Sox Notes: Monty, Lucas, and something irrelevant but funny (and no, I'm not talking about the Red Sox franchise as a whole)
Notes on Spring Training, Jordan Montgomery, Lucas Giolito, and Jason Alexander who is totally a pitcher and will not at any time in the 2024 season, air grievances.
I just love Spring Training. I know it’s a glorified practice and an unglorified cash-grab, but I can look past all that and even embrace it. The best part is, as a fan and a writer, there’s no pressure. The team is playing baseball, so there is baseball, but there is no losing. Some players look good and that’s great! Some don’t, but who cares because it’s just Spring Training! That all makes it easy to brush off the bad and embrace the good. Also it’s Florida and/or Arizona in the spring. Even seeing warm weather on TV is good for the soul after a long Northeastern (or in my case, Pacific Northwestern) winter.
There is also the chance to see players you’ve read about but never watched before. The other day I turned on the game and there was Roman Anthony, Sox Prospects’ number one Red Sox prospect, standing in right field. Off the page and onto the screen! He went 0-for-1 with a strikeout and two walks, which (see above) is great! He’s basically a Hall of Famer. Looking forward to his inevitable and likely multiple MVP seasons in Boston.
As I type this, the Red Sox are playing the desiccated husk of the Nationals. Ceddanne Rafaela, which I totally just spelled correctly on the first try, is in center field. He’s got a line drive single to right field and a walk so he’s basically a Hall of Famer too.
I’ve managed to attend Spring Training a few times and each time it’s been wonderful. I’ve had a little too much beer, a little too much sun, and not nearly enough (though certainly a lot of) baseball. Ten out of 10, would recommend if you have the opportunity.
As for this Red Sox team, well, here’s some notes.
Jordan Montgomery
Remember all the way back just before the 2018 season the Red Sox signed JD Martinez. Martinez was a big bat back then (and maybe still is) and the Red Sox had a need for a big bat. So much so that Boston was the obvious fit all off-season. So much so that Dave Dombrowski didn’t run out in front of himself to make the deal. That Dombrowski showed restraint is how obvious it was that Martinez was coming to Boston. Finally on February 26 and to nobody’s surprise whatsoever, it happened. The two sides reached a deal.
I’m not saying the Red Sox are going to sign Jordan Montgomery this week, but I am saying it was an obvious fit six months ago for both team and player and it’s still an obvious fit for both team and player. The sticking point has been, of course, money and years, so, you know, everything. But with Spring Training in full swing, you’d think both sides would be eager for some sort of deal to happen.
Montgomery isn’t an ace. He’s not even really a number two. But he is a good starter who has been healthy and effective for the last three seasons. Last year was his best season in the majors, but given his strikeout percentage which has been declining every season since 2019 (yikes!) and a number of his other peripheral stats, I don’t think it’s fair to expect four wins and an ERA 25 percent below league average.
That doesn’t mean I wouldn’t like him on the Red Sox, nor does it mean I wouldn’t give him a three year deal. I do understand though why nobody has given him a five or six year deal at $25-30 million per season. That, despite his excellent 2023 season, has likely been the sticking point. But now that we’re getting down to it, and with reports that the Red Sox have been in touch with Montgomery’s camp (yes, he has his own camp!), I wouldn’t be shocked if a deal happened in the near future.
Adding Montgomery doesn’t, contrary to some reports, make the Red Sox any kind of contender in 2024, at least over and above what the are currently. But it does make them better, and that’s the point, isn’t it? Also, having Montgomery past the ‘24 season wouldn’t likely be a bad thing for a club with no discernible starting pitching pipeline. We got Clay Buchholz in 2007 and Brayan Bello in 2023, so by my calculations we can expect the next usable Red Sox starting pitcher to emerge in 2039. To be clear, that is not an endorsement for giving Montgomery a 16 year contract.
Jason Alexander!
The Red Sox did sign a pitcher this week and it was and is Jason Alexander. He got a minor league contract. That’s Jason Alexander the pitcher formerly of the Angels, Brewers, and Marlins, and not, you know, this guy.
I was disappointed too.
Starting-Pitchers-Currently-On-The-Red-Sox News Now
Lucas Giolito seems like a swell guy. (I’m leaning hard into old man verbiage here.) That said, he gave up 41 homers last year. Lance Lynn somehow gave up 44 but nobody else broke the fabled 40 homer barrier in 2023. Giolito should give up fewer homers in 2024, something the Red Sox are clearly banking about $40+ million on, for a few reasons. Firstly, it’s hard to give up that many homers. Typically giving that many homers up means you’re not very good and somewhere before you reach 40 teams will stop giving you opportunities to give up more homers.
Beyond that though, Giolito’s 2023 season was an odd one. He pitched for three different teams after being traded to Anaheim at the deadline and then released shortly thereafter in a cost-cutting move. He also went through a divorce, which I can’t fathom helped him on the mound. None of that is happening in 2024, presumably. So a bit more stability should be helpful.
Back on the field, Giolito’s fly ball rate was way up last season. It was a career high of 45.7 percent. He was also giving up a lot of pulled contact, which, when combined with excessive fly balls, is a recipe for 40+ homers, which happened. I wish I could say he has a new pitch that should counteract all that bad contact he gave up last season, or he’s doing something different, but if so it hasn’t been reported. He did pitch two scoreless innings a few days back, so that’s a good start.
I mention this all because, barring someone inventing a time machine and going all the way back to the year 2019 (and, if you’re a Red Sox fan and you’re going to invent a time machine, I’d politely suggest going a year beyond that), Giolito is going to spend more time on the edges of success. A slight change in the numbers will be the difference between a palatable season and one that makes his contract look like a massive mistake.
Thanks for reading.
I really do miss Dave Dombrowski's ability to see an obvious need and fill it in the most obvious way. Sure, it was as much FSG's resources as his particular acumen, but it was reassuring to see him do that rather than get really clever about winning a three-way trade.