Red Sox Rumors: Ha ha just kidding there aren't any

On the Red Sox relative inactivity, the run on starting pitchers, scant Kyle Schwarber rumors, and what Boston can do about all of it.

Marcus Semien: Not coming to Boston unless it’s in a Rangers uniform

Maybe the Red Sox are in the eye of the storm. It sure feels that way. The free agency winds are whipping around them, with star players flying all about and dollar bills blowing in every direction, turning the MLB off-season into one of those money blowing machines. But despite the free agent storm raging out the window, the offices at Fenway Park are calm, quiet even.

What does it all mean? What are the Red Sox doing? Should we send someone over to wake them up? Let’s talk about it! Welcome to Sox Outsider! I’m Matthew Kory. I’ve written at The Athletic, FanGraphs, Vice Sports, and a billion other (mostly) impressive outlets, and now I’m writing here, all about the Red Sox. If you haven’t already, please subscribe! It’s fun, free, and also free and fun. Just press this button:

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It’s demoralizing when seemingly every team is grabbing star players left and right. But unless you’re the Mets or Rangers, that’s actually not what is happening. It just feels like it. Like the Red Sox, most teams have actually been pretty quiet, at least on the free agent market. The AL East, to pick a division at random, has seen the Blue Jays grab Kevin Gausman, but they also lost Marcus Semien to the Rangers and Robbie Ray to the Mariners. The Yankees have managed to do even less than Boston’s nothing. The Rays signed a reliever, made a few minor trades (probably picking up a few Hall of Famers in the process), and signed Wander Franco to a massive contract extension, but predictably they haven’t jumped into the free agent waters much, either. And the Orioles? Come on, we both know the answer to this one without looking it up.

So the Red Sox aren’t exactly the only one biding their time here. The other point about this is that… how do I put this nicely? The season doesn’t start today! The imminent expiration of the CBA complicates things, but it’s reasonable to suggest that even with a long work stoppage, there would be some time built into the schedule before the 2022 season starts to make trades and sign free agents, should there be any left over. Which is to say, even in the worst case scenario, there will be time to add to the roster further. The team you see right now on paper is not the team the Red Sox will start the season with in April, so we shouldn’t act like it is even if we do have our very own Twitter account.

I’ve mentioned the starting pitching depth in the organization before, and it has improved significantly over the previous few seasons, but it’s not to the point where they could let, say, Max Scherzer walk without worrying too much about it. They’re not the Dodgers. Yet. Losing Rodriguez was a serious blow to the rotation, and signing Michael Wacha seems more like a Garrett Richards/Martin Perez replacement than anything higher up the food chain, which is all to say they probably still need to bring in someone else even after signing Wacha.

That all said, the Red Sox are running out of starting pitching options on the free agent market. Gausman, Ray, Max Scherzer, Justin Verlander, Eduardo Rodriguez, Jon Gray, Steven Matz, and Noah Syndergaard are all signed and off the market. Clayton Kershaw is still technically available, but nobody seriously thinks he’s going anywhere but back to the Dodgers or maybe to the Rangers. Of the pitchers available who could legitimately fit into the middle of Boston’s rotation, there are only really two left: Marcus Stroman and Carlos Rodon.

Like just about every other pitcher, the Red Sox have been connected to both, but it’s not clear how seriously. This is where I put a plug in for Rodon. He was amazing last season, pitching 132.2 innings of 2.37 ERA ball. He struck out 185 while walking only 36. He struck out an amazing 36 percent of the batters he faced and did it as a starter (typically numbers like that only come from relievers in small samples). He is seriously talented and signing him doesn’t require losing a draft pick.

The downside with Rodon is that he missed significant time towards the end of last season with bouts of shoulder soreness and arm fatigue. Frightening as those injuries are, the upside with Rodon is comparable to any of the starters already off the market, and higher than any of those remaining as well. He’s an intriguing option for the Red Sox, albeit one that comes with those difficult to discern injury issues. How much do you give a guy who has a sore arm? The answer is three years and $130 million, of course, but what if I told you that you aren’t the Mets? How much then? Ah ha! Now it’s more difficult.

Jokes aside, or as aside as I can put them, Rodon is a player who it might make more sense to attempt to get on a longer term deal. Yes, longer term deals always carry more injury risk for clubs, but conversely one year deals for players with injury risk carry increased performance risk for the club. If Boston signs Rodon to a one-year deal, yes, they might get the next Robbie Ray, but if he misses time, he’ll be out the door and onto another team’s roster before the Red Sox get much benefit. A three year deal with a team option for a fourth seems reasonable in this environment and provides the Red Sox with a longer term rotation option.

The Red Sox aren’t in a position where they need to be desperate, like the Rangers or Mets. Boston has a budget and they’re going to stick with it. Long term deals have long term consequences for rosters and for team building, something the Red Sox are keenly aware of. That said, it’s hard to imagine Boston goes into next season with the starting rotation as currently constructed. Another starter makes a lot of sense, and locking one up for more than a year to help ease the blow of Nate Eovaldi’s impending free agency following next season makes sense as well. Given that Rodon is, pending his medicals, the best remaining option, he makes a ton of sense.

The other option available is Marcus Stroman. Stroman is more of a ‘floor over ceiling’ guy. He gets grounders and keeps the ball in the yard. It’s not a bad profile, similar to Rick Porcello in his prime, but while Porcello fit the mid-teens Red Sox well, Stroman would be depending on an infield defense for help it probably can’t provide. Dustin Pedroia isn’t walking through that door. Probably best to let some other team make use of Stroman’s talents.

Looking beyond the rotation, the Red Sox have reportedly expressed interest in keeping Kyle Schwarber. Schwarber’s market hasn’t really developed yet, but reportedly the Phillies are interested. Playing Schwarber in the outfield every day, as a National League team would have to do, isn’t the way I’d go, but then I’m not the silver foxed Dave Dombrowski. Regardless, it doesn’t seem like Schwarber will sign before the CBA deadline, so the Red Sox should have some time to talk to his agent and figure things out, if things can be figured out.

If there is a lockout, and that seems the most likely option at this point, the Red Sox will have more time to explore the remnants of the starting pitching market. There are options remaining that could help the 2022 Red Sox rotation substantially, but we may have to wait until the owners and players sort out their differences before we pull back the curtain on any new additions, even as the crazy free agent winds continue to swirl.

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