Sox win, Devers rakes, and the law firm of Whitlock & Hill

Happiness is an afternoon Red Sox win

There really is nothing like a Red Sox win early in the day. For the rest of the afternoon and evening I’m on a happy cloud. Night wins are fun too, but usually I just go to bed afterwards, so it’s not something I can carry around all day. Yesterday though… All. Day. Long. So what happened was the Red Sox finally scored some runs and won a baseball game yesterday. It was fun!

A quick point here. I know I’ve done recaps of the games this year, but generally that’s not the plan, at least for now. For important games, absolutely, you’ll get recaps here. And sometimes because something stood out to me that was worth discussing, but for the most part, just to set your expectations, this is going to be a newsletter that looks at the Red Sox from a 1000 feet up. That was always the conceit here anyway, that I’m an outsider (thus the name) and I’ll report on the team through that lens.

Which brings me to the hello before the rest of the stuff: Hello! I’m Matt Kory and you’ve accidentally stumbled upon Sox Outsider, my Red Sox newsletter. Thanks for reading! You might know me from my work at The Athletic, FanGraphs, Vice Sports, Sports on Earth, or any number of other spots. Now I’m here at Sox Outsider, and since you’re reading these words, you are too. If you haven’t already, please subscribe! It’s free. Just click this little button. Thank you.

We’re just five games through the Red Sox season which isn’t much of a sample size, but there are a few things that stand out to me.

Rafael Devers - I’ve been joking on Twitter that Devers is going to win the AL MVP this season. It’s clearly a hilarious joke, so I’m absolutely going to continue doing it, even though if you forced me to take truth serum I’d concede he’s probably not the favorite. That admitted, he sure is off to an MVP-level start. He’s leading the Red Sox in hitting (damning with faint praise, but still) with an OPS over 1.000, and even though it’s early, he’s still doing Devers things with the bat.

courtesy Baseball Savant

He’s hitting the ball hard, he’s chasing pitches outside the zone, he’s running hard but not fast, and did I mention he’s hitting the ball hard? Well, he is. He’s hitting the ball really hard. The funny thing is, and I mentioned this yesterday, but it doesn’t feel like he’s hit reached Peak Devers yet. There is more there there is what I’m saying.

But what has really impressed me is what Devers has done on defense. He’s always had good if not great range, but he’s reaching balls he hadn’t before. He’s posting above average numbers on StatCast for the first time. And (knock on wood right now!) he’s not making mistakes on the easy stuff. He’s making the hard plays, the plays we always knew he had the capacity to make, but he’s not messing up the easy stuff which, when he did that, offset the gains he made by making the hard plays. The result is, so far in a really small sample, Devers has actually been a good, slightly above average defensive third baseman by Outs Above Average.

Combined with his bat, this is the kind of guy you want to build around. The other guy, it was more questionable. He might be a first baseman or a maybe even a DH, but this guy is a starting third baseman who can absolutely crush it with the bat. Take note, AL pitchers. Take note, AL MVP voters. Take note, John Henry’s checkbook.

Walks - The Red Sox haven’t yet hit their stride at the plate. That much has been clear. One big reason why is they haven’t been walking. The Red Sox are currently 24th in baseball in walks taken, tied with the rebuilding Washington Nationals, who, I’m just guessing here, have received 95 percent of their walks courtesy of Juan Soto.

It should come as no surprise that the team is second to last in baseball in on-base percentage at .259, just a hair ahead of the Diamondbacks. Walks are great for creating offense, but walking is mostly a symptom of the issue. When teams walk it means they aren’t chasing pitches outside the zone. That means they’re making opposing pitchers work harder. It means they’re forcing opposing pitchers to throw more pitches. That means they’re getting into the opposing bullpens sooner. It means they’re making their opponent’s pitching staff work harder. And it means they’re putting more guys on base for the rest of their lineup to drive in.

This Red Sox squad isn’t likely to lead the league in on-base. They’re not that kind of offense. But second to last in baseball is pretty bad, with the enormous caveat that the season just started like five minute ago. There are a few guys who should be contributing more in this category, but it’s just easier to list the few guys who are actually getting on base. So here’s that list:

Rafael Devers
Alex Verdugo
Xander Bogaerts

That’s it. Everyone else is under .300, which is quite bad, but again, the season just started as I was beginning this paragraph.

Expect some more selectivity from this lineup going forward.

Hill & Whitlock - It sounds like an old timey law firm, something just down the dirt street from the saloon. Good one, Matt. Yeah. Moving on.

The plan, at least for now, seems to be to use Rich Hill and his 42-year-old self for roughly two times through the order and then hand the ball to Garrett Whitlock and let him go to town. That plan worked pretty darn well yesterday as Hill threw 4.1 innings before facing Detroit lead-off hitter Robbie Grossman for the third time. Grossman walked and that was it for Hill. Hirokazu Sawamura finished off the Tigers in the fifth, and Whitlock took over after that, firing the final four shutout frames to lock down the Red Sox win.

Hill is fun to watch pitch. He’s all guile at this point, and that’s always intriguing because it’s the closest a major league pitcher comes to being me. Or you. When you see a pitcher just hanging on like Hill is, it makes you appreciate the incredible balancing act anyone must manage in order to pitch at the major league level.

Whitlock is a different story entirely. He’s blowing hitters away with mid-90s gas, then he’s throwing a changeup that drops off the table. As aesthetically pleasing as the off-speed pitches are, it’s the fastball that sets everything else up for Whitlock at this point. Yesterday he threw it a ton, sprinkling in sliders and, later, changeups, to keep Tiger hitters off their balance.

It is a joy to see Whitlock pitch, and when compared to Hill, it’s a study in contrasts that I suspect works to the Red Sox advantage. Perhaps this is why the Tigers had so much trouble with both pitchers yesterday, but regardless of how well it’s working now, I can’t help but think this is a step for Whitlock between where he was in the bullpen and a spot in the rotation. The Red Sox have a few capable starters at the back end in Hill and Wacha and perhaps that will hold for the whole year, but don’t be surprised if by the end of the season the Red Sox rotation includes Whitlock.

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