ALCS Game 1: Late Lead Disappears Despite Kiké Hernández's Heroics
Thoughts and notes on Chris Sale, Alex Cora, Kiké, Sawamura, and other things 'n stuff
The best thing about Game One is that Game Two is less than 24 hours away. The Red Sox squandered a late lead, a near-historic effort from Kiké Hernández, and ultimately a winnable game, losing Game One of the 2021 ALCS to the Houston Astros, 5-4. There isn’t any good news for the Red Sox other than the fact that Game One is the least predictive game in any seven game series. In fact, as I pointed out on Twitter, the Red Sox lost Game One of the Division Series to the Rays and they lost Game One of the Championship Series to the Astros back in 2018. Boston won both of those series.
It’s certainly not ideal, but it’s where we are. Before we get into it all though, this is Sox Outsider, a newsletter about the Boston Red Sox, and I’m Matt Kory, the author of said newsletter. I’ve written for The Athletic, FanGraphs, Sports on Earth, and a billion other places and now I’m working to make it on my own here at Sox Outsider. If you dig this at all, please subscribe! It’s easy and free. Thanks.
Once again, let’s start with Chris Sale.
Chris Sale
Sale started the game for the Sox. Unlike his last postseason start against Tampa, Sale made it past the first inning, though he allowed a run on a leadoff walk to Jose Altuve, a single, and a sacrifice fly. Sale’s velocity ticked up and his slider had a bite to it, but even so it was a struggle.
The second inning brought more of the same, with Sale loading the bases on two singles and a hit-by-pitch (somehow the Sox hit Houston catcher Martin Maldonado, the only lousy hitter in the Astros lineup, twice last night). He got out of it by striking out Jose Altuve and getting Michael Brantley to line out to center field.
Those two hitters perfectly illustrate Sale’s struggles. The K of Altuve was vintage Sale. After falling behind 1-0, Sale threw a 95 mph fastball past Altuve up in the zone, then dropped two sliders on him, the second lower in the zone than the first. Altuve swung through the first and foul tipped the second into catcher Christian Vazquez’s glove for the strikeout. Beautiful! The Brantley at-bat resulted in a sinking liner to center that center fielder Enrique Hernandez came rushing in to make a diving catch and leave the bases loaded. Sale looked to be in control but Brantley put good wood on a slider on the outside corner and almost knocked in two runs. It’s what happens when you only have two pitches and don’t command them well.
Throughout his start, Sale looked… well, angry. More angry than I can remember him looking. Usually he looks competitive, but this time he just looked pissed off.
No idea what to make of that, but I present it to you for your enlightenment.
As for his actual pitching, it was ultimately more of the same. Sale’s fastball had more velocity than he’s shown recently, which is good. His fastest hit 97.5 mph and averaged 95.3. He clearly has little confidence in his changeup, throwing only four out of 61 total pitches. The four he threw were mostly fine, with one in particular standing out as a nice pitch that sunk just below the zone, though it was taken for a ball.
So despite some velocity increase, and a bit more bite on his slider, Sale still has moderate-to-severe command issues, and no third pitch. Considering all that, the Red Sox were probably pretty happy to get 2.2 innings of one-run ball out of him, and it was no surprise when Cora emerged from the dugout to pull Sale in the middle of the third inning.
I’m not too concerned long term. Command is always the last thing to return post-Tommy John surgery. The changeup problem has nothing to do with command though. Sale has to figure that out. It’s something he can work on over the off-season, but whether he can find the fix and make it before the ALCS ends is a lot harder to feel confident about.
At this point it seems pretty unlikely that prime Chris Sale will walk out of that bullpen anytime before next March. That doesn’t mean the Red Sox can’t win, but it means depending on Sale for full quality starts is not going to work, so Cora & Co. will have to readjust their expectations if they haven’t already.
Hernandez
It’s easier to write about the bad things than the good things. With the bad things you point out what went wrong and, if possible, how to fix them. With the good things, you just kinda say, “Wow, that dude is good!”
So.
Wow! Enrique Hernandez is good!
Hernandez hit .435/.440/.826 this post-season, and that was before going 4-for-5 with two homers and a double last night. Hernandez also made a game-saving diving catch with two outs and the bases loaded for Houston in the bottom of the second inning, saving at least two and maybe three runs from scoring. He was absolutely phenomenal and it’s a crime he was so good and the Red Sox still weren’t able to win.
Bullpen
The Red Sox bullpen continued being… the Red Sox bullpen. Including Chris Sale the Red Sox used eight pitchers last night and it was the mixed bag you’d expect. Adam Ottavino was fantastic, a nice development for sure. Martin Perez came in with an out and the bases loaded in the bottom of the eighth with the Astros threatening to turn the game into a laugher and got Michael Brantley to ground into an inning-ending double play.
On the other hand, Hirokazu Sawamura was asked to face the bottom of the Houston batting order in the bottom of the eighth inning and loaded the bases with no outs before getting Altuve on a sac fly to left field.
But that wasn’t close to the roughest relief appearance for the Red Sox. Those came courtesy of Tanner Houck and Hansel Robles. Houck came into the game in the bottom of the sixth with the Red Sox up 3-1. He got two outs sandwiched around a single before Altuve came up. Houck threw him a hanging slider on the first pitch and Altuve crushed it for a game-tying homer. The pitch was terrible and deserved its fate. It’s unfortunate because of course Houck wasn’t trying to throw that bad a pitch in that location, but he did and that was plainly the difference in the game.
With the game tied at three Robles came to pitch the eighth. He got the first two guys, Alex Bregman and Yordan Alvarez, rather easily, then got the count 2-2 to Carlos Correa. It was then Robles threw a changeup at the top of the zone and Correa turned on it, hitting it over the left field wall to give Houston a 4-3 lead.
A few notes on that. First: awful, horrible pitch. Just… I… I need to sit down. No problem with the pitch type, a good change at the bottom of the zone could’ve been a strikeout pitch, but a flat changeup at the top of the zone is batting practice. In the end Red Sox relievers gave two of Houston’s best hitters easy pitches on silver platters and that’s how the game was decided.
Second: As soon as he hit it, like before it went out, Correa stood at home plate and stood at home plate and stood at home plate, then pointed at his watch. I get that this is the way of the game now, and I like celebrations as much as the next guy, but there’s a line somewhere between celebration and antagonization and it felt to me like Correa blew past it in a dump truck. Maybe it was just the frustration of the moment.
Also, a note on the homer itself: according to StatCast, it was a homer in only 10 of the 30 ballparks, and only had an expected batting average of .180. Most homers, at least the ones you stand and pimp at home plate for five minutes before running the bases, have an expected batting average of 1.000. For context.
But whatever. Get ‘em tomorrow, I suppose.
Hitting
In some ways last night’s game reminded me a lot of Game One against the Rays. The Red Sox hit the ball well in that game, but the vagaries of a single baseball game and the Rays’ excellent defense combined to shut the Sox out. Yesterday’s game wasn’t a shutout, but like in Game one against Tampa, the Red Sox were the better hitting team despite the score. Of the 16 batted balls that left bats at 100 mph or more, the Red Sox had 10 of them. Boston also had eight of the 10 hardest hit balls on the night. Boston had more baserunners and more extra base hits, as well.
This isn’t to say this will continue. The Astros had the best offense in baseball this season and that’s not going away. But if nothing else, we now know this Red Sox team can hang with Houston. The Red Sox aren’t going away either.
Where the Red Sox are now
The Red Sox are where they were a week ago against Tampa, down a game but with opportunity awaiting in Game Two. Winning today with the next three games at Fenway Park would put the advantage squarely in the Red Sox favor. The Sox will start Nathan Eovaldi today, likely the best starter on either team’s playoff roster right now. And, despite all the relievers manager Alex Cora used yesterday, the one he did not use is Garrett Whitlock, Boston’s best.
So Boston’s best pitchers will be on the mound today, which is a good thing because this is actually a pretty important game for the Red Sox. Win and take a tied series back to Boston. Lose and you’ve dropped the first two of a four game series. 2004 was fun, but let’s put ourselves in position to try and repeat it.
Thanks for reading.
Fwiw I saw Correa do the watch thing a couple times in the series against the White Sox. Not sure if that makes it any better or worse or nothing.
Relatedly it was on a pitch up and in that he ripped down the line for a bases clearing double.
Maybe let’s not throw Correa anything up and altuve anything middle in.
You didn't mention the defense 😀 After you went on and on Thursday about how good Houston's is and how bad Boston's is, it was the Red Sox with the great plays and the Astros bobbling sure double play grounders!