Sox Notes: Travel, Devers, PLAYOFFS?!?!

Let's talk about a Devers extension, a Red Sox rebuild, the value of making the playoffs, and why you haven't heard from me in a bit

Photo by Lauren Thimmesch on Unsplash

I’ve been traveling back east to visit family. It’s a tradition that started when I moved west about 10 years ago or so. Typically we head back to Pennsylvania and spend some time outside Philly, then head south to the DC area where my family lives. This trip was a little different as I got to head up to western Massachusetts and southern Vermont as well, places I love but haven’t visited in a long time.

That’s all to say I’m sorry it’s been dark here. I’ve been following the Red Sox as they try to right their 2022 ship, of course, but not with the closeness that writing a newsletter requires. So instead, let’s do some quick Sox Notes.

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[Best Jim Mora voice] PLAYOFFS?!?!?

The Red Sox are still in last place in the AL East. Yesterday’s loss in Pittsburgh pushed them back below .500 again, keeping them five games and four teams behind the final Wild Card spot. That’s a heavy lift. FanGraphs gives the Sox a 10 percent chance to make the post-season, and frankly that seems high to me.

There are a few signs of hope though. Yes Chris Sale is out for the year after his third major injury and now James Paxton looks like he may join Sale on that list after experiencing a lat strain during his rehab start. But Enrique Hernandez is back. Michael Wacha is back. So is Rich Hill. So is Rob Refsnyder. That’s not exactly cause for a celebration, but it’s not nothing either.

A bit of health goes a long way and this team has lacked both the health and the going a long way thing for a while now. There’s no denying the roster needs a lot of help and if they squeak into the playoffs it probably won’t be a long stay. But then again you never know, right? There were points in time last season when I was certain that A) they wouldn’t make the playoffs, and B) if they did, they’d be out before you could re-read this sentence. And yet, somehow, some way, some thing happened and they beat not only the Yankees, but the Rays as well! And now, thanks to all that, the 2021 Red Sox will be remembered for those post-season successes, and not for variously sucking in August or whatever.

Here’s hoping this 2022 squad gets the same chance.

Re-Sign Devers?

This, to me, the more that I think about it, is the central question of the upcoming off-season. And that kinda sells it short, too. I mean, of course it’s the central question. Duh. Double duh! Let me explain.

Look at this roster without Devers. It’s not exactly the 2020 Pirates, but it’s not one you’d expect to compete in the AL East in 2023. They’d need a third baseman, for one thing. But not only that, they’ll probably need an entire left side of the infield, two thirds of an outfield, most of a rotation, and a good portion of bullpen as well.

Normally this is where you’d start listing the prospects you hope could step in and fill some of those holes, but the Red Sox, though they have a decent system, don’t have a lot in the way of star power headed to Boston. Not immediately, anyway. Triston Casas, the power-hitting first baseman who should take over the position next season (if not sooner), is about it when it comes to position players. There are some pitching prospects too. Brayan Bello could potentially make some noise in the rotation. The kid has impressive stuff.

But that’s about it. They’d not only need to fill the other positions from outside the organization, but they’d need to do it with players who have a reasonable upside to them. This wouldn’t be like grabbing a Refsnyder here or a Christian Arroyo there. Both fine players with roles to play, but that’s not the kind of signing that’s going to get it done.

There are lots of ways to improve the roster and Chaim Bloom will think of about 99 percent of them, but it’s going to be a lot of work, a ton of turnover, to get the roster into the kind of shape where the team can compete in 2023 without Rafael Devers.

But, with Devers much of that changes. Not so much in the specific holes on the roster (though obviously the third base hole closes quickly) but in the type of players the team can look to acquire. All of a sudden they can be more circumspect about their acquisitions. That’s not to say they won’t need upside - of course they will - but they can be more targeted about where and how they bring in that upside. And maybe most importantly, they won’t need as much of it.

That’s why signing Devers is important. But if they can’t do it, it’s not just that the roster suffers. It’s what it says about where the organization is, and what they’re going to do about it.

Without Devers, they could decide 2023 isn’t going to work and punt on it. That could realistically happen. Who ever they get for Devers (presumably they’d deal him if he won’t re-sign, in a sort of super fun re-do of the Mookie Betts deal) isn’t likely going to step right in and make an impact, and as we’ve discussed, neither are more than a few prospects in the Sox system. If they’re going to rebuild from the inside, that's going to take more than an off-season to accomplish.

The question I keep coming back to is this: why would Devers want to sign in Boston? If he bets on himself and doesn’t sign an extension, he probably gets traded this off-season. But in one year he’ll be a free agent and can sign a huge deal with whomever he wants. If the Red Sox are willing to pay him that deal a year early? Sure. Sign it. But if not, why wouldn’t he wait? And if he waits, why wouldn’t the Red Sox trade him?

It’s not the kind of thought process I enjoy right before bedtime.

Schedule Time

After taking two of three in Pittsburgh, the Red Sox get three in Baltimore, and six at home against Toronto and Tampa. That’s nine straight against Wild Card competitors directly in front of them. If the Sox don’t win something like six of nine or better (and let’s be honest, they really need to do better), well, that might be the end of the competitive portion of this team’s schedule.

A lot is riding on this next week. Or, if you’ve already written this team off, nothing is riding on it!

Enjoy the games. I’ll be back at some point soon. Thanks for reading, everybody.