Extension News Now: Red Sox Use Wits, Lock Up Whitlock
Not the extension you probably wanted, but a good one nonetheless
I’m nothing if not topical.
I was going to write a Red Sox Week In Review piece, and I still will, but with the Patriot’s Day game today, I figured I’d hold out until the series with Minnesota ends before getting into that.
So instead I want to discuss something I should’ve covered back when it was announced, namely Garrett Whitlock’s contract extension. So let’s get into that after I say hi.
Hi! Welcome to Sox Outsider, my free Red Sox newsletter. I’m Matt Kory. You might know me from my work at The Athletic, FanGraphs, or Sports on Earth. I’ve written in a bunch of great places on the internet, and now I’m writing here, hoping to create another great place, though this one is devoted specifically to the Boston Red Sox. I’m covering all aspects of the team here, so subscribe and come along for the ride. Thanks.
We all know the story of Garrett Whitlock by now, but just in case you’re unfamiliar, Whitlock was an 18th round draft pick of the New York Yankees out of the University of Alabama in 2017. Whitlock pitched well in New York’s system, but required Tommy John surgery in July of 2019. This necessitated his missing the 2020 season, which fooled the Yankees into thinking he wouldn’t get chosen in the Rule 5 draft. They were wrong.
The Red Sox picked him, thinking they could stash him in the bullpen. And actually that’s kinda what they did. What they probably didn’t expect was that by the end of the season he would be the team’s best reliever.
Whitlock threw 73.1 innings of 1.96 ERA ball in his first season with Boston. He struck out more than a batter an inning (81 Ks) and walked just 17 for a very good K/BB ratio of 4.76. In the playoffs, he was just as effective, giving up just two runs (both on solo homers) in 8.1 innings, including closing out the Wild Card against the organization that let him go.
With five years of team control left, the Red Sox didn’t have to extend Whitlock at all. We’ll get into the reasons why they did later, but clearly the Red Sox saw enough in him, despite the recent Tommy John surgery, to warrant a long-term commitment. That commitment lasts through the 2026 season and includes two team options years for 2027 and 2028. The first five seasons (including 2022) guarantee Whitlock $18.75, though if you count his salary this season the total is a shade under $20 million. That brings us to the two team options. The Red Sox bought out two years of Whitlock’s free agent years, 2027 and 2028, at $8.25 million and $10.5 million respectively. If those are picked up, and the escalators in the contract are reached, Whitlock will take down $44 million.
So that’s the contract. Before we get into why, let’s look at who Whitlock is as a pitcher. He’s 6’5, 225 and he’ll turn 26 in early June. He has the prototypical starters build, something else we’ll get to in a moment. He’s got four pitches: a fastball, a sinker, a slider, and a changeup, and he throws all of them. The fastball lives in the mid-90s and can reach the upper 90s. There’s good separation in his changeup and slider compared to the fastball, as both pitches come in in the low 80s.
Last year the sinker helped Whitlock generate a lot of grounders, as a shade under 50 percent of the balls put in play off him came on the ground. With last season’s Red Sox infield behind him that wasn’t as great as it might normally be, but generically, grounders are better, even though they go for hits more often. They never go out of the park and rarely result in extra bases. And often times they turn into two outs rather than one. So there’s that too.
Last season Whitlock did everything you’d want him to do in terms of results.
What that chart is telling us is that Whitlock prevented batters from doing much of anything when he was on the mound.
This season has been more of the same, though we’re still heavily in small sample size territory. Whitlock is striking guys out, he’s throwing strikes and limited walks, and he’s keeping the ball in the park. Pretty much exactly what he did last season. There have been far fewer ground balls, but again, it’s been all of 8.2 innings so put a pin in this and we’ll come back to it in a month or two if necessary.
All of this tells us that Whitlock has been a pretty effective reliever out of the bullpen, but none of it tells us why the Red Sox wanted to lock him up for potentially the next seven years. We’ve all seen how the careers can go for relief pitchers. They show up, look amazing, and then disappear almost as quickly. There are some guys who hold on for the long term, but most relievers are short term guys, not usually someone to bestow a seven year contract on, even if the money is relatively modest. So why?
I have a theory. It’s this: they don’t see Whitlock as a reliever, they see him as a starter. It’s the only thing that makes sense. Sure, if he stayed in the bullpen and pitched like this for the next seven years, the Red Sox would be happy with it. But why accept the risk of a long term deal, risk they just accepted by signing Whitlock, if he’s just going to pitch out of the bullpen? In that case, you go year to year and when he breaks you’re not on the hook.
The Red Sox signed Whitlock to this long term deal to get cost certainty and to buy out two free agent years. If Whitlock were staying in the bullpen or continuing the multi-inning reliever usage pattern he’s been on this season, what would be the point of cost certainty? Relievers who don’t rack up saves don’t get paid, and relievers who do rack up saves get paid but not all that much. Cost certainty is fine but knowing what you’ll be paying a middle reliever in 2026 isn’t worth the chance that he won’t be any good by then but you’ll be paying him anyway.
No, the only way this makes sense is for the Red Sox to move him to the rotation. That does not have to happen immediately, right this moment though. The team has enough starters as currently constructed and with two more in Chris Sale and James Paxton set to return from injury at some point mid-summer there might not be an open spot for Whitlock at any point this season. And that would be fine.
But next season the contracts of Nathan Eovaldi, Rich Hill, Michael Wacha and James Paxton will be up. Paxton does have a team option for 2023, but it’s a two year, $26 million team option, so he’ll have to both pitch quite well and stay healthy for the team to want to keep him at that salary for two more seasons. All of this is to say there may be as many as four or even five spots open in Boston’s rotation in 2023.
Whitlock’s contract extension gives the Red Sox someone they are pretty sure they can put into the rotation when needed and keep him there. What’s more, they’re pretty sure once he’s there that he’s going to do well. So sure, in fact, that they wanted to lock in his salary seven years from now, because, if he’s pitching at or near the top of the Red Sox rotation in a few seasons, that kind of thing can get expensive.
This seems like a shrewd move by the Chaim Bloom front office. In essence they locked up a starting pitcher long term, but because he’s not a starter yet, they could lock him up at a reliever’s salary. Let that sink in.
Next off-season, the Red Sox can add the 2023 versions of Michael Wacha and Rich Hill if they want. Fantastic. If not though? If they can’t find a bunch of guys who they really like at reasonable prices, and they don’t want to pay big money to a starter, well that’s fine. They already have a guy they really like ready to step in and succeed. His name is Garrett Whitlock and he’s signed through 2026.
Thanks for reading.
Oh, one more thing. If you’re interested in who Whitlock is as a person, I highly recommend this piece by my former colleague at The Athletic, Chad Jennings. It’s about more than just Whitlock, but it’s good insight into Whitlock the person as well.
Oh, and lastly: Happy Patriot’s Day! Also, I’m a few days late on this, but happy 15th anniversary to those who celebrate.
