The 2024 Boston Red Sox Team Preview: Sox Outsider Style!
On the team's off-season, the roster, the pitching staff, the front office, the prospects, and the future of the organization, all right here in the 2024 Red Sox Season Preview!
Writing a preview of the 2024 Red Sox isn’t really all that different than reviewing the 2023 Red Sox. Remember the meme of the two Spidermen (Spidermans?) pointing at each other? Well… yeah. About the only difference between the teams, at least as of today, is that Chris Sale is pitching in Atlanta. Beyond that, my gosh the rosters are similar!
We’ve all discussed the Red Sox off-season or lack of an off-season ad nauseam, but let’s start there. How’s that for selling it? Boston made two big(ish) moves. First was trading Chris Sale and ($18 million) to Atlanta for Vaughn Grissom. Second was signing starter Lucas Giolito to a two year deal with a player opt-out.
What’s funny about both of those is that neither has actually changed the composition of the team on the field, at least as of Opening Day 2024. Grissom pulled a groin (his own) and is out for the foreseeable future, while in an ironic twist, the always injured Sale is healthy. The always uninjured Giolito had an arm problem that required an internal brace procedure (basically baby Tommy John surgery) and is out for the season.
The effect of all that for the 2024 Red Sox is: nothing! Sale is gone while Giolito and Grissom are both hurt and not playing. Say hello to the 2023 Red Sox again! This is the same team you said good-bye to (and likely good riddance to) back in October of last year, but nope, they’re back!
OK, OK, it’s not exactly the same team. There are differences. First was the trade of Alex Verdugo to the Yankees for reliever Greg Weissert and minor league pitchers Richard Fitts and Nicholas Judice. As far as the 2024 roster goes that deal simply removed Verdugo. There’s a chance Fitts is up at some point and throwing innings for the major league squad, but that’s far from certain. Mostly this was addition by subtraction and, just so I don’t get angry emails from Mr. and Mrs. Fitts, addition by addition.
Verdugo’s replacement is Tyler O’Neill, the power-hitting extremely jacked and perpetually injured outfielder who was acquired from the Cardinals for reliever Nick Robertson and minor league starter Victor Santos. So Verdugo out and O’Neill in, with some minor leaguers switching apartments as well.
The final move was signing starting pitcher Brayan Bello to a six-year contract with a team option for a seventh season. That sounds like a big deal, and it sooooooort of was, but it’s not nearly as big as perhaps it could have been or maybe should have been. Because he had so much team control remaining, Bello’s new deal will keep him in Boston for just one extra season, and, if the team exercises their option, a second season after that. So what we’re mostly talking about when we talk about the extension is locking in Bello’s salary (and, from the player’s standpoint, guaranteeing it). That’s great for the accountants right now, but this won’t actually make any difference on the field until 2028, at which point I could be dead, or a Pirates fan (is there a difference between those two?).
Of course I’m glossing over some of the smaller moves here, but I don’t expect adding backup to the backup catcher Tyler Heineman to move the needle much when it comes to Boston’s playoff chances. There were reliever moves, such as trading John Schreiber to the Royals for minor leaguer David Sandlin. Sandlin could be good (the excellent guys at Sox Prospects seem to like him quite a bit!) but it seems unlikely he’ll make the majors this season.
Most of the off-season was defined by what didn’t happen, namely going “full throttle.” That’s what team owner Tom Werner said the team would do this off-season at the introductory press conference for new GM/President of Baseball Operations Craig Breslow. Oh yeah, they fired POBP Chaim Bloom and hired Breslow. Forgot to mention that. More on that in a second.
The “full throttle” comment was and is strange in light of the fact that the team did relatively little this off-season. It raises a lot of questions, like, is Werner not in touch with the front office and/or majority owner John Henry like, at all? Did he just burp really loudly and it came out sounding like fuuuullll throttttllllle? Did Henry agree to a big spending blitz in the midst of a green tea bender and then change his mind the next morning?
Whatever the answer, ultimately the team decided, whether through strategy or frugality, not to spend this off-season. Payroll fell for the second year in a row to $162 million or thereabouts. That’s 12th in baseball. Is that bad? I mean, it’s not good.
It’s especially odd in light of where the team is in regard to contention and the fact that they canned Bloom and brought in Breslow. When it comes to contention, the team is very plainly focused on the future. They have three blue chip prospects in shortstop Marcelo Mayer (pronounced: My-er), center fielder Roman Anthony, and catcher Kyle Teel who all project to make the major leagues sometime between now and the end of next season.
That’s a lot of talent and they should make a large impact, but it’s not going to turn the team into a World Series champ on its own. That’s what makes this off-season so strange. Two of the Red Sox four World Series Championships came at similar stages. The 2004 team was the Red Sox front office papering over holes in the roster while building towards the 2007 homegrown team. The 2013 team was the same thing, filling weaknesses in the roster in preparation for what would become the 2018 team. This 2024 team has that kind of potential, but someone needed to fill in the cracks and add a few stars, just as the 2004 team added Curt Schilling and Keith Foulke and the 2013 team added Shane Victorino, Mike Napoli, and Koji Uehara among others.
This team is crying out for at least one more starter and a star outfielder wouldn’t have hurt things either. But none of that is forthcoming, at least at the moment. It’s possible that this team will make a run at it and the front office will make some additions at the deadline that will push them towards a state of more legitimate contention. But that’s a hope not a strategy.
So let’s talk about the front office. Breslow was brought in to replace Bloom after three plus mostly ineffective seasons in the standings. Yes, the 2021 team did make a run to the ALCS, which was fun, but Bloom’s other squads always felt incomplete, like preparation for a future which would never come. Bloom proved good at the moves around the edges, but when it came to making moves at the trade deadline or during the off-season, things were more of a struggle.
That’s what’s so funny about the Breslow hire, though. You’d think that the indecisiveness of Bloom’s tenure would’ve galvanized ownership towards making bold moves. That’s certainly what the whole “full throttle” comment seemed a precursor to. And while dealing Verdugo to the Yankees took guts, that was really it. So far at least, the Breslow era has been nothing if not an extension of the Bloom era. Which makes me wonder whether ownership has shackled both GMs and thus to what extent what we saw from Bloom was really Bloom or was it Bloom with ownership’s handcuffs on, which is also (potentially) what we have now in Breslow?
After all that though, this really isn’t a bad roster. It’s an incomplete roster, but what is here isn’t bad. There is promise, there is some star power, if not enough in my opinion, and there is upside. In short, there are reasons to pay attention and reasons for optimism, at least as I sit here on my couch in late March before Opening Day.
Let’s go down the roster and I’ll leave it to you to decide whether an extra $20 or $30 million would’ve made a difference.
We’ll start with the hitters.
Infield
Triston Casas, Vaughn Grissom (injured), Trevor Story, Rafael Devers, Enmanuel Valdez, Bobby Dalbec
This is a pretty strong group, at least at the plate. Devers will do Devers things, and while a huge breakout is still possible, even without that he’s a well above average hitter. I discussed Casas recently but the short version is I’m expecting big things. Story looks healthy and revitalized. He’s had a lot of success this Spring which might mean something and might mean nothing, but either way he should be able to improve on the wRC+ of 48 (that’s 52 percent below league average) of last season.
Grissom is more of a wild card. He should be able to hit a bit, but we don’t know if he can really play second base every day. At least while he heals (and that question stays unanswered) that job will go to Valdez, who, if he’s anything like the 2023 version of himself, can hit and can’t field. So he should fit in perfectly.
I do think this group is going to be a force at the plate. I’m looking for big seasons from Story and Casas and to a lesser extent Devers. It’s in the field that I have my doubts. The infield defense was bad last season and while that could improve with more Story and a potentially better season from Casas and/or Devers, that feels like wishful thinking. On the whole, though, this is a good group and while they aren’t perfect, they’re not the problem.
Outfield
Jarren Duran, Ceddanne Rafaela, Tyler O’Neill, Wilyer Abreu, Masataka Yoshida, Rob Refsnyder (injured)
I’m surprised Rafaela made the team. He’s reported to be a standout defender in center and my gosh does this team need that, so I get it from that standpoint, even if he struggles to hit. His big problem is over-agressiveness, but it’s something he’s worked on for a while and apparently he’s shown some progress this spring. Does that mean anything? I lean towards ‘no’ or at least ‘let me see it in games that matter.’
The rest of the group is questionable. I like Duran a lot but I’m not sure he’s really the 20 percent above average hitter of last season. Again, show me. That said, at least he’s done it once, which he has over Rafaela.
Will Yoshida hit better? Some people say yes. I don’t think so! I think this is mostly who he is, but maybe he’ll take to DH and it’ll let him focus more on his hitting.
O’Neill intrigues me, but his issue has always been staying healthy. Also producing. That’s been an issue too. Once in his career has O’Neill played more than 100 games in a season, and once in his career has O’Neill put up an OPS above .803. Those two times came in the same season, 2021. That’s the season you hang your hat on. If he stays healthy and hits the Red Sox hit the jackpot. I’m not holding my breath.
Abreu performed really well in his audition last season, putting up an OPS of .862 and playing good enough defense that the Red Sox feel comfortable starting him in right field on the regular. Again, we’ll see, but there’s at least something to be optimistic about here.
Defensively this could be an improvement over last season, due to Rafaela playing most days (presumably) and the addition of O’Neill and Abreu to the roster. That and more of Yoshida at DH. Maybe this won’t be the defensive tirefire it was last season. Here’s hoping!
You can see how there’s upside with each guy here, so it’s easy to get excited about each player, but the reality is usually more grim. We’ll see where things are in May but at least right now, this could be the best outfield in baseball! Or, you know, not.
Catchers
Connor Wong, Reece McGuire
Wong has crushed the ball this spring. That probably means nothing, but it’s fun, I guess. With prospect Kyle Teel starting the season in Double-A this platoon feels like an audition to see which guy gets to back Teel up. I’m guessing it’ll be Wong, who is somehow under team control through 2028. Regardless, this duo is likely to be roughly replacement level, so: not good. The sooner Teel arrives the better.
Bench
It’s a bench. It’s not good. If it was good it wouldn’t be the bench.
Starting Rotation
1 Brayan Bello
2 Nick Pivetta
3 Kutter Crawford
4 Garrett Whitlock
5 Tanner Houck
This is where you’d like to plug in a top guy. But we can’t. Or at least we aren’t. So get over it, I guess. Like the rest of the roster though, it’s not bad, at least the group above isn’t. If Bello can figure out how to strike out some more dudes, he can be a top starter. If not, well, he’s a three or something like that. Which is fine.
After that, every single guy would be better off coming out of the bullpen. But since the team didn’t add any starters (bring in Giolito and send out Sale) and with Giolito’s injury is somehow down a starter compared to last season, well, this is it. Like the guys above, each guy could have a good season. And it’s not unreasonable to expect that! When we look back on the season I’m guessing one of these guys, be it Crawford, Pivetta, Whitlock, or Houck had a standout season. But the Red Sox don’t need one guy to be good, they need four guys to be good.
And oh yeah, not to get hurt. Can’t get hurt either. Because after these five there’s pretty much nothing. This is flying without a parachute right here. Yes they could move newly acquired Chase Anderson or Josh Winckowski to the rotation, and let’s dispense with the maybes, they WILL do exactly that. But there’s a reason those guys aren’t in the rotation now, and remember, we’re talking about this rotation, the one with Whitlock, Houck, and Pivetta.
Beyond those two, there’s Cooper Criswell, or is it Chris Cooperwell? I don’t know, but I bet I’ll find out at some point this season. Richard Fitts is another option, but he’s a prospect who hasn’t pitched above Double-A as a 23 year old. So. Yeah.
Bullpen
Kenley Jansen, Chris Martin, Josh Winckowski, Isaiah Campbell, Joely Rodriguez, Greg Weissert, Justin Slaten, Chase Anderson
Aside from the top three, this is an entirely different group than last season. Are they good? Maybe! Maybe not! I won’t pretend to know. We’ll all get to know the new relievers as the season goes on, but the bet here is that at least 40 percent of these guys disappear into the ether before the season hits July. How’s that for optimism?
Manager
I was gonna go straight to the summary but it occurs to me that this really could be Alex Cora’s last year managing the Red Sox. And that would be a shame. Or would it? I don’t know. Cora distinguished himself in 2018, pushing every button perfectly. Since then it’s been much more of a mixed bag. While the front office has taken the fall for the team’s mediocre performance over the past five seasons, Cora has been here for it the whole time.
Is he at fault? Well, no, but yeah, kinda? I don’t think there was some magic group of moves he could’ve made that would have turned the 2023 Red Sox into a playoff team. But he was still managing when the team went like 2-200 over the last month plus of the season. He was still managing when the team couldn’t field or pitch or run the bases. I think he’s a fine manager but I do think if he leaves it won’t be a huge loss. I like the guy, but the sad truth for every manager is that, if the right people are picking the new manager, just about every manager is replaceable.
As far as 2024 goes, having Cora in the fold is probably a good thing. But as we’ve seen over the past half decade or so, it’s nowhere near enough to make the team a contender on its own.
Summary and Final Thoughts
I think it’s fair to say while I’m less optimistic about the team as a whole, I’m optimistic about a lot of the roster. That might have come through in the ridiculous number of paragraphs up above, or it might make no sense because it’s late at night and I have to get this done before going to sleep and I’m half asleep right now as I type this. Either way though, I do think there’s a lot to be excited about. Casas could have a huge, superstar-spawning season. Heck, so could Devers. Story, finally healthy, could actually do the thing be the dude. Rafaela and Abreu could cement their spots on the roster for years to come.
Up in the offices, Breslow could start to implement some of the creative winning strategies he was brought here for. Out on the farm, Teel, Mayer, and Roman Anthony could all push for callups to Boston before the year is out. There’s a lot to pay attention to and a lot to look forward to, even if the final standings of the 2024 season maybe isn’t one of them.
So we come to the part where I have to call my shot, and…. ARG! I want to be Mr. Positive Guy, but I just don’t see it with the starting rotation. And if I’m honest and the injuries hit hard and in the wrong places, this whole thing could go sideways in a hurry. But, if they somehow manage to avoid the injury bug entirely (ha ha) they could win 90 games. So I’ll kinda split the difference and say 75 wins.
I hope I’m wrong. Either way it should be a fun season. I hope we can follow it together. I look forward to that.
Thanks for reading, thanks for subscribing, and Go Sox!