A Sort Of 2023 Boston Red Sox Season Preview

Welcome to the 2023 Season. It'll be a big one with lots at stake. Here's what to know about, look for, and expect from your 2023 Boston Red Sox.

Photo by Jason Weingardt on Unsplash

When Chaim Bloom was hired to take over the Red Sox it was clear his tenure would be different than that of his predecessor, Dave Dombrowski. But it’s one thing to know something and another thing entirely to experience it. Red Sox fans have now experienced it. As we start season four of the Chaim Bloom Era, it’s shocking how different this team looks now than even a year ago.

Red Sox stalwarts Jackie Bradley, Jr., Nathan Eovaldi, Matt Barnes, Xander Bogaerts, Christian Vazquez, and J.D. Martinez have all left town. That’s turnover done right, right there. Go back even a few years past that and you really get into Remember Some Guys: Boston Red Sox Edition territory: Mookie, Benny, E-Rod, Price… The Boston star power that populated media guides and baseball card sets is gone.

Some of that is the natural flow of a professional baseball team at the highest level. Guys come and go. It’s just the way of things. But also, things are very different now. The Red Sox are an almost unrecognizably different team under Bloom. Gone are the big trades of prospects for stars. Gone are the market-setting free agent signings. Gone is the most obvious front office plan ever: WIN NOW. It’s been replaced with the far more subtle and lowercase: win, probably, at some point.

That’s all led to a series of lower cost, shorter term deals, plugging holes on the roster until a longer term solution arrives. Which all sounds negative, but though it can be depressing in the moment, doesn’t necessarily mean worse. It does mean the team is different now. It does mean while the 2023 Red Sox will be wearing the same uniforms they’ll be a vastly different team, and as last off-season has set up, they’re likely to continue that transformation over the next off-season as well. It’s not a season of change, it’s change as the new normal.

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The Boston Red Sox stand in contrast, not just to the New York Yankees and Toronto Blue Jays, but to themselves. They are not the Rays, but they are somehow a higher rent, lesser version of them. This off-season has seen more stars head for greener pastures than Red Sox fans are probably used to seeing over five off-seasons, and while each individual move has its own readily available logic, pulling the focus back to a higher, more macro level will likely elicit some head scratching, even if you’ve recently showered.

These Red Sox aren’t absolutely invested in winning right now, but they’re not absolutely invested in growing the farm to win later, either. They’re in to trade their starting catcher at the deadline, but not their DH, even if it means getting under the luxury tax threshold. They’re in to trade prospects to make the team better during the off-season in theory, but in practice nothing happens. They’re all in on a big money, long term deal for Rafael Devers, a big bodied, potentially defense-deficient left-side-of-the-infield hitter, but out on a big money, long term deal for Xander Bogaerts, a big bodied, potentially defense-deficient left-side-of-the-infield hitter. Yes, there are reasons for each on its own, but taken all together, things get questionable.

Perhaps no more questionable group of decisions were made than those attached to the shortstop position. First, the team essentially refused to negotiate with their incumbent All Star shortstop Xander Bogaerts ahead of his opt out. Then when Bogaerts hit the market, the team was woefully behind in the bidding despite constant public proclamations about Bogaerts being the team’s number one priority. Bogaerts finally left when the Padres offered him You’re F’n Kidding money. The Red Sox made no attempt to come close to San Diego’s offer either on their own or in response.

Further, no attempt was made to bring in a reasonable facsimile for Bogaerts at shortstop, despite it being the best off-season for free agent shortstops in two decades. Instead, the Red Sox paired Rafael Devers new $300+ extension with a bunch of short term fixes and the vague hope that shortstop prospect Marcelo Mayer will blow through the minor leagues and show up in Boston sooner than expected (which, for the record, is probably late next season at the earliest).

Similar short-term patches were made to the outfield, where Enrique Hernandez’s gold glove defense in center was moved, out of manufactured necessity, to shortstop. His replacement is Adam Duvall, who has 71 career games in center field, and was acquired (on a one year deal) to take over the role full time. Duvall, who will be 35 in September, is backed up by… well, probably somebody. Raimel Tapia is slated to start the season on the major league roster, but there’s no guarantee he’ll be on the roster the following month or even the following week. Perhaps by Hernandez can move back to center if/when ex-Royals shortstop Adelberto Mondesi, who is always hurt, gets healthy. Mondesi, if you were wondering, is currently hurt with no announced timetable for a return.

Also playing a new position (sort of) will be Alex Verdugo. Verdugo has mostly been relegated to left field as his defensive performance has taken a big downturn over the past two seasons, but because the Red Sox signed the even more defensively limited Masataka Yoshida, left now isn’t an option. The Red Sox are hoping Verdugo can at least slow his negative defensive trends while playing the far more demanding (at least at Fenway) position. In this case and in contrast to what you learned from watching The Shawshank Redemption, hope is not the best of things.

Concerns about Yoshida in left have been at least somewhat alleviated following his outstanding performance in the WBC. If you’re into placing any importance on spring training stats, you could point to Yoshida’s .913 spring OPS as well, though you won’t find that sort of talk here. Oh no, certainly not. Yoshida will be tested as he’s never been tested before by regular season major league pitching, but you have to at least credit him with succeeding at every step along the way up to this point. For whatever that’s worth.

Red Sox Stats @redsoxstats

Yoshida annihilates a home run over the 420' sign

Yoshida could be very good for the Red Sox, but even if he is, he’s probably not the biggest offensive upgrade the team made during the off-season. That would be top prospect Triston Casas. The Red Sox ranked 24th (tied with KC) in WAR from first base in 2022 with -0.6. Casas’ particular brand of baseball, defined as plate patience combined with extreme power accented by painted nails and partially naked sunbathing, is exactly what the Red Sox need and at exactly the position they need it. Anticipate a big season for the big first baseman, and it wouldn’t be shocking to see him in the leadoff spot, à la Aaron Judge, or the dearly missed Kyle Schwarber, at some time come mid-season.

Tyler Milliken ⚾️ @tylermilliken_

Triston Casas with a BOMB to dead-center. That’s his 4th homer of the spring!

The catching situation is an odd combination of short term and long term. Maybe more so in a money- and flexibility-saving manner than a winning-at-all-costs manner, but somebody has to help offset Rafael Devers’ extension. Apparently. Neither Connor Wong nor Reese McGuire have so much as reached arbitration eligibility yet, so: cheap! Also: good? [insert shruggy emoji] Keep in mind the bar for adequate at catcher is set somewhere around Waterworld, so turning the keys over to two defensively adequate inexpensive options has its appeal.

Skipping to the end of the page, it’s believable both guys can’t hack anything close to a starter’s workload and the catching spot is a sucking black hole of pain and awfulness all season long. It’s similarly believable that with defense taken into account, the duo provides somewhere around league average (for a catcher) production at a fraction of the cost of a Christian Vazquez, or [swoons] Sean Murphy. Which one will it be? With nobody worth mentioning on the farm besides perhaps Jorge Alfaro, the Red Sox have made their bet.

Which brings us to the biggest bet of the Red Sox off-season and therefore, the biggest bet going forward: Rafael Devers. Devers’ 11 year, $331 million extension to stay in Boston was a tall glass of cool water to a desert-wondering fanbase, one seemingly waiting for a front office forever in search of value to ship the team’s last star elsewhere rather than take on the costs of keeping him. Now that he’s here though, now that he’s the face of the franchise, now that the team has fully committed to him, the only thing left to do is perform. For really the very first time, the team is depending on Devers to center the lineup, to be the team’s best hitter, and to produce consistently, all year long, and at an MVP level. It’s a lot to ask, but then $313 million is a lot of money.

The pitching staff is, maybe not so surprisingly, set up similarly to the lineup. At the top you have big-money Chris Sale, finally fully healthy (make sure you don’t leave any rakes lying around) and set to take his rightful place atop the Boston rotation. Behind Sale, you have a collection of guys who wouldn’t be out of place in this suit.

Corey Kluber and James Paxton fill the ‘old and often injured’ lane, while Garrett Whitlock and Brayan Bello fill the ‘young and currently injured’ lane. Tanner Houck, Nick Pivetta, and Kutter Crawford are all firmly in the ‘taking up space until everyone gets healthy’ lane.

Snark aside, it’s not a bad rotation on paper. There is youth, there is talent, and there is experience. What there isn’t a lot of is health. If the main guys, Sale, Whitlock, Bello, stay healthy, and the other guys only miss a bit of time, this can be a strong rotation.

As for the bullpen, it’s more of the same. Kenley Jansen is your big money, old closer. Chris Martin is your older, slightly lesser monied setup man. John Schreiber is back to reprise his role as out-of-nowhere relief star. And after that, well… [gestures] there’s some other guys.

For what its worth, FanGraphs thinks the Red Sox have the tenth best bullpen in baseball which tells us one thing and one thing only: the Red Sox bullpen will absolutely positively finish the season ranked anywhere but 10th. Seriously though, after last season’s below-basement-level bullpen performance, that ranking should make any Red Sox fan feel at least well enough to lift their head up to watch the first few weeks of the season.

FanGraphs thinks similarly of the Red Sox rotation, projecting them to finish 13th. A world-beating, juggernaut this isn’t, but similarly it’s not the rotation of a basement-dwelling rebuild project. As I said a few paragraphs ago, with some well-placed healthy seasons for the main guys, there’s a lot to like here. It’s undeniable though that there’s a lot of uncertainty to go along with it though. The Red Sox would do well to avoid falling off bikes or getting hit by comebackers.

Interestingly, FanGraphs has published articles ranking teams by positions. You can find them all on their website, but I’ve taken the liberty of pulling the Red Sox rank in each category and publishing them just below.

FanGraphs’ Red Sox Rankings by Position
C: 19
1B: 19
2B: 16
SS: 13
3B: 6
LF: 3
CF: 22
RF: 12
Rotation: 13
Bullpen: 10

For what it’s worth, I’ll take the over at first base, third base, and in the rotation, and the under for the bullpen, catcher, and shortstop. The end result though is a team that should compete, which is the watchword of the season, it seems. The site doesn’t see these Red Sox as any kind of mess or 2020-style disaster.

Even in a stacked AL East, the Red Sox have a shot at a playoff spot. It’ll require a lot to go right though. This team needs Yoshida to produce at the outset, Devers to put up his best season at the dish, and Duvall, Hernandez, and Verdugo to quickly settle in and perform at least adequately at new, more difficult defensive positions. Perhaps even more importantly, and apologies for repeating this, but it truly can’t be said enough: the rotation has to stay healthy. It should further be noted that this is something they’ve so far failed at, despite the season not having begun yet.

Perhaps surprisingly considering the team’s mostly short-term focus (at the major league level) this off-season, there’s a lot riding on this season as far as the future of the Red Sox is concerned. As has been endlessly speculated, a third last place finish in four seasons could be the end point for ownership’s patience with this front office. Replacing Bloom would signal an organizational reset, one which would presumably toss numerous players and coaches not to mention basic organizational philosophy all in the recycling bin. Who would take over? What would be their overriding philosophy? How much organizational churn would be required to reset things and move towards contention? It would all be on the table and likely nobody not on a long term, big money deal would be safe.

While that potential has all been speculated to death, it’s worth noting that Bloom hasn’t acted like an executive on the hot seat. You don’t bring in Adam Duvall as your starting center fielder unless A) you feel secure in your job, or B) you badly overestimate Adam Duvall. You don’t keep the shortstop seat warm for a prospect in High-A if you think there’s a chance you won’t be around in a few years to reap the benefits. You don’t take chances with your top draft picks like Nick Yorke and Mikey Romero if you think your job is under any additional scrutiny.

Taken individually, all those moves above (and many others not mentioned) make sense. They’re rational. Reasonable. Intellectually consistent. They speak of an organization with a plan, an executive secure in that plan and in himself, and in his role and future with the club.

But taken all together, questions emerge. Was a 35 year old left fielder really the best option in center? Was your center fielder your best option at short? Was your backup second baseman your best bet to start? How many injury-prone starters is enough and do the Red Sox meet that threshold?

This is the first time in a while where it feels like the team could make the playoffs and go on a 2021-type run, or they could bottom out by June, and we could be looking at full scale organizational turnover by August. For whatever it’s worth, while I’d have done things differently on numerous occasions this off-season (and probably in previous off-seasons as well), I do like this team. There are a lot of gambles, but I do think this team will hit. I do think this team will pitch, especially in the rotation. I wonder about their defense. I do worry about injuries. I do worry about ownership pressing the panic button.

All these questions and more will start to be answered tomorrow, Thursday, March 30th, at 2:10pm Eastern Time. That’s when Corey Kluber will lead the 2023 Red Sox onto the field for the first time, to take on the Baltimore Orioles on Opening Day.

It’s going to be quite a season, one way or the other. At least you can’t accuse the Red Sox of not being interesting.

Thanks for reading.