It's Thanksgiving So Sure The Red Sox Signed Michael Wacha

Boston makes its first move in the increasingly competitive starting pitcher market and it's first attempt to begin to replace Eduardo Rodriguez

Coming into the off-season, you might not have thought Michael Wacha was someone worth interrupting Thanksgiving pumpkin pie for. And I’d argue you were right in that assessment. Pumpkin pie is good! Michael Wacha is… eh… The Red Sox felt differently though, as they signed Wacha to a one-year, $7 million contract pretty much in the middle of you dousing your piece with spray-on whipped topping. Now, with Michael Wacha on the Red Sox, you may remember this feeling from such off-seasons as last off-season. Or the one before it. Or really any off-season when the Red Sox signed Martin Perez. So while Max Scherzer is signing with the Mets and the Blue Jays are signing Kevin Gausman, the Red Sox left the Thanksgiving table for… well, yeah.

So let’s talk about it! But first, a quick hello! This is Sox Outsider, and I’m Matthew Kory, the person who writes this newsletter/column/blog/thing-I-never-know-what-to-call-during-conversations. You may know me from my work at The Athletic, where they still haven’t taken down my picture, and FanGraphs where I never had a picture to take down. I’ve worked in other places as well, and been lucky to do so, but now I’m striking out on my own, face to the wind, so please, won’t you join me here at Sox Outsider? All you have to do is click this little button! It truly couldn’t be easier.

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First, I apologize for not getting this post up a few days ago. I try to be on top of these things and typically I am, but yesterday was spent flying across the country and the previous days were spent with family after not doing that for a few years, so pardon me if I kinda put this off for a little bit.

So, where were we? Oh yeah! Michael Wacha. Wacha isn’t wholly different than the dearly-departed (not dead, just off the roster) Garrett Richards, whose time in Boston proved the 17th century German scientific theorem that says there can only one Garrett per Major League roster. True, as it turns out! Richards was brought in on a short-term, relatively low money deal to pitch at the back of the rotation, but he had some upside. That upside ultimately wasn’t realized, but it existed when he signed last off-season.

Wacha probably doesn’t possess the upside Richards did last off-season, but it’s entirely possible Wacha could end up as Boston’s fourth starter in 2022. If he earns that over the course of the season, his contract is a steal at $7 million.

Just 30 years old, Wacha spent almost all of his career with St. Louis. He had a brief stopover with the Mets in 2020 before signing with Tampa last season. He started 23 games (relieved in six others) for the Rays and ultimately finished below replacement level according to Baseball Reference. FanGraphs thought more of his efforts, crediting him with 1.1 wins above replacement. Wacha was about league average with strikeouts and slightly better than league average when it came to issuing walks. For the cost and the risk that’s a pretty nice package. But where he gets into trouble is home runs.

Wacha has spent the last three seasons getting absolutely torched by the home run ball. He’s had home run troubles throughout his career, but the last three seasons are when it became a huge problem for him. If he’s able to curtail his homer problem then perhaps there’s some more upside to be had here. If not, and considering his new home division and home park, that’s got to be the going expectation until proven otherwise, then this is Martin Perez 2.0.

There were some pitch mix changes for Wacha last year, as noted by Red Sox Stats on Twitter.

Red Sox Stats @redsoxstats

When Wacha dumped his cutter he went fastball heavy and held batters to a .070 BA and .120 SLG with his fastball in September. However, there were still a bunch of balls crushed for outs. Not exactly thinking his new pitch mix was a sustainable fix, but who knows.

That’s great and all. There is probably an optimum pitch mix for Wacha to use and I’m sure the Red Sox front office is all over that topic already.

The Red Sox undoubtedly have some plan for him, just as they did for Hunter Renfroe, Garrett Whitlock, and Garrett Richards. Sometimes that plan works, and sometimes it doesn’t. The jury is out on whether the Red Sox can get more out of Wacha than he’s showed the last few seasons. It’s probably worth pointing out, however, that if you’re looking for upside plays, in essence hoping your team is smarter than the team the player just came from so you can get more out of that player, signing ex-Rays is probably not the way to go.

The issue to me more than any other though is that there really isn’t anything Wacha does that recommends him. He can stand on the mound and throw innings, and that has value, but if you’re getting torched, that value dissipates quickly. Wacha isn’t terrible, but he doesn’t have great stuff, he gives up hard contact, he doesn’t keep the ball on the ground or in the yard, and he doesn’t avoid walks or strike guys out enough to make it the already tight balancing act work.

None of this is to say the Red Sox have made a bad signing. One thing we learned last off-season is that November is simply too early to say if a signing is good or bad. We just can’t know now. All we can do is predict based on the past, which, in fairness, is roughly what the Red Sox are doing now, albeit with a bit more information than we have at our fingertips.

That caveat aside, it’s hard to feel too much excitement over this signing. This isn’t - can’t be - the guy to replace Eduardo Rodriguez in the rotation. Last year’s starting staff included both Richards and Perez, and I’d buy Wacha as a replacement for either. And the Red Sox have all the depth I wrote about last week, so even if Wacha doesn’t work out it’s not a disaster. So that’s all fine, I guess, but the good pitchers are going off the board quickly. Noah Syndergaard is taking his talents to Anaheim. Max Scherzer seems likely to sign with the Mets as of this writing. Kevin Gausman has signed with the Blue Jays. Jon Gray got four years from the Rangers. Corey Kluber signed with Tampa. Robbie Ray is still out there, though if that’s the plan I’d be shocked. Beyond Ray, Marcus Stroman (who I think is a bad fit for this roster given their lack of infield defense) and Carlos Rodon are still on the market, and both would be able to step in and be a middle of the rotation arm. Beyond them, the pickings get slim.

There are also players available on the trade market, but it’s difficult to project which teams are willing to trade which players and what they’d require to do so and whether or not Boston has enough to pull any given deal off, so I’ll stay away from that for now.

Instead, we’ll end with this: I started this newsletter almost a year ago. Within a few days of that, the Red Sox signed Hunter Renfroe. Most didn’t feel optimism about that signing at the time, but Renfroe had a good season. It all worked out for Boston, and far better than other signings fans and writers would’ve preferred for the Red Sox during that cold December day almost a year ago.

This isn’t the exciting deal many were hoping for, but Wacha can help the Red Sox in 2022. How much? Well, that’s open to debate.

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