My guess is that Soto will be attached to one of their bad contracts (Corbin, Strasburg) in any deal, similar to Mookie Betts and David Price. With the Lerners looking to sell the team, using Soto to clear the books and make their franchise all the more appealing to any potential buyer is probably their primary motive in this transaction.
With that in mind, I built a trade offer that's built around Tanner Houck, Triston Casas, and eating the remainder of Corbin's contract. I hold onto Mayer and Bello, but I include Nick Yorke and Jarren Duran, plus a small handful of pitchers from the upper levels of Boston's system (who might otherwise turn into Rule 5 conundrums this winter) in order to get close to the value of Soto/Corbin, per the Trade Simulator I used for player valuation. It's a lengthy read, but I tried to preserve some of the future while still building a realistic package that makes sense for Washington.
I’ve missed your commentaries. Hope everyone is healthy and doing well.
I’d love to see the Red Sox acquire Soto, but before we discuss specifics, I’m reminded of what someone (Bill James, I think) wrote years ago.
The impact of any ONE player is significantly less in baseball than in other sports. It’s not like you can acquire LeBron James or Tom Brady and go from also-ran to champion overnight.
That said, this is the perfect time for the Sox to make a trade like this. They have a much-improved farm system, and are actually facing a roster crunch this winter.
As you said, they finally have the financial flexibility to acquire and pay a young franchise player.
And God knows they have the need.
I’d part with you on just one point. I’m not trading Marcelo Mayer.
If you're not trading Mayer then you're not getting Soto. The asking price is going to include every team's best prospect and probably their top two or three, and so there's just no way the Sox can get it done without including Mayer. It hurts me to think about dealing him, but for Soto, I think you have to.
It sounds like another A-Rod situation, a MVP-caliber player that does not make his last place team better or help to actually put them in the World Series. Luckily the Red Sox did not finality bite when A-Rod was toying with the Yankees. The Sox got 4 World 🌎 Series rings without him!
I would offer the Nationals Alex Verdugo, Jeter Downs, and Connor Wong. Love your newsletter, by the way.
I wish I could make this the featured comment.
And thanks!
My guess is that Soto will be attached to one of their bad contracts (Corbin, Strasburg) in any deal, similar to Mookie Betts and David Price. With the Lerners looking to sell the team, using Soto to clear the books and make their franchise all the more appealing to any potential buyer is probably their primary motive in this transaction.
With that in mind, I built a trade offer that's built around Tanner Houck, Triston Casas, and eating the remainder of Corbin's contract. I hold onto Mayer and Bello, but I include Nick Yorke and Jarren Duran, plus a small handful of pitchers from the upper levels of Boston's system (who might otherwise turn into Rule 5 conundrums this winter) in order to get close to the value of Soto/Corbin, per the Trade Simulator I used for player valuation. It's a lengthy read, but I tried to preserve some of the future while still building a realistic package that makes sense for Washington.
https://www.overthemonster.com/2022/7/18/23268311/playing-gm-my-red-sox-trade-proposal-for-juan-soto
I'll take a look. Thanks for the link!
Welcome back, Matt!
I’ve missed your commentaries. Hope everyone is healthy and doing well.
I’d love to see the Red Sox acquire Soto, but before we discuss specifics, I’m reminded of what someone (Bill James, I think) wrote years ago.
The impact of any ONE player is significantly less in baseball than in other sports. It’s not like you can acquire LeBron James or Tom Brady and go from also-ran to champion overnight.
That said, this is the perfect time for the Sox to make a trade like this. They have a much-improved farm system, and are actually facing a roster crunch this winter.
As you said, they finally have the financial flexibility to acquire and pay a young franchise player.
And God knows they have the need.
I’d part with you on just one point. I’m not trading Marcelo Mayer.
Hi Walt, thanks for the kind wishes.
If you're not trading Mayer then you're not getting Soto. The asking price is going to include every team's best prospect and probably their top two or three, and so there's just no way the Sox can get it done without including Mayer. It hurts me to think about dealing him, but for Soto, I think you have to.
It sounds like another A-Rod situation, a MVP-caliber player that does not make his last place team better or help to actually put them in the World Series. Luckily the Red Sox did not finality bite when A-Rod was toying with the Yankees. The Sox got 4 World 🌎 Series rings without him!