ALCS Game 2: Grand Slams Are Good

Thoughts and notes on a big Boston win: Kiké, Eovaldi, the back of the bullpen, Devers, JD, and other stuff who knows I'm writing the headline before the article which you probably shouldn't do

That’s more like it.

The Red Sox crushed the Astros 9-5 and coasted to a Game Two win. Now tied a game apiece, the series is going back to Boston for the next three. This one wasn’t a laugher exactly, though that’s because the lurking presence of the prolific Astros offense means almost no lead is unreachable. Judging only by the score though, the Red Sox covered the Astros in a pillow, sat on it, and repeatedly punched them for about four and a half hours. It would’ve been four hours even, but Jake Odorizzi took a half hour to warm up so more punchings.

We’ll get into some thoughts in a second, but first, this is Sox Outsider, a Red Sox newsletter written by me, Matt Kory. I’ve written at The Athletic, FanGraphs, Baseball Prospectus, Vice Sports, and other places. I’m excited to be covering the Red Sox here and I’d love to have you along for the ride with me. So push that subscribe button (it’s free!) which is coming up about…….NOW

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The Difference

The difference between Game One and Game Two is as notable as an SUV with its high beams on right behind you. The Red Sox loaded the bases in the first inning with two outs in Game One but Hunter Renfroe flied out to center field and the Sox got nothing. In Game Two, same scenario. First inning, the Red Sox load the bases with two outs. Up steps JD Martinez. Only Martinez didn’t fly out. He did this:

Red Sox @RedSox

EVERYBODY GET UP IT'S TIME TO SLAM NOW!

Then, perhaps to drive home the difference between the two games to those only partially paying attention, they did it again next inning. This time Rafael Devers did the honors.

Red Sox @RedSox

Bases juiced, Raffy lets loose!

Like in Game One, in Game Two the Red Sox came to bat a lot with runners in scoring position. Like in Game One, in Game Two the Red Sox didn’t have a lot of success. They were 1-for-9 with runners in scoring position in Game One, and 3-for-10 in Game Two. Better, certainly, though still hardly great, but the difference made all the difference. Two home runs with the bases loaded do tend to make a big difference. If the Astros pitchers get JD and Devers, they very well might win this game. But they didn’t. And they lost.

Baseball Savant says the JD slam changed the Red Sox chances of winning from about 50 percent to about 80 percent. An inning later, Devers’ slam pushed that number to 97 percent, pretty impressive considering there were still seven and a half innings to go. It’s hard for any offense, even a great one like Houston’s, to score eight runs in a game, let alone score eight in less than a game. It happens, sure, but it’s unusual. And Houston needed to do that plus hold Boston scoreless the rest of the way. That’s why that percentage was so high. To me the game wasn’t over until Verdugo caught that fly ball on the track in the ninth, but realistically, that second slam was

I thought about making Nate Eovaldi the first note, and I’ll get to him below, but let’s not be too inside-baseball about this. The difference in this game and between the two games was the Red Sox two grand slams. That’s it. Not complicated.

Nate Eovaldi

The other difference in Game Two compared to Game One was that the Red Sox got good starting pitching. Eovaldi was good if not the almost perfect version of himself that he’s been. His blemish came in the fourth inning when he allowed a bunch of hits with two outs, eventually leading to three Houston runs. Even that was fine (it was 9-0 at the start of it so) given the situation.

Eovaldi was throwing pitches right over the middle of the plate in that inning, most notably the high splitter he threw to Kyle Tucker, who doubled. I don’t think that was by design, as that seems like a bad idea against a potent Astros offense, even one down by nine runs. So Eovaldi wasn’t quite as sharp, but thanks to two grand slams, he didn’t have to be.

One thing he did do was throw a lot of strikes, 65 percent in fact. He walked only one and threw 81 pitches in 5.1 innings. It wasn’t exactly economical (thanks mostly to that rough fourth inning), but it was something just shy of that. He got the Red Sox into the sixth inning with a six run lead which we will happily accept.

Kiké

Kiké hit another homer. He went 2-for-4 and is now hitting .500 with a 1.608 OPS this post-season. Frankly I’m surprised it’s only .500 as I’m pretty sure he’s doubled twice every time he’s been up.

Seriously, he’s at three homers in two games this ALCS and they’ve all come on different pitches. He’s hit a slider, a splitter, and a curveball. Going back to the ALDS against Tampa, he homered on a 98 mph fastball as well. The dude is simply crushing everything. Houston pitchers are trying to sleep with this picture in their heads

and to them I say, “Good luck with that!”

Dude is absolutely on fire and it’s beyond a joy to watch. It’s damn appointment viewing. You do not get up to get a beer or use the bathroom when Kiké is even on deck. You. Do. NOT.

The Bullpen and Stuff

Like most teams, the Red Sox have a bullpen hierarchy of sorts. Let’s rank them now, shall we? Yes, we shall!

1. Garrett Whitlock - clearly the best and most trustworthy

2. Hansel Robles - had a great run there for a bit before Game One, still trusted by Cora

3. Tanner Houck - tough ALCS G1 but key piece of the pen

4. Ryan Brasier - scares me but seems effective even if I’m not sure why

5. Josh Taylor - best lefty option and the last pitcher on this list to get a comment

6. Adam Ottavino

7. A water buffalo

8. a sentient pencil

9. a regular pencil

10. Martin Perez

11. toenails

12. a fireplace

13. Hirokazu Sawamura

14. the Boston Pops

15. Darwinzon Hernandez

You can quibble with the rankings a bit. Maybe toenails are ahead of Martin Perez, maybe not. Point is yesterday in a one-run game, manager Alex Cora used options 10 and 13 and not option one despite option one being quite available. Then, in Game Two, Cora used option one for two innings with a six-run lead.

Matthew Kory @mattymatty2000

If I have any complaints, it's that Whitlock is pitching multiple innings in a six run game when the Sox were in a one-run game yesterday and went to Sawamura, Perez, and, well, everyone else but Whitlock

That is not optimal usage and not particularly good strategic managing. Now, you might say, Matt, how was Cora supposed to know the Red Sox would have a six run lead in Game Two? That’s true, and my point is in reference to the bullpen usage during Game One rather than anything that happened afterwards.

Suppose instead of using the less trustworthy Robles in the eighth on Friday, Cora had gone to his best guy, Whitlock, for the eighth and ninth innings. Would the Astros have scored two runs? Would Kiké’s solo homer in the ninth have given the Sox the lead? I know that’s not how it works, but I think the point is an accurate one given the situation in the eighth inning and the importance of stealing the first game of the series. You use your best relievers when the game is still in hand now because you don’t know what will or could happen tomorrow. Tomorrow you could hit two grand slams in the first two innings and not need your best reliever. You know, for example.

On a slightly different bullpen-related point, there are a few guys on the playoff roster that I don’t want even looking at the mound when the game is close. I’m not talking about results. Martin Perez came into Game One with runners on in the bottom of the eighth and got a double play grounder to get out of the inning. Great result! Martin Perez isn’t a good pitcher and he shouldn’t be on the mound unless the game is all but decided. The same is true, unfortunately, for Sawamura and Darwinzon Hernandez, who gave up two homers in four batters yesterday. Those three guys (and Matt Barnes if he ever sniffs the playoff roster again this season) need to be sponging up outs after the game is entirely in hand or completely out of reach. Absolutely nothing else.

This puts a bit of a strain on the rest of the bullpen, but Cora and the front office can and should be capable of handling the situation.

Where the Red Sox are now

With the series tied after two games in Houston, Boston is in a good spot. They say you want to split on the road and win at home. The Red Sox managed the first part. The next three games are all at Fenway Park. The Red Sox should hope to win two of the three and head back to Houston for Game Six with a 3-2 lead. To that end they should have Nick Pivetta and Eduardo Rodriguez in some order pitching Games Three and Four. Both are capable of keeping the Sox in the game enough to allow the offense to do its thing against what is rapidly becoming a suspect Astros pitching staff. That’s the hope, anyway.

Speaking of suspect Astros pitching staffs, Houston starter Luis Garcia left the game after walking Kevin Plawecki to lead off the second inning. It’s not clear at the time of writing how serious Garcia’s injury is, but Houston is already down a starter with the injury to Lance McCullers. Jake Odorizzi, who figured to start one of the next two games for the Astros, threw 82 pitches yesterday so if Jose Urquidy can’t give them innings on Monday they could be in some trouble, trouble which will only compound as the series extends.

As for the Sox, their offense clicked in Houston, and now they head back home where they really do hit like the best offense in baseball. That isn’t good news for the Astros. I said after the first game that this series wasn’t over. It wasn’t then and it isn’t now. But, after two games at least, the advantage has switched to Boston.

Thanks for reading and subscribing! I’ll be back tomorrow with more on the ALCS.