Let's Chat: Where is this team and what should they do? Also, the draft!

Drafty drafty drafty draft!

This is where they’re holding this year’s MLB Draft! )Photo by Thom Milkovic on Unsplash)

The strange saga of the 2023 Boston Red Sox continues. What is there to say about this team beyond a shrugging emoji? They win three against a good team, they lose three against a bad team. They just went 5-1 against Toronto and Texas, but before that they went 1-5 against Miami and the White Sox.

It’s difficult to form a coherent and overarching idea of who this team is right now, at least for me. But there are a few different angles to look at. So! Let’s chat!

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Part of me thinks I’m being silly. The Red Sox are a .500 team or thereabouts and they’ve played like a .500 team or thereabouts. They went 15-14 in April (and one March game), they were 13-13 in May, and they’ve gone 17-16 in June and five July games combined. Are we making this harder than it needs to be?

Well, yes, of course we are. But also, no. Anyone who obsesses over this team can see the talent. You can see how good the offense can be, how good the bullpen and rotation can be. This can be a very good team. This could be a 2021 kind of team. Get in and make a run. If Sale comes back and…

OK, I’m going to stop myself there. I got one sentence into a probable playoff scenario before using the word “if.” Baseball is always about ifs but this is a team that has been crushed by injuries and currently sports what I’d probably call a 2.5 man five man rotation. Which is just freaking unheard of. The bizarre part is that, of the many starters Boston has had in their rotation this season, the one who has not been hurt and missed time is James Paxton. So, is there a better definition of living on borrowed time than that?

There’s a huge part of me that thinks the Red Sox should trade Paxton yesterday. He makes next to nothing (for an MLB player), he has a track record of pitching very well, and he’s not signed beyond this season so there’s no obligation to take on additional salary or years. He’s basically standing on the Fenway mound and screaming, “TRADE ME!” in between 97 mph fastballs.

I don’t know what the Red Sox could get for him, but I’d guess it would be substantial. Not like a 17-year-old in the Florida Complex League or a Triple-A reliever and a failed former prospect. I mean like a Top 100 prospect and probably something else. Someone who could seriously impact the farm system and the major league team soon. Someone like Jack Leiter from the Rangers, Mick Abel from the Phillies, or Curtis Mead from the Rays. The Dodgers have a ton of guys and not enough room for them all. The Reds need pitching and are leaking with great minor league prospects. It’s a real opportunity to land a substantial piece.

Boston’s playoff chances have increased four percent since going 5-1 over their last six games, so what are we even doing here? Trade Paxton for prospects yesterday!

Except, the Red Sox DO have a chance at the playoffs and 20 percent, while not what you want, isn’t nothing. It’s certainly not nothing to the guys in the clubhouse. It’s definitely not nothing to the people in the front office who could very well lose their jobs with another out-of-the-playoffs finish this season. Is it fair to expect Chaim Bloom to trade off assets when doing so could very well be the final nail in his coffin as President of Baseball Ops for the Boston Red Sox?

And yet, this team has three starting pitchers! Three! And one of them is a reliever! And one of them is James Paxton!! How is this ever going to turn out well? Is there a universe in which this team can somehow keep Paxton healthy through the season and through a (prospective) playoff run? Sure, Chris Sale could be back by then but A) if so, he’d only be the fourth healthy starter (generally ya need five), and B) who is to say Sale wouldn’t step on a rake and trip into a well while on a rehab assignment?

Counting on Chris Sale seems more than iffy at this point. Heck, counting on James Paxton seems iffy at every point. But if you can’t count on Paxton, how are you going to count on this team?

Oh, did I mention they have one healthy catcher and no healthy shortstops?

So what do you do with this?

I’d love to hear your thoughts in the comments, but at least for now, I’ll tell you what I’ll do: focus on the draft!

The MLB draft starts this Sunday and bleeds into Monday and Tuesday for reasons, presumably. The Red Sox, by virtue of a mediocre 2022 season, are picking 14th. The good news there is that this is a stacked draft. There should be very good players available to Boston at 14 and again at their next pick, number 50, as well.

So who do I think they’ll pick? Well, this is Sox Outsider, so I have no inside information on who the team is favoring at this point, but I have read all the mocks (so you don’t have to) and I think there are quite a few candidates. First though, it’s worth pointing out that the Red Sox have picked high school middle infielders in the first round in each of the last three years. Put another way, since Chaim Bloom has been in charge, the Red Sox have only selected high school shortstops in the first round. So, you know, do what that information what you will.

This season, there are some good high school shortstops who should be available around pick 14. But, perhaps oddly, more than a few mock drafts are projecting the Red Sox to select a college middle infielder in the first round. There are two good ones to choose from in Matt Shaw of the University of Maryland (he’s from Massachusetts) and Tommy Troy of Stanford University. Both can play multiple positions, and hit the ball with impact. I wouldn’t say those picks would be disappointing, but as is often the case with college players not picked at the very top of the draft, the upside is a bit lower than I’d like.

If Boston opts for more upside, there are a few guys that stand out to me who should or could be around at pick 14. Aiden Miller is a high school third baseman with lots of power. Blake Mitchell is a high school catcher with power and a great throwing arm. Kevin McGonigle has perhaps the best hit tool of any high schooler in the class, but it’s questionable where he’ll end up defensively. All those guys would represent enticing picks.

There are also a number of very exciting pitchers available, but I don’t get the sense the Red Sox are going to spend a high pick on a pitcher. If they do, they might pop either Noble Meyer, a high school right-hander with upper 90s heat and a ridiculous slider (side note: He’s from Portland, Oregon and I’ve been to see a number of his games, including the Oregon High School Championship Game, where, in seven innings, he struck out 14, walked one, and allowed just two hits.), or Thomas White, a high school lefty from Phillips Academy in Andover, Mass.

Meyer and White are probably the two best high school pitchers in the draft, but there are a few college pitchers who could be available at 14. Top amongst those is Chase Dollander, who was projected by many as a potential first overall pick before the season started. Sadly for Dollander he had a rougher season than expected at the University of Tennessee, but the talent is absolutely still there. He’d be the best pitcher the Red Sox have drafted since Jay Groome in 2016 and, if you think he’s better than Groome was, well then you have to go back almost 20 years to Clay Buchholz. Which… wow.

But realistically, the Red Sox aren’t going to take a pitcher in the first round, let alone a high school pitcher. The upside is there, but the downside is just too prevalent due to the increased likelihood of injury.

Anyway, it’ll be fun to add some more prospects to the system, and some more careers to follow.

So, who do you think the Red Sox should take? I’ll be back to discuss the draft afterwards and of course the ever-perplexing major league team as well. Thanks for reading.