Should The Red Sox Sign Freddie Freeman?

Freddie Freeman is one of the top free agents on the market. MLB Trade Rumors ranked him third best free agent behind Carlos Correa and Corey Seager. It was assumed by me and others (two of the three predictors at MLBTR, for example) that Freeman would return to the Braves after testing free agency. That kept not happening and it kept not happening and, again, it kept not happening. Then, Monday, that door slammed shut when the Braves traded for A’s first baseman Matt Olson. Then, Tuesday, the Braves signed Matt Olson to an eight year contract extension. The upshot of all that is Freddie Freeman isn’t going to re-sign with Atlanta. So fine. Whatever. Except. Then this happened.

Jon Heyman @JonHeyman

Red Sox have joined the Freddie Freeman sweepstakes as things get more interesting. Teams known to be in now: the Dodgers plus 4 from AL East: Yankees, Rays and Jays, too

OK. Weird. The Red Sox already have Bobby Dalbec and, if you don’t believe in him, fine, they also have top 20 prospect Triston Casas who plays first base and is likely to make his major league debut this season. So perhaps this is just an agent angling to add another big fish to his client’s list of prospective teams in order to drive up the price. Let’s assume that.

Then, a couple hours later, this:

Jon Heyman @JonHeyman

While Dodgers on the surface seem a very attractive option, hearing not to assume they are favored. Some AL East teams (and others?) — including Red Sox — very much in play. https://t.co/raiyoZ8Bx5

Jon Heyman @JonHeyman

Red Sox have joined the Freddie Freeman sweepstakes as things get more interesting. Teams known to be in now: the Dodgers plus 4 from AL East: Yankees, Rays and Jays, too

Wow. Okay. This is officially a thing now. So why not meet this thing head-on? I mean, that’s why you have a newsletter, right?

Let’s get right to that, after I politely ask you to subscribe to this, the Sox Outsider newsletter. It’s free and it’s written by me, Matt Kory, formerly of The Athletic, FanGraphs, Baseball Prospectus, and a number of other reputable sites. So that’s two things in its favor. Or, one, at least. We’ll be covering the Red Sox all season long, so subscribe please. Thanks for reading.

We’ll start with Freddie Freeman himself. He’s a very good player! He’s a first base only guy, though you could move him to DH if you wanted as he aged. Finding a spot for him wouldn’t be a problem is the point. Teams do like to have the DH spot open to rotate other players through, but that’s not a major issue. You could do a lot worse than have Freddie Freeman as the DH a few years down the line.

Freeman will play this 2022 season as a 32 year old. That’s not extremely old by any means, but if you’re giving him a multi-year deal, you’re buying his mid-30s, and if you’re giving him a long term multi-year deal, you’re buying his late 30s. Again, maybe not a huge problem depending on how you view these things, but something to be aware of, if nothing else.

Freeman is an elite hitter. He’s incredibly good at getting on base (.384 career OBP), and makes a lot of hard contact. He also doesn’t strikeout very much, just a bit higher than his walk rate. That’s very good! He’s not a massive home run hitter, having hit more than 25 homers four times in his 12 seasons, but he can mash one from time to time. And even that isn’t completely fair as that counts two seasons that probably shouldn’t be counted, as one was 24 plate appearances as a 20-year-old back in 2010, and the other is the pandemic year when he was on pace to surpass 30 homers had the season been 162 games, but it was only 60 games long. He also hits a ton of doubles, having lead the league twice. The slugging percentage is .509 for his career, so he’s got some pop.

Another feather in his cap is Baseball Prospectus’ PECOTA projections. BP uses PECOTA to take a guess at how a player will age over the next 10 seasons. You might expect a player of Freeman’s age to slowly disappear over that timeframe, but in this case at least, you’d be wrong. PECOTA projects Freeman to be worth 42 WARP (BP’s version of WAR) over the next decade, starting in 2022. That’s 4.2 wins a season. That’s quite good! And more to the point, it’s incredibly consistent! Over that time period, PECOTA guesses Freeman will go from 4.7 WARP in 2022, to 3.6 WARP in 2031, when he would be 41 years old! I’m not sure I’m buying it, but that’s an impressive projection.

Defensively? That’s a bit more of a question mark. He’s a first baseman coming off an MVP and a World Series win, so I’m sure he’s perfectly fine, but the defensive metrics hate him. BP thinks he’s a butcher over there, and FanGraphs must’ve had a puppy he kicked. So there’s that. I watched the playoffs last season but I can’t recall anything about his defense that stood out to me in either direction, so so much for the eye test.

So that’s Freddie Freeman. A very good hitting first baseman who is seemingly improving as he ages and who projects to continue to play very well through his 30s. That’s a very desirable player! So of course the Red Sox should want him. That makes sense!

Matthew Kory @mattymatty2000

If the Red Sox are actually interested in Freddie Freeman... well, I don't get it. He's a great player, but they're kinda already set at first base and if you have ~$150M in your pocket you're dying to get rid of, I can think of several other positions to better spend it on

It does feel like an odd fit though, to me at least. First base isn’t the place I’d look to make a big addition. An outfielder would be nice, someone who wasn’t the worst hitter in baseball last season (sorry JBJ!). They could use a long term answer at second base, or at least a short term answer that doesn’t include waiting for Christian Arroyo, who I like, to get healthy again. And, while I’ve become attached to Christian Vazquez, he might be nearing the end of his time in Boston and there isn’t anything in the pipeline to replace him. There’s also the matter of extending Rafael Devers and potentially re-upping Xander Bogaerts as well, neither of which will be cheap.

There’s also the matter of Triston Casas. Casas was a first round pick of the Red Sox out of high school in 2018. He’s developed into the team’s top prospect according to Sox Prospects, and the team’s second best prospect behind Marcelo Mayer according to just about everyone else. Either way, he’s a really good prospect who was ranked in the top 20 in the game by FanGraphs and Baseball America. There’s a real shot Casas could make his major league debut this season and play first in Fenway for the next six (or more!) seasons.

Normally I wouldn’t bring Casas up in such a discussion. He’s a highly ranked prospect and I’m excited about him, but he’s not Freddie Freeman. And, like all prospects, there’s a chance he’s not much of a major leaguer either. FG and BA have been wrong about prospects before and God knows I have as well. I think Casas is going to be great, but if you have the chance to get Freddie Freeman, well, that’s better. Planning for prospects will burn you. Put the best team on the field you can and when the prospects show up, if there isn’t room, well, that’s a great problem to have.

So it’s not even Casas. They could work around that, or they could move Casas for something else. Lots of options there.

The thing that makes me question this whole Freeman thing is the fit. Yes neither Casas nor Dalbec is the equal of Freeman, certainly right now and likely ever, but they are both players who can fill the position adequately, and hopefully for years to come. The Red Sox need a lot more than a first baseman. They need a second baseman. They need another outfielder. They need a long term answer at catcher. Another very good starting pitcher wouldn’t hurt either.

These are all positions where it makes more sense to spend money on. Now, yes, there might not be guys available at all those positions, but there are still a few who fit the team’s needs far better than Freeman. Kyle Schwarber and Nick Castellanos are two such players, outfielders who bring big bats and fit fine in left at Fenway. They could both convert to DH next season if JD Martinez departs. Kris Bryant could play all the infield or outfield corners and this team LOVES positional flexibility. Trevor Story doesn’t want to play second base, but he *could* play second base.

It’s not a long list, but spring training has already started! Most players have signed already. It feels odd that the team all of a sudden has $150+ million in their pocket. Where was this when free agency started? And if you have this money, how about giving it to Rafael Devers! Give it to Xander Bogaerts!

I fully expect this is much ado about nothing, a feign by agents to drive up value or a sleepy late night phone call by a Red Sox executive fulfilling a mandate to “check in” on every free agent remaining that was leaked. Soon enough we’ll all wake up to news that Freeman has signed with the Blue Jays or Dodgers or… I dunno, the Padres. They’re about due to sign another first baseman to a silly contract.

I will finish with this though. At the start of the off-season I outright dismissed it. It was silly and would never happen, I thought. I still think that, but I will admit to at least finding it worth thinking over. It’s not the worst idea ever. It’s not five years for Pablo Sandoval or seven for Carl Crawford. It’s interesting. I’ll give it that.