Sox Notes!

Trevor Story, Franchy Cordero, Garrett Whitlock! Devers? Maybe more! I don't remember!

Five in a row. Six out of seven, and eight out of 10. Three consecutive series wins. Your Boston Red Sox are officially out of the doldrums.

I, unfortunately, am not out of the doldrums though, because I have covid, which is why you haven’t heard from me. I’m one of the fortunate ones as I’ve been vaccinated and boosted, but it’s still hitting me rather hard. Mostly I’ve just been really tired. Simple things like going up the stairs can totally wind me. After thinking it over, I’m going to have to recommend you do not get this virus.

I’ve tried to write over this past week, but every time I do, I’m not able to finish. It sounds ridiculous to say I get winded from writing, but, well, that’s the case. I wouldn’t say I’m a stream-of-consciousness writer (though maybe you would), but I do need to do it in one sitting. If I stop and try to come back to it, it’s just a mess. So that’s what’s up here. I’m sorry I haven’t been writing. As soon as I’m healthy, I’ll leap back on the horse. That horse is going to have to watch out because of the fast leaping. Look out, horse! There’s leaping in your future.

The Red Sox have been a lot of fun to write about recently too, so I’ve missed that. And with that in mind, let’s hit up some notes really quick. I don’t think I can do my usual length, but I’ll give it a go. Thanks, as always, for reading and for subscribing. I really do appreciate it. Y’all are the best.

Let’s do some notes!

Franchy!

There’s nothing like a walk-off to really get the blood pumping. If Franchy’s 10th inning grand slam did nothing else, it did that. Besides giving the Red Sox their first extra-inning win of the season (it’s May, for crying out loud!), it puts a somewhat forgotten character on the front burner for a moment. So while he’s there, let’s take a look!

Even with the homer, Franchy’s slash line isn’t anything to look at. His .709 OPS is right about league average, which is pretty meh. However, considering what Boston is getting from first base and the outfield corners, league average starts to sound pretty appealing.

Franchy also brings a few items to the table that the Red Sox just aren’t getting elsewhere. Specifically speed and - get this! - walks. Franchy is walking in 11 percent of his plate appearances, which, if you discount Rob Refsnyder’s six PAs, and I sure do, leads the team. So a fast guy with a league average slash line is a cold drink of water when you get down to the desert that is the back of the Red Sox lineup.

The other thing about Franchy is [looks around conspiratorially] there’s always the possibility, small though it might be, of a breakout. I know, I know, don’t say the B word, but scouts and team executives have long drooled over Franchy’s tools. And you can see why. Dude is fast, super strong, and when he makes contact, he hits the poop out of the ball. What I’m saying is, when Franchy hits it, the ball ceases to have poop.

The issue has always been his hit tool. Can he make enough contact and enough good contact for that other stuff fun to matter? I wouldn’t say we’re at that point yet. Remember, he’s only been league average since coming up from Triple-A this season, and even then we’re only talking about 18 games and 59 PAs. But, while a breakout remains unlikely, you do have to consider the possibility, one which isn’t present with Jackie Bradley, at least. (Your mileage with Bobby Dalbec and Alex Verdugo may vary.)

The Red Sox are getting very little production from their outfield corners. JBJ has had some big hits and he’s played excellent defense, but a month and a half into the season, the overall package is more or less what we thought it would be, which is to say bad. I’ve written about Alex Verdugo recently, and nothing has really changed on that front. The upshot is he’s hit the ball well, but he’s been pretty unlucky in terms of what has happened after that. So there is probably as much of an opening for Franchy to push himself into some more playing time as there has ever been. We’ll see if he can do that. There are still real questions about his abilities, but yesterday’s well-timed granny was a good start.

Trevor Story!

In retrospect it’s nuts I started this article with Franchy and not Story. I blame my covid-melted brain. Or perhaps I couldn’t see through the smoke because Story has been on fire, torching opposing pitchers and waking Red Sox fans up to the possibility that, hey, he’s actually a pretty damn good hitter. Over the last seven games, he has hit six of his seven homers, with an OPS of 1.572. But you can go back further than that. On May 10th, Story had two hits against the Braves. Since that day, Story has an OPS of 1.173. In fact, the game before that, Story went 0-for-4 which dropped his OPS to a season low (if you don’t count the first two games of the season) of .545. Since then he’s raised it 203 points.

Story won’t stay this hot, but he’s already brought his season line up well past league average. It’s nice to get some good production from second base, isn’t it? Heck, it’s nice to have someone who isn’t Rafael Devers, Xander Bogaerts, and J.D. Martinez get a few hits.

Garrett Whitlock

It can’t all be good news, I guess.

Whitlock is now a permanent member of the Red Sox rotation, which for the record, I think is great news. Whitlock is a big dude with four legit pitches (if you count both fastballs, which, why not?), and big dudes with four legit pitches should be in the rotation. Or at least that’s how the thinking always used to go.

With starters throwing fewer and fewer innings per start and teams using some relievers in multi-inning roles, it’s possible the old ideas are getting flipped on their head. There is an argument that, with this Red Sox roster, Whitlock, who can throw two or even three targeted innings in a relief appearance, provides more value in a bullpen role.

That might be true of there were another starter ready to step into the rotation and be as good as Whitlock can be, but that’s not the case right now. Perhaps later when Chris Sale and/or James Paxton returns from injury the internal calculous will change. And with Whitlock’s innings limit probably somewhere around 160 or so (he threw 81 last year counting the post-season), the team may move him back to the pen later in the season. It wouldn’t shock me to see him pitching out of the pen down the stretch and/or into the post-season, should this team get that far.

But even if that happens, Whitlock should be a starter next season and going forward. He’s too good not to be used in that role. And if you start wondering which role is really more valuable, take a look at free agent prices. How much does a top starter go for on the free agent market? Now compare that to a top reliever. Teams are tipping their hands there. They pay starters a lot more because starters are still a lot more valuable. Maybe that will change sometime in the future, but if so I think it’s still a long way off.

Rafael Devers: AL MVP

On pace.

By WAR, Rafael Devers is your fourth best player in the AL. He’s sixth in wRC+ and fourth in slugging percentage. I mean, Mike Trout is pretty good, but is he Rafael Devers good? (Don’t answer that.)

I started saying this over Twitter mostly because I thought it was kinda funny to be so strident about something which I obviously couldn’t possibly know about. But I’m not kidding when I say it’s very possible. Devers is really good, he’s near the top of the league already, and April is traditionally his worst month. So sure, let’s lean hard into this. Why not?

Thanks for reading.