The First Domino Falls (sorta): Kiké Hernandez Signs For 2023

That solves centerfield! Now to shortstop, third base, catcher, right field, and just about every pitching position ever created; Also: Triston Casas comes up!

With so many decisions looming following this season and the off-season rapidly approaching, it makes sense to get a head start. Clearly the Red Sox agree, as they re-signed Enrique Hernandez to a one year, $10 million deal on Monday. The deal will keep the fan favorite in Boston through 2023, his age-31 season, and fills the starting center field job for next year.

And that’s not all! There have been other moves besides bringing back Hernandez. The 2023 Red Sox are starting to take shape. So let’s talk about it! But first, I’m going to ask you to subscribe. Please subscribe. There. I asked you to subscribe. Why? Well, it’s free and you get everything I write about the Red Sox delivered to your in-box free of charge as soon as I write it. Good deal, huh? I think so. Just click the button. I appreciate it.

This deal makes sense. That’s different from loving it, or from winning the deal in terms of dollars-per-WAR, though that could happen. Mostly this is just something the Red Sox needed to do, or maybe I should say it’s something and the Red Sox needed to do something, so this qualifies. The Red Sox are facing a ton of moving parts following this season, so starting to nail things down a little bit wherever possible is just smart. We can discuss whether this specific move qualifies as “smart” or not, but generally doing things now definitely is.

Hernandez is finishing up the second season of a two year, $14 million deal. The first season he hit .250/.337/.449 with excellent defense in center field. That combination made him a 4-5 win player, depending on which site you look at. More importantly, he was a big part of the Red Sox turnaround following a dismal 2020 season both on the field and in the clubhouse. He was gregarious, fun, good, and when it came to the post-season, he was as clutch as could be. It was one of those seasons that pays for the whole contract.

But there was another season to go as well, so the Red Sox were really playing with found money when it came to Kiké’s 2022 season. There was every reason to think he could re-approximate his ‘21 season in some sense as it wasn’t flukey, but that didn’t happen. Hernandez got off to a rotten start (as did the rest of the roster), posting a 75 OPS+ between April and May (an OPS 25 percent below league average) before getting hurt and missing almost all of June, all of July, and half of August. Since he’s come back, he’s been more fine than effervescent, posting an OPS+ of 93 (seven percent below league average), but he’s at least approximated what the Red Sox were expecting out of him when they signed him.

So what’s the appeal to giving Hernandez an extra season, considering his rough-at-best an injury-filled 2022? There are a number of reasons. The first has to be his defense in center field. Hernandez still grades out as a plus defensive center fielder, even considering his injured hip. He has one of the best reaction times in center and his speed gets him to balls well before others could reach them. His route-running isn’t spectacular, but it has improved as he’s played the position more over the years. Ultimately, he’s a very good center fielder and those aren’t easy to acquire. After looking at Jackie Bradley and Jarren Duran this season, the Red Sox must be convinced they don’t have anyone under club control for 2023 that fills that bill. I happen to agree with them there.

Beyond that, Hernandez has upside. We all saw what he did in 2021. Those skills might have degraded slightly, the Red Sox did just sign Hernandez for his age-31 season after all, but a league average hitting center fielder with plus defensive skills and the ability to play other positions if necessary is a pretty good fit. And if he hits better than league average as he did in 2021, great!

Also, bringing back Hernandez is a win for the clubhouse. I can’t quantify it, but that’s not nothing, especially following the Christian Vazquez debacle.

The downside to having Hernandez on the roster is, in fact, what we saw from him this year. Injuries can ruin any player’s season and that’s clearly what happened to Hernandez in 2022. Could that happen again in 2023? Absolutely. No question. But there are going to be warts on any player who is Hernandez’s age and skillset and is willing to sign a one year contract.

I suspect that’s a big reason why both parties decided to run this back. Hernandez was likely concerned about what the free agent market held in store for him coming off an injured and mediocre-at-the-plate campaign, and the Red Sox decided that, given what the free agent market had available plus what they have organizationally at the center field position, trying this again wasn’t a bad option. We’ve seen what it looks like when it goes well (2021) so there’s that. Also, this gives the organization another year to find the proverbial center fielder of the future, be that on the free agent market, through trade, or from their own minor league system.

Above, I talked about whether this qualifies as a smart move or not. Maybe that wasn’t quite the best question. More than smart, it qualified as “available.” The fact that Hernandez is currently under contract meant he was available to negotiate a deal with the club right now, in contrast to anyone they might acquire this off-season, who the club would have to wait to negotiate with. Hernandez’s upside, which we all saw on display in 2021, also makes him appealing, and then there’s the fact that this is a one-year deal. One year deals limit risk for the club (if things go badly, you’re not on the hook for anything past the season), so if Hernandez looks more like his 2022 self in 2023, the Red Sox can make a move in-season if necessary without creating damage beyond the 2023 season.

Also (also), when you have so many things you need to do in a limited time frame, sometimes you have to tick things off the list. Don’t make it overly complicated by trying to acquire a perfect long-term solution at each spot. There’s just not time and effort available for that. That’s how you miss out on other things and end up with backups at important spots on the diamond.

So now the Red Sox have a starting center fielder for 2023. It’s not peak-era Johnny Damon. It’s not Julio Rodriguez. But it’s not bad. If Hernandez stays healthy, it’s probably more than fine. More to the point, having Hernandez locked up for 2023 allows the club to focus on the many other open positions going into the off-season.

In three years Enrique Hernandez very likely won’t be the starting center fielder for the Boston Red Sox. But there’s nothing wrong with having him there in 2023. So check ‘starting center field’ off the list and move on to the next item.

Welcome to Boston, Triston Casas!

The Red Sox finally bowed to the inevitable and called up top prospect (or second overall behind Marcelo Mayer, depending on who you talk to) first baseman Triston Casas from Triple-A Worcester. A first round draft pick of the Red Sox back in 2018, Casas is a massive person, measuring 6’4 tall and 250 pounds. As you might expect from someone of his build, he’s a powerful hitter. He hits the ball really hard and really far. This, as the kids say, is good.

But he’s not just a powerful hitter. He’s also a patient hitter who works counts looking for his pitch. He’s not afraid to hit behind in the count or to draw a walk, and that’s something this iteration of the Red Sox could sorely use. The Red Sox as as team are 24th in baseball in walk percentage, tied with the Miami Marlins at 7.4 percent. Putting Casas in the lineup will only help this.

Add to all that that Casas is also an adept fielder at first, again, something the Red Sox really need, and you can see what a perfect fit he is for this team right now and going forward. That last part is key, too. “Going forward.” Yes the Red Sox just acquired Eric Hosmer and yes the Padres are paying his salary for the next two seasons making him effectively free (the Red Sox are paying him the major league minimum), but first base has got to be Casas’ position now. We’ll see how the front office plays this during the off-season, but having two first-base-only players on the 26 man roster doesn’t make a ton of sense, especially considering one of them (Hosmer) doesn’t hit a ton and isn’t much of a defender at first either.

Both these moves, re-signing Hernandez and bringing up Casas, are preludes to 2023. I’ve written about it before here and it’s not a secret, but the Red Sox face a bit of a gauntlet this off-season. Xander Bogaerts is expected to opt-out of his contract, Rafael Devers will have one more year of team control meaning it’ll be time to re-sign him or (*gasp*) trade him, and the team will also be looking for an outfield corner, a starting catcher, and about a billion pitchers. [pause for breath] It’s a lot to do, but you can cross starting center fielder and starting first baseman off the list. Those spots have been filled.

Good-Bye to Hirokazu Sawamura (probably) and Austin Davis, Hello to Kaleb Ort (again) and Zack Kelly

In another couple moves intended to assist the organization in getting ready for the 2023 season, the club DFA’d relievers Austin Davis and Hirokazu Sawamura.

Davis came over from Pittsburgh in the Michael Chavis deal at the trade deadline last season. He performed reasonably well as a lefty who gets lefty hitters out but gets crushed by right-handed hitters, but this year was a bit of a step down. The strikeouts dropped a bit and righties hit him like they were Juan Soto. Clearly it got to the point where the club had seen enough and decided he wasn’t part of their long-term plans. Davis was picked up by the Twins and is on their active roster, although he has yet to pitch for them.

Sawamura came over from Japan on a two year deal. There were strikeouts last season, but also too many walks and home runs allowed. This year the walks and homers dipped a bit, but the strikeouts dried up. That and he gave up a ton of extremely loud contact. The Red Sox decided nothing else was getting wrung out of this stone and cut bait. Unlike Davis though, Sawamura went unclaimed and ultimately accepted an assignment to Triple-A.

Likely the reason he went unclaimed is that there’s a clause in his contract that gives both he and the Red Sox a chance to keep him in 2023, a clause that any team who claimed him would have been on the hook for, as you shall see. The Red Sox can activate their club option and keep Sawamura next season for $3.7 million, or, in the extremely likely event they decline that option, Sawamura has a player option that he can activate for $1.9 million. Sawamura can also decline his player option and be paid a $1 million buy-out. (All these numbers come from this article by the great Chris Cotillo of MassLive.com.)

So we might not have seen the last of Sawamura in a Red Sox uniform, although it would take a confluence of events including Sawamura deciding he’d rather be paid an extra $0.9 million to pitch in Triple-A (where the Red Sox would likely keep him) than to pocket a million bucks and test the free agent market.

But let’s pull ourselves of the weeds here. The overall point of the moves was to remove some players who weren’t long-term pieces from the organization and, bonus second part!, to bring up a few guys from Triple-A who might be factors in 2023. Those two guys are relievers Kaleb Ort and Zack Kelly. Both are righties with fastballs in the mid-90s who have had success at Triple-A this season.

Both Ort and Kelly are older than guys you’d typically describe as prospects. Kelly will be 28 next season and Ort will be 31, so why bring up two guys who are maybe more organization filler than genuine pitching prospects?

I think this is a bit like a self-scouting opportunity for the Red Sox. Bring up two guys who could be something or could be nothing and get a look at them over the last month of the season against major league competition. Maybe they do well. Maybe you see something that can unlock something more in one of them. Maybe they’re not competitive options for 2023 in which case, fine, cross them off the list.

Sadly, despite the recent win streak, the 2022 Red Sox are, if not mathematically so, at least realistically dead in the water in terms of reaching the playoffs. That’s why we’re starting to see moves that look to the 2023 season. Considering what the Red Sox still have to do, hopefully we’ll be seeing more before the season is out.

Thanks for reading.