Look, I’m not indifferent to the situation here. My son’s friend called the upcoming ALCS between the Red Sox and Astros '“the big cheaters against the little cheaters”, but he’s a Yankees fan so the joke is really on him. Four years on and people are still unable to get a sentence or two into the Astros without mentioning YOU KNOW WHAT, and if you don’t believe me, just look at this paragraph.
So in attempt to get past this and get you actual information on the team the Red Sox will be facing for the right to go to the World Series, I reached out to a friend of mine. James Yasko lives in Texas and for 10 years or so he wrote the Astros County blog that covered counties. No no, it covered the Astros. Dammit. Sorry. The Astros. Now he does actual life things and writes the occasional column on the team for the Houston Chronicle, which, let’s face it, is darned impressive. James is good people and a very knowledgeable Astros fan (and a good follow on Twitter, should you ever desire to take your life in your hands and enter the portal of Hell), so I took the liberty of asking James to answer Three Questions on the Astros. James came through with flying colors, as you shall see below.
Before we get into it though, let me take a second and thank everyone for subscribing to Sox Outsider. And, if you don’t subscribe, now is a great time to do so. Not because there’s any special discount or price (there’s no price, it’s free), but because the subscribe button is conveniently located right here →
Told ya.
I’ll have a series preview for you tomorrow, so stay tuned for that. Thanks for reading and subscribing everyone. So here’s James Yasko answering Three Questions about the Houston Astros.
1. What are the Astros best at?
Red Sox fans may not have paid much attention to the Astros/White Sox series, and that's understandable because THE RED SOX GOT ALL THE PRIMETIME GAMES LEAVING US ASTROS FANS TO FIGURE OUT HOW TO WATCH A 95-WIN TEAM TRY TO MAKE THEIR 5TH STRAIGHT ALCS IN THE MIDDLE OF THE DAY. And with that being said, the Astros' lineup is relentless. Kyle Tucker, the AL September Player of the Month, is hitting 7th. It's just All-Stars up and down the lineup, and Martin Maldonado, who...is a great catcher. They were 1st in MLB during the regular season in offensive fWAR with 33.9, well above the 2nd place Blue Jays' 30.5, and in wRC+ (116). They mix in high-average guys like AL Batting Title Winner Yuli Gurriel and runner-up Michael Brantley with power guys like Yordan Alvarez. Jose Altuve, Yordan Alvarez, and Kyle Tucker each had seasons with 30+ doubles and 30+ homers. There's just not much of a lull with this group.
2. What are the Astros worst at?
Extending soon-to-be free agents like George Springer and Carlos Correa? Respecting the integrity of the game lol? The bullpen can be shaky. GM James Click tried to address this by trading for Kendall Graveman from Seattle and Phil Maton from Cleveland (giving up a couple of really good baseball players with years of team control left in Abraham Toro and Myles Straw, respectively...and Joe Smith) at the trade deadline, with mixed results. Graveman, in particular, was acquired to be a key piece in the back of the bullpen and managed to regress closer to the mean from his Seattle ERA of 0.82, to a 3.13 ERA with Houston in just 10 fewer innings pitched. Still, he has outpitched his FIP over the course of the season for both Seattle and Houston. Maton, however, true to his short career thus far, hasn't lived up to his FIP. He seems to get blooped to death. So for the Astros to go from a middle-of-the-road bullpen in the shortened 2020 season to...a middle-of-the-road bullpen in 2021, but with a few different guys, is probably their biggest weakness.
3. The Astros pitching staff is pretty different than a few years ago, especially at starter. Can you introduce the starting staff and any important relievers?
The de facto Ace of the staff is Lance McCullers, Jr. He missed all of 2019 after undergoing Tommy John surgery following the 2018 season. McCullers actually needed the surgery earlier in the season but elected to pitch in a relief-only role during the postseason (which he did twice against the Red Sox in the cursed 2018 ALCS, which I'm sure you remember for All Kinds of Shenanigans like Joe West calling fan interference from 200 feet away on the Astros, or Jackie Bradley Jr somehow rolling a batted ball 40 feet down the top of the left field line). McCullers signed an extension with the Astros prior to this season and responded with a career year. McCullers can walk guys - no qualified starter walked more per 9 than McCullers, but he also only walked three batters in two starts in the ALDS. He gets soft contact and groundballs. Also, McCullers was removed from Game 4, apparently as a super-precaution due to some muscle tightness in his forearm, after 73 pitches. So that's something to watch going forward.
The Game 1 starter is Framber Valdez, a big lefty from the Dominican Republic. I think the Red Sox had a player recently that could also be described as such but that's neither here nor there. Up until 2020 it was A Thing with Valdez that you didn't know if he was going to Frambush the opposing lineup, or get Framboozled. Then 2020 he broke out - lowered his ERA from 5.86 in 2019 to 3.57 in 2020H, and then posted a 1.88 ERA in the 2020 postseason. Valdez ostensibly had a better year in 2021, but walked almost twice as many per 9 innings, so it's not all sunshine and roses. However, Framber really likes the spotlight, so we're hoping for big things in Game 1. He pitched in both of the Boston regular season series, each time going 7+ innings and allowing just 1ER. But I'm sure y'all can fill me in on why that may not matter in October, compared to early June.
There's this guy the Astros got from Arizona a couple of trade deadlines ago named "Zack Greinke." But even Astros fans aren't sure what to expect with Greinke this month. As late as August 23, Greinke had a 3.41 ERA with a .260 BABIP. And then there were some COVID-related issues and he made four starts down from August 29-end of the regular season, posting an 11.74 ERA / 8.00 FIP with a 1.76 WHIP. For the ALDS he transitioned to a bullpen role, but only appeared in one game - the 4th inning of the Cursed Game 3. He allowed two hits and Yasmani's Grandal non-interference base-running. We just don't know what to expect in the ALCS.
Without Greinke the Astros will turn to Luis Garcia, one of the absolute thunderbolt surprises of the 2020 season. He's one of those guys that hadn't pitched above High-A before 2020, did well in limited action in the regular season and postseason, and is an AL Rookie of the Year contender. He went 11-8 with a 3.30 ERA / 1.17 WHIP that isn't out of line with a 3.63 FIP. Garcia allowed 2 or fewer earned runs in 20 of his 303 starts in the regular season and - I swear - had a great start derailed by Tom Hallion's strike zone in Game 3 of the 2021 ALDS.
In the wings the Astros also have Jose Urquidy, who went 8-3 in 20 starts in 2021. He was also dealing with some health issues, COVID and otherwise, which limited his season, but the Astros had enough to cover him. He's another one who doesn't mind the spotlight, throwing five scoreless innings on the road in Game 4 of the 2019 World Series when the Astros were down 2-1. And that is all we will say about the 2019 World Series, the outcome of which will haunt me for the rest of my days.
For relievers, we've already covered Graveman and Maton, but we can look at a couple more, starting with Ryan Pressly. Acquired at the 2018 trade deadline from Minnesota, Pressly enjoyed a 2.25 ERA in 64 appearances (64IP), striking out 81 and walking just 13. He's the 9th inning guy. Ryne Stanek was signed from the Rays this past offseason and that dude is a head case, which means he's a perfect reliever. Stanek had a 3.45 ERA in a team-high 72 appearances. But nine of his 26 earned runs came in just two appearances. I know you can't really do this, but if you take out two bad appearances out of 72, that's a 2.25 ERA for a season.
It'll be a fun series. I'm sure the history between the Astros and Alex Cora will not come up at all, and both fan bases will sing Kum Ba Yah at each other in both Minute Maid Park and Fenway. Also, Josh Kantor is Tha Goat.
Many thanks to James, who you can follow on Twitter here, and read at the Houston Chronicle here. While I’m asking you to do things, please subscribe to the Sox Outsider newsletter.
I’ll be back tomorrow with a ALCS Preview. Thanks for reading.