn’t even been drinking milk. Phil!

Put these pieces together and the picture is starts to come into focus. If Bradley had been amenable to a one or two year deal, he’d likely be in Boston right now. Sox GM Chaim Bloom has said the team can go over the luxury tax if it wants to (though I’m sure they’d prefer not to) and the certainty of having Bradley on a short term deal has got to be favorable to the more unknown situation they’re in currently. So if they could’ve signed Bradley for two years and $20 million or something, I’m sure it would’ve happened. But now we’re seeing that two years, $20 million isn’t in the ballpark of what Bradley is asking for. It doesn’t seem like it’s in the state either. That’s his right and that’s fine and great for him, but it’s not what the Red Sox are gonna give him.

So, if you don’t have Bradley, and there’s nothing else out there on the free agent market of any significance at center field, and you have this guy who was going to be your right fielder but he’s totally fine in center for a season, and you have this hotshot speedster in the minor leagues who just implemented a swing change and is absolutely crushing the ball and your scouts love the heck out of him, maybe you put Verdugo in center and Duran in Triple-A to start the year, and if Duran is crushing it a few months in, you call him up and move Verdugo over to right. If you sign JBJ you can’t really do that. But now you can. But if Duran isn’t hitting or doesn’t look quite ready, you have someone who can hold down center for a year at a competent level and you can address it again next off-season. And in the meantime you still have that money you were gonna give Bradley to spend at the trade deadline on a corner outfielder if the team is in contention. How would Michael Conforto look in right field at Fenway?

So that’s the plan. If Bradley’s market collapses, the Red Sox will be there. And there have been reports that Boston is checking in on him. If they can get him at a reasonable rate, I think that still could happen. But if we’re talking about four and five year contracts then it’s Verdugo as the stopover until Duran is ready, or at least until the trade deadline when they can re-assess.