On Rafael Devers

Should the Red Sox sign him, what makes him good, can he stay at third, is he getting better, and more about the biggest decision this team has to make since trading Mookie Betts

I swear this is the photo that comes up when you search for “Rafael Devers” Photo by Patrick Hendry on Unsplash

A while back someone wrote to me on Twitter to say they didn’t find my writing funny anymore. I’ve always tried to add bits of humor here and there, because, well, I like it. So on one hand you might think this particular criticism would hit me kinda hard, but it really didn’t. I haven’t felt much of a sense of humor about the Red Sox this season. It’s easier to be light and free with things when the team is winning, that’s true, and other than one month or so there hasn’t been a whole lot of winning. So maybe that’s it. Or maybe I’m just getting less joy from this team than I would normally. That’s a less happy thought, though definitely possible.

Before we ponder that bit of inscrutableness, or better yet, ignore it entirely, I want to talk about Rafael Devers.

Devers is the crucible. He’s the keystone that this franchise is currently built around. The Red Sox have role players but with the impending exit of Xander Bogaerts and JD Martinez this coming off-season, their stable of star players seems emptier than it has been in a long time. The resident of that particular penthouse, as far as I can tell, is one: Rafael Devers.

Devers leads all Red Sox players in WAR, any kind you prefer. He’s eighth among American League position players in Baseball Reference WAR (bWAR), and fourth among the same cohort in FanGraphs WAR (fWAR). His defense this season has been vastly improved. His 25 homers lead the Red Sox by 10. Since 2019 (his age 22 season) Devers has the 11th most fWAR in baseball, half a win behind Mike Trout. He’s been good. He is good. He’ll be 26 next season so it stands to reason he’ll continue to be good for a while.

Yet for reasons the Red Sox have yet to extend his contract. So here’s the question: Should they?

There’s an old piece at, I believe, Over The Monster by Mark Normandin called “Should the Red Sox extend Xander Bogaerts?” I will now quote the entirety of the piece:

Yes.

Every word of that piece applies here. And yet... There must be some reason they haven’t. Why not? Let’s look at some possibilities.

1. Perhaps Devers doesn’t want to sign with Boston.

2. Perhaps Devers wants to test free agency.

3. Perhaps Devers wants to see what happens to his friend Xander Bogaerts before agreeing to stay.

4. Perhaps Devers just has yet to receive an offer he and his agent deem worthy of his services.

OK, now let’s knock those down.

One. We know Devers has already engaged with Red Sox management on an extension. They didn’t come to an agreement but it’s doubtful he’d have been willing to talk if he didn’t want to stay in Boston, and I’m not sure what would’ve changed between then and now to alter his sentiments. So I’m calling no on that.

Two. Again, if Devers wants to test free agency, why did he engage about an extension?

Three. Maybe, but I doubt it. I’ve never heard of a free agent deal being signed or not signed because of the presence or lack thereof of a team mate.

Four. I’m just gonna tell ya now: this is the right answer. The rest is window dressing at best. The Red Sox and Devers haven’t yet agreed on a deal because so far they’ve disagreed on his value. But they have tried. They’ll likely try again this off-season. The issue is will the Red Sox try to get a deal or will they try to get a deal done? So far it’s been the first.

Why haven’t the Red Sox met Devers price yet? Of course I can’t say for sure what the team thinks but, to me, the issue concerning Devers has always been his ability to play third base. His bat and production at the plate have never been in question. If he can play third long term he’s clearly a huge asset. If he can’t stay at third and has to move to first base or DH, then he’s much less of an asset. The difference in pay for a star third baseman compared to a star DH/first baseman is significant. And the Red Sox don’t want to pay Devers star third baseman money if he’s a DH or first baseman.

So then the question becomes, has Devers adequately answered those defensive concerns with his play in 2022? It’s impossible to know what the Red Sox internal numbers say as I don’t (yet) work for the Red Sox. (Though if Chaim wants to shoot me an email, I’m open to discussing a career transition.) Publicly available numbers have been all over the map on Devers’ defense since he came into the league. FanGraphs has him at -4.7, -3.7, +11.9, -2.3, -7.3, and +2.6 (this season). Baseball Savant has -6, -7, +17, -4, -12, and +2 (so far in 2022). To put those numbers into more subjective terms, that’s two bad seasons to start his career, a very good one, then two more rough seasons, then this season, which has been good.

Again, with the huge caveat that the Red Sox numbers might be quite different, Devers has come a long way this season. After a really rough 2021 in the field he’s become a positive player defensively. Those numbers are backed up anecdotally by what I’ve seen from him this year as well. He looks more sure footed, he makes far fewer lazy throwing errors, and he’s done a far better job of going towards third base (Baseball Savant’s numbers actually back this last assertion up).

The thing is that he’s done this before. He was quite good in 2019 by both metrics but then he backslid in 2020 (weird year; forgivable) and again in 2021. This is, I think, where we give Devers some slack though. He’s still quite young, but was a ridiculously young 20 when he took over the starting role for the 2017 Red Sox. It was, in retrospect, too much to ask of the young guy to learn to play a position, to learn to be a major leaguer, and to not make any mistakes. That’s what was demanded of him though, and he fell short of that.

He’s older now, wiser, and knows more what is expected of him both on the field and in his life to prepare himself to play. Or maybe I’m making excuses for him, I don’t know. If you want to see genuine growth in Devers this season, you can see it. If you want to see another season in an inconsistent career, you can see that too.

That’s actually a great way to look at Devers career in general. He’s been inconsistent, and because of that, he’s kind of a guy who looks how you want him to look. He’s not a player without warts. He doesn’t walk much. He tends to swing at the first pitch. He gets himself out sometimes. He chases pitches outside the zone too much. He’s not fast. He’s not a great fielder. These are all reasons not to pay him, reasons to get what you can for him and move on.

But my gosh can he impact the baseball. Impact like a meteor smashing into the Earth. When he hits the ball it’s goes like there was gunpowder involved. And his metrics reflect that. 99th percentile in Average Exit Velocity. 83rd percentile in barreling up the ball. 95th percentile in Hard Hit Percentage and 96th in Expected Slugging Percentage. Those are some silly numbers, and if you forgive 2020, they’re consistent throughout his career. He’s a dude who knows how to hit, and given his age he might just be getting better. But even if he isn’t, even if he stays exactly the same as he is right now, wow what a player to write into the lineup every night. What a player to build your team around for the next decade.

The Red Sox have a decision to make this off-season. Are they going to talk to Devers about an extension or are they going to extend themselves and really try to lock up one of the games great young hitters?

I wasn’t kidding when I spent a few months before the season blabbing about how Devers could win the AL MVP. But for Aaron Judge’s Roger Maris impression and an ill-timed Devers slump, there was a real chance at it. And I wouldn’t bet against him making a run at the award again in 2023. Here’s hoping he’s doing it while still wearing a Red Sox jersey.