Notes from a Painful and Disappointing Loss (the one yesterday, not any of the other painful and disappointing losses)
We got notes on good things, we got notes on bad things, we got notes on things that aren't good or bad, like goats... I mean, I like goats I guess, but if they all ceased to exist I guess I'd be fine
I know they can’t win every game, but can the losses be more mundane, more humdrum, more ‘they gave up four in the first, three in the third, and the offense never got going’ kinda losses? Enough with going up 7-1 and having the lead slowly carved away by bad defensive plays, mental lapses, and general bad luck. Enough with the rip-your-heart-out-and-poop-on-it losses. Enough, just generally, with the Rays.
OK! That’s all the whining about last night’s game I’m going to permit myself. From here on out, we’re going to handle this analytically, intelligently, and definitely not by screaming, jumping up and down, or dropping F bombs while running down the middle of the street in our underwear. Definitely not.
Before we get going, thanks for reading. If you’re not subscribed, please, as the kids say, smash that subscribe button. It’s free, and it’s about the Red Sox, and it’s by me, and two out of three ain’t bad!
There have been a bunch of topics that have been marinating in my brain for a few weeks if not longer, and last night’s game is just the vehicle to discuss them, so let’s go!
Team Defense
The Red Sox managed to kick the ball around pretty good yesterday. I’m not going to go into each and every mistake, partly because there are too many and partly because it’s later than it was before when I refused to look at highlights and I need to go to bed at some point before the sun comes up. Suffice it to say there were too many, far more than you’d like. Unfortunately, I don’t think there’s a whole lot the Red Sox can do about it.
I wrote the preceding paragraph in late June. It’s sadly as appropriate today as it was then. I was talking to my son about the loss and I was saying I can’t get mad at Taylor Mottor for making multiple errors (well, I can, and I did, but in retrospect, I shouldn’t have). He was something like the eighth second baseman to play for the Red Sox this season. He was taken off waivers from Colorado, and while he’s not completely without his attributes (that hair, for one), he’s not the guy you want out there in a critical situation during a critical game. But half the team has COVID and that’s just where we are right now. The real issue is, even if the regulars were back, I’m not sure the quality of the team defense rises up all that much. And that’s something the Red Sox are going to have to examine during the off-season.
I don’t have any quick solutions. The outfield probably is what it is, at least for the most part, baring Chaim Bloom going on a massive Dipoto-esque trading spree. That might not be the worst thing overall, but it’s not going to result in a 2018 Red Sox outfield defense.
In the infield, they have seventy different candidates for second base and none of them are Dustin Pedroia or anything close defensively. Unless you’re going outside the organization with a big trade, I don’t know how much better that’s going to get. They would’ve loved prized prospect Jeter Downs to take over second next season, I’m sure, but he’s been dreadful in Triple-A and I think there’s a greater chance he starts 2022 in Double-A than in the majors.
Over at first, Bobby Dalbec’s improved hitting has been fantastic to watch, but I continue to think he’s just keeping the seat warm at first for top prospect Tristan Casas, who could potentially be up later next season. That brings us to third base, where Rafael Devers both amazes and confounds on the regular. I’d lock Devers up, I think his bat is that special, but we haven’t really seen Bloom operate that way, at least not yet. Also, there’s the not so small matter of Devers defense, which is hot and cold. You might say, ‘whatever, lock him up and figure it out later,’ and I’d probably agree with you, but if he can’t play third then you’ve got yourself a pretty little logjam over at first and DH. First world problems, I suppose.
But back to the point: this isn’t a good defensive team, and fixing that as much as possible has to be a priority this off-season. But without churning most of the roster over, I’m not sure how it happens. It might be the kind of thing that gets improved on the margins for awhile, or incrementally over some seasons. Bottom line is 2018 Mookie Betts, Jackie Bradley, and Andrew Benintendi aren’t walking through that door.
It’s a problem I’m sure we’ll be exploring after the season in more depth. Any suggestions? Throw them in the comments. I’d honestly love to hear them.
Chris Sale
Let’s start here. It’s great to have Sale back. The days he pitches are an event. Sale Days are as close to Pedro Days as I’ve seen. They’re a spectacle in a good way and it’s a pleasure we shouldn’t take for granted.
That all said, he’s not quite Peak Sale yet. The numbers have mostly been there, minus some strikeouts, and plus a few homers. The ERA is fantastic. But, at least to my eyes, it looks like Sale’s command of his pitches isn’t quite where it was, nor is it where he’d like it to be.
Looking at the data, a lot of it looks pretty similar to Sale’s 2018 and 2017 seasons. His pitch velocity is there, so are his spin rates. The one thing I noticed was Sale’s pitches aren’t moving horizontally quite as much as they were pre-surgery. It’s extremely early to be worried about that, but it’s worth noting.
Also, and this is more of what I noticed from watching him pitch so far, he’s not throwing the ball in the strike zone as much as he usually does. FanGraphs hasn’t updated as I write this, but through his first four starts just 41 percent of Sale’s pitches were in the zone. Sale’s not a guy that typically throws a lot of pitches in the zone, mostly he relies on batters chasing outside the zone. He’s typically in the mid-40s and at 46.2 percent of pitches in the zone for his career.
But that jives with what I’ve seen too. Too many pitches outside the zone. That could be control, command, or just rust. It’s just five starts, so it’s way too early to draw any conclusions. Regardless, it’s great to have Sale back. I’m not sure Vintage Peak Real Chris Sale will be back until next season though.
Hunter Renfroe
Another fantastic game from Renfroe at the plate. Three-for-five with a walk and two of those three hits could’ve been homers pretty easily. His OPS is up to .828, he’s been serviceable against right handed pitching, and he’s absolutely clubbed lefties (.935 OPS). Not bad for a guy picked up for nothing and, amazingly, still under team control for two more seasons after this one.
The Rays don’t mess up often, but they really goofed letting Renfroe walk. It’s remarkable how much talent Bloom picked up off the scrap heap last off-season. I know, we’re the Boston Red Sox and we can sign guys for $200 million if we want to, and that’s true, but it’s nice to scoop up another team’s mistake every now and again, too. Doubly so if that team is Tampa.
And triply so if that team is New York! Speaking of which…
Garrett Whitlock
It’s no stretch to say Whitlock has been Boston’s best reliever this season. He strikes out a good number of guys and doesn’t walk many, but the thing that takes him from a run-of-the-mill back end reliever is his ground ball rate. Fifty percent of the batted balls off of Whitlock have come on the ground. That’s a recipe for limiting homers right there (and it does!) and with a better infield defense it would probably be a recipe for limiting runs as well, but, well, this is supposed to be a happy note to end on, so I won’t go there.
Oops.
That all said, I’m getting concerned (and I imagine the Red Sox are too, at least a bit) about Whitlock’s workload. It’s funny because early in the season people were screaming (maybe including me, a bit, here and there), “Give Whitlock the ball!” But now that we’re into September, it’s worth remembering this is a dude who didn’t pitch at all last season and who is coming off of Tommy John surgery. In 2019 he threw 70 innings. In 2018, he threw 80 innings. In 2020, zero innings were thrown.
Whitlock is at 67.2 innings pitched right now and I’ think we saw some wear and tear showing yesterday. Whitlock’s fastball was as fast as I’ve ever seen him throw, so velocity isn’t the issue, but he was giving up some hard contact. That happened against Cleveland as well. That’s likely a command issue (i.e. throwing pitches where you don’t intend to throw them, i.e. where batters want them and can hit them hard), and it’s the kind of thing we’d expect to see when he’s tired.
Only, Garrett Whitlock can’t be tired because the 2021 Red Sox are depending on Garrett Whitlock to not be tired and to be one of the best relievers in baseball. You can see where this goes.
Like the team defense though, there’s really not much to be done. With yesterday’s loss, the Red Sox are closer to losing their playoff spot than they’ve been in a while. Toronto and Seattle are both three games behind Boston, and Seattle is just a half game behind Toronto and Seattle. The team needs Whitlock, even if he’s a bit gassed.
Thanks again for reading. If you like the newsletter, tell a friend! I appreciate it.
Notes from a Painful and Disappointing Loss (the one yesterday, not any of the other painful and disappointing losses)
The defense and its implications for the off-season are really interesting. Best way to improve it is to move X off SS. Not sure this is something the front office would do, but if so, would Xander be a better fit at 2B or 3B? I know this is sacrilegious, but what do you think about trading two remaining years of Raffie for a cost controlled starter for 4 or 5 years (Trevor Rogers, Logan Webb, other), move X to 3B and sign one of the big FA SS? Other pie in the sky ideas? Losing ERod this off-season likely necessitates acquiring a SP2 or strong SP3, via free agency or trade. Not sure who on the team is truly good trade candidate that team is willing to let go. What Are their areas of strength/redundancy on the roster or in the system? I have to believe Chaim will make some trades and may catch the fan axe off guard.
We've known since April that the Red Sox were a flawed team, but it seems like Tampa Bay has a way of exposing all of Boston's flaws and laying them bare and bleeding in the hot sun. The 2021 Sox are giving us meaningful September games to watch, which is more than I expected, but I'm under no illusions that they could win a best-of-seven series against TB, even if they get that far.