Matt Barnes, Garrett Whitlock, And Boston's Bullpen
Ugh but not ugh
The world’s most predictable column would be if I wrote about the Red Sox bullpen after last night’s bullpen meltdown. So after lots of thought, I’ve decided to write about the Red Sox bullpen after last night’s bullpen meltdown. Settle in.
Let’s start in 2020. I know, I know, it’ll be over quickly.
Boston’s 2020 bullpen was really bad. They ranked 26th in baseball in fWAR, 27th in ERA (5.79), and gave up the most homers of any bullpen in baseball by a substantial amount (I refuse to say how many) (okay fine it was 49, six more than Detroit) (I should’ve kept my mouth closed). Of the 26 relievers who saw time for the team in 2020, 12 of them were worth negative WAR on the season and only two were worth more than 0.2 WAR. (I know WAR and ERA aren’t the greatest way to do this, but they work in a quick ‘n dirty get-to-know things kinda way).
Flash forward to 2021 and the two “best” relievers from 2020 are gone. In fact, of those 26, only five have survived to make the 2021 roster. This is a good thing, and it has worked well for the Red Sox.
The dirty little secret here is that the Red Sox bullpen, even with their recent struggles included, has been very good this season. Better if you go by fWAR, where Boston’s pen is sixth in baseball, and not quite as good if you go by ERA where they’re 14th, though 0.07 from being 10th. Either way, or even if you subscribe to TTIIB (The Truth Is In Between), they’re a long way from where they were last season.
This speaks well of the front office and the talent evaluators who are making the decisions. The Red Sox have a number of guys who look like longer term pieces (as much as any reliever can look that way) in Matt Barnes, Tanner Houck, Garrett Whitlock, Josh Taylor, and maybe Darwinzon Hernandez if he can ever learn to command his pitches even a little bit. And that’s just on the major league roster. There’s also guys like Kutter Crawford, Connor Seabold, Kaleb Ort, and Chris Murphy all in the upper minors and all who could contribute at some point in the very near future.
So that’s the rose-tinted (carmine-tinted?) glasses view from 10,000 feet or whatever. Overall, things are fine.
Right now at this moment though... yuck.
Over the past 30 days, the Red Sox collective bullpen ERA sits at 5.51, 26th in baseball. You may notice a certain similarity between that ranking and ERA and what the team did last season. Yes, over the past month the Red Sox pen has put up a roughly 2020-esque performance.
But it gets worse!
Actually, it doesn’t. Even with last night’s blowup by Matt Barnes, the team’s ERA over the past week or two weeks or however you slice it, is fine. Not great, not really even good, but fine. Bullpens go through rough patches just like lineups and that’s what is going on now. Of course, bullpens are built of individual players, so it’s worth examining what is going on now because just saying “it’s a rough patch the end” is hardly sufficient to explain the Red Sox bullpen over the past month or so.
Matt Barnes
This is the biggie. Any time the closer struggles it makes everything look worse.
Barnes had a rough 2020 season. He was worth negative WAR last season and looked like a guy not long for Boston considering his contract was up after the 2021 season. But he made some strategic changes in his approach, worked to attack the zone more (I wrote about it at the time), and made the All Star team for the first time in his career. Shortly before that, the Red Sox somewhat surprisingly signed him to a two year contract extension. The deal contains a team option for the 2024 season and clocks in at about $9.4 million a year. That’s a great deal for the Red Sox if Barnes continued to pitch well.
Since signing his contract and the All Star game, or since July 12th, Barnes has a 8.71 ERA. He’s given up 10 earned runs (11 runs overall) in 10.1 innings including five walks, a hit-by-pitch, and three homers. But actually, it’s worse than that. Seriously this time. Barnes was very good and very effective throughout July so saying “since his contract signing” includes a lot of good pitching. His struggles really began in the double-header against Toronto on August 7th. He pitched in both games and did not do well. Since that day, Barnes has an ERA of (there’s no way you’re ready for this… guess what it is… now go up… and up…)
20.77. All those runs and homers and everything I mentioned above (10 runs, three homers) have come in the 4.1 innings since the beginning of that double-header.
It’s hard to say what’s wrong with Barnes though something clearly is. Partly he’s been hurt by the porous Red Sox defense. Batters are batting .615 against him in this stretch when they put the ball in play (i.e. not strikeouts, walks, HBP, or homers). Barnes has a .308 BABIP on the season and a .323 BABIP over his career, so some of this will even out over time assuming he’s roughly still the same Matt Barnes he’s always been. But part of that is hard contact, which, it stands to reason, tends to go for hits more often. Part of that is the homers he’s given up which are harder to chalk up to bad luck. And part of all this is surely (and bizarrely from the outside) confidence, as noted above by David Ortiz. Though Ortiz could say the problem with Matt Barnes is that he’s turned into a chocolate cake and he needs to turn back into a person I’d probably be like “THAT’S RIGHT!”
But Barnes’ struggles have had a profound effect on the team, right? Well… kinda. I won’t say no, but I won’t say yes either. Since and including that double-header against Toronto on August 7th, Barnes has pitched in eight games. The Red Sox are 5-3 in those games. Barnes has given up runs in five of those games and the Red Sox are 2-3 in those games. So Barnes has absolutely cost the Red Sox some games, and those games could be vital by the time the season ends, but he’s also not cost the Red Sox a ton of games.
Partly that’s because of guys like
Garrett Whitlock
It is amazing what Whitlock has accomplished this season. Since coming over from New York via the Rule 5 draft this past off-season, Whitlock has quickly ascended from the back of the pen, a guy the Red Sox were sheltering, to - let’s be frank here - the best reliever on the Red Sox and a future member of the starting rotation, likely next season.
A 1.64 ERA in 60.1 innings will do that. But this isn’t just a run of good luck. He’s looked the park. His pitches are all good. His results are all good (tons of strikeouts, few walks, fewer homers allowed). And this isn’t just a two pitch reliever either. Whitlock has four pitches, though you might not give him quite that much credit as two of those are a four-seam fastball and a sinker, effectively pretty similar offerings. Still, three distinct good pitches is more than enough to start.
Here’s what the experts at Sox Prospects say about Whitlock on his player page there.
So let’s see how that slider is doing.
The slider is the yellow highlighted line. I’m no Kyle Boddy but an expected batting average of .177 looks pretty good to me. Not in any way to pick on the guys at Sox Prospects. This was written likely earlier in the season and Whitlock has progressed a lot since then. They do amazing work and you should be reading them daily. Also, having the slider as a put-away pitch against righties was and is an important part of Whitlock’s ability to be successful as a starter. It’s just that he’s kinda climbed that hill already, which is both surprising and exciting if you’re a Red Sox fan.
And since I’m throwing a bunch of numbers and images at you, let’s all gaze lovingly at Whitlock’s MLB percentile rankings from Baseball Savant.
*sigh*
The danger here is oddly about the same with Barnes and with other Red Sox relievers who have struggled recently, such as Adam Ottavino, namely burnout. Matt Barnes has pitched 48.1 innings this season, more than twice the 23 innings he threw in 2020. Ottavino has pitched 50.1 innings this season after throwing 18.1 last year. Whitlock, bless his heart, is coming off Tommy John surgery and didn’t pitch at all in 2020. He threw 70.1 innings for Trenton in 2019. He’s thrown 60.1 so far this season.
The other main cog in the pen is Josh Taylor. Taylor is at 40.1 innings pitched on the season after throwing 7.1 in 2020.
It’s easy to say these guys are tired and I’m sure they are, but that’s probably true for just about every member of every bullpen in baseball, so it’s not a great excuse. But excuse or not, it’s at least an explanation. During the past month, Alex Cora has worked to get guys time off. Ottavino pitched just once facing two batters between August 9th and 18th. Between August 10th and 20th, Matt Barnes pitched in just one game. Taylor is in the midst of one of those stretches now, having faced just one hitter since August 18th.
Whitlock though has been getting regular work the whole time. Maybe it’s because he got rested during the beginning of the season, maybe it’s because someone has to pick up the slack. Maybe it’s because he’s been on a regular pitching schedule (more or less) all season long and that’s mostly just continued. Or maybe it’s because the dude just shoves and it’s tough to ask the manager to not go to his best reliever when the season is in flames.
Bringing this full circle, the pen has been good overall, even with Matt Barnes’ (and Adam Ottavino’s) recent struggles. Burnout is a real thing, and it looks like Cora is doing what he can to combat things. The Red Sox fielding (which I wrote about recently) isn’t helping things either, but there’s not much that can be done about that at this point.
Struggles come and go. Matt Barnes didn’t start to struggle until after striking out two of three in a dominating inning during a 4-1 win over the Tigers on August 4th. Then, he struggled badly. Then he struck out three straight Rangers in the ninth on August 20th. Then he’s struggled badly.
The bad news is the bullpen is struggling right now. But the good news is they’re healthy and Garrett Whitlock is still pitching well. On the whole this group has shown themselves to be a good bullpen. If the past is really prologue, they’ll revert to that sooner or later.