Improving The Club

It's time to start treating this team like the contender it is

The 2021 Red Sox season has been a bit like opening a fortune cookie and finding two fortunes, which is to say things are going perhaps better than anyone expected. The team is mostly healthy and the core of their lineup has been playing to the fullest of their abilities. With June approaching, it’s time to take stock of the roster in preparation for the trading deadline. With that in mind, I wanted to discuss changes the club can make to improve the roster with the expectation of competing for the division title.

The first improvement, or at least the easiest one to forecast, is Chris Sale. Alex Speier of the Boston Globe (and a recent guest on the Sox Outsider Podcast) wrote about Sale working his way back from Tommy John surgery a few days back, and you can read that here. It’s worth reading in full, but the gist is that, barring setbacks which are always possible with this and all types of recoveries from serious surgeries, the expectation seems to be Sale could return to the Red Sox sometime in July. That possibility stands as a potentially huge development for the team and a massive improvement to an already effective starting rotation.

Beyond Sale, it’s worth looking at specific positions to identify where the team has struggled. Here’s where the Red Sox rank by FanGraphs WAR at each position.

Catcher: 15th
1st: 27th
2nd: 22nd
3rd: 3rd
SS: 1st
OF: 17th
DH: 1st

The weak spots are catcher, first base, second base, and outfield.

They’re not going to do anything at catcher, with Christian Vazquez and Kevin Plawecki set as the starter and backup, respectively. First base is a different story. That has been the domain of Bobby Dalbec, who has struggled so far this season. He was dreadful in April, a sin that was forgivable for a young player with talent, but he’s not improved in May. He’s hit for more power in May, four homers to just one in April, but the overall production is about the same, and well below what is required from a major league first baseman. So far the team hasn’t been hurt too badly by Dalbec’s struggles, but one wonders how much longer he’ll be given to turn his season around.

Should they decide to go in a different direction, there are a few options for Boston at first base. If they want to be aggressive, they could call up top prospect Tristan Casas, who is hitting .328/.400/.552 in Double-A Portland, but that doesn’t seem like something the Red Sox would consider until much later in the season, if at all. More realistic would be acquiring a left-handed hitting first baseman to compliment Dalbec, who has hit lefties extremely well this year. A player like Anthony Rizzo of the Cubs would fit perfectly as a regular, but the Cubs are in first place in the NL Central, and thus unlikely to deal him even though he’s a free agent at the end of the season. Other possible and more realistic fits would be Josh Bell of the Nationals and Brad Miller of the Phillies. Colin Moran of the Pirates would fit as well, though he’s under team control beyond this season and would be more expensive.

Alternatively, Dalbec could start crushing the ball. That would make this whole thing easier.

As for second base, the Red Sox have quantity if not quality at the position with Enrique Hernandez, Marwin Gonzalez, Christian Arroyo, and Michael Chavis all getting at-bats. However, nobody has done much to solidify their spot in the lineup, outside of Arroyo’s since-receded hot start. Hernandez and Gonzalez play other positions and Chavis has spent most of his time in Triple-A, but regardless, the team could stand more production out of the position.

Options to improve things are similar to first base in that one of the Red Sox best prospects happens to be a second baseman in Jeter Downs. Downs started off slowly in Triple-A but has been more productive recently. Despite that, he’s hardly forcing his way into the starting lineup. Perhaps he will do so by the trade deadline, but at least right now the likeliest fix to second base, again like first base, is to go outside the organization.

Some options at second base include Washington’s Josh Harrison and Pittsburgh’s Adam Frazier. If the team wants to go bigger, they could attempt to acquire Ryan McMahon from Colorado, though that seems like a long shot option given McMahon’s multiple seasons of team control remaining. Both Miller and Moran have also played second base, though on a more limited basis, so both could be options there as well depending on how the Red Sox feel about their ability at second base.

Outfield is another position like first base and second base in that the Red Sox have one of their top prospects at the position and potentially available to bring up in Jarren Duran. Duran has put up good numbers at Triple-A but it seems he still could use some seasoning in the minors. His defense is spotty and he tends to swing at a lot of pitches, something which could get him into trouble in the majors. Still, unlike Casas and Downs, Duran seems like he’s almost definitely going to get a shot at an outfield corner in Boston before the trade deadline.

Adding Duran would give the Sox an outfield featuring him, Alex Verdugo, and a platoon of some combination of Enrique Hernandez, Danny Santana, and Hunter Renfroe. In fact, adding Duran could help fix both the outfield and second base, as it could be the impetus to move Hernandez back to second base on a more full-time basis.

Beyond Duran, the team could explore the trade market for a corner outfielder. Names like Mitch Hanigar, Starling Marte, or Andrew McCutchen could be available at varying prices.

If I had to guess, I’d say the Red Sox will bring up Duran at some point relatively soon. He’ll play just about every day in left field and that will free up Hernandez and Santana to split second base. Any trade the Red Sox make will likely be to fill any injury that pops up between now and the trade deadline, though the team, like all teams, will likely be in the market for a reliever. If Duran struggles then things change, but I don’t get the sense the team is going to make any large or long-term additions to the roster during the season.

It’s certainly interesting that the three biggest holes on the roster are at positions occupied by the organization’s three biggest prospects in Casas, Downs, and Duran. That’s a subplot into how the organization sees this team, those prospects, and the future of those particular positions. In short, if you want to know what the Red Sox will do to improve the team during the season, check the WooSox boxscores.