On The Noah Song Saga

Did the Red Sox really screw up?

You may have heard about Noah Song by now. The Red Sox took him in the fourth round of the 2019 draft out of the Naval Academy. He would’ve likely gone higher, possibly in the first round - he was a very good pitcher who projected to start - but he was committed to the Navy. He signed with the Red Sox and pitched 17 innings for Low A Lowell that year and did quite well, with 19 Ks and five walks. Then he left for military service, helicopter flight school if I remember correctly, and that was it. He was gone.

Until the most recent Rule 5 draft. Despite not having thrown a pitch or even put on a uniform since 2019, Song was eligible to be picked. The Red Sox didn’t protect him as he was still in the Navy (why would you tie up a spot on the 40 man roster?) and in the biggest surprise of the draft, the Phillies selected him. Weird! Then, in another surprise, just the other day, Song reported to Phillies camp. Super weird!

So wow the Red Sox really messed up! They basically let a first round pick go to the Phillies for nothing in return. Awful! They’re so dumb! And this is getting that kind of coverage. Check out the header in today’s Boston Globe.

There he is. Right in between the winter weather and the MFA labor dispute. Noah Song. Must be important!

Peter Abraham’s story for The Globe on the matter characterizes this as a, “potentially embarrassing development” for the Red Sox because they “may have let a future ace slip away…” Later on, Abraham says losing Song amounted to the Red Sox “losing one of their best prospects.”

If all that was true you could see why people might be upset. That would be serious mismanagement on the part of the Red Sox. Thing is though, I think this all, and by “all” I’m talking about the discourse on this topic generally, not just what I quoted in The Globe, misses some glaring details. I wouldn’t quite say it’s disingenuous but… well, I just wouldn’t say that.

So what did happen? Well, the recitation of facts above is correct. What’s missing is emphasis, namely that Song hasn’t pitched since 2019! The last professional team he pitched for doesn’t exist anymore. Yes, he pitched well then, but it was 17 innings and he was a 22-year-old pitching in Low A ball. A highly drafted college pitcher should pitch well in Low A.

Since that time, three years have elapsed and while we don’t know, it’s very likely Song hasn’t trained for baseball at all in that time. He’s now 25 (he’ll be 26 in May) and he’s being asked to make a major league roster. Could he? Yes. He could. Will he? I mean, probably not.

The minor leagues exist for a reason. They’re developmental. Song has had virtually zero development time since he was drafted. He’s not worked on command, control, his pitch mix, pitch tunneling, nothing. But it’s actually worse than that. He’s not played organized baseball at all in three years. While his peers have been moving forward, he’s been moving backwards.

So again, could Song make the Phillies roster? He sure could. What seems far more likely (to me, anyway) is that he looks rusty. He gets knocked around. He shows some of the old stuff, but not what he had three years ago. He strains something. He is a pitcher, after all.

At the end of spring training the Phillies will either have to put him on their major league roster, i.e. he’ll be a major leaguer, or they’ll have to offer him back to Boston.

We’ll see how this all plays out, but to be clear I should say I’m rooting for Song. It would be a great story if he made the team. But given all the above, it seems unlikely to me, and I think a clear understanding of the facts would make it unlikely to you as well. Because of that, the way this is all being talked about seems bizarre to me. A lost ace? One of the team’s best prospects? My dude hasn’t thrown a pitch in three years! It’s almost as if the people talking about it this way have some kind of agenda, one where they want to make the team look bad.

It’s true that the Red Sox didn’t know (presumably) that Song was willing and able to come back to baseball, which is why they didn’t protect him, but also I don’t think they’d have protected him even if he’d showed up with a glove ready to go after last season. Teams that are trying to win don’t have spots on the active roster that they can punt on a guy they can’t use, so if Song makes the team he’s going to pitch. And because he was selected by the Phillies, if he makes their team he’s going to pitch against major league hitters. Not for nothing too, but he’s going to have to do it from the bullpen, a role he’s never played before, because there’s no way he’s making the Phillies rotation. That’s a lot to ask given the situation.

This all seems so pie in the sky to me and yet the Red Sox blew it by letting a potential ace, one of their best prospects, get away for nothing.

Thanks for reading.