A New Direction

On Masataka Yoshida, Kenley Jansen, Rafael Devers, trades, Chaim Bloom, and where the Red Sox go from here

The day the Red Sox made two of the most significant signings of the Chaim Bloom era was the same day Xander Bogaerts left. We talked about the Bogaerts deal here. In a word, it’s disappointing, and in another word, predictable. And it will absolutely overshadow the Red Sox offseason going forward unless they go out and make some very big moves that, at least from here, it’s hard to see them making.

So let’s look at where the team is, and what they need to do. I’ll try my best to keep the snide judgmental quips to myself (though you can probably hear them if you listen closely enough).

First on my list is Rafael Devers. The Red Sox don’t seem to agree with this placement, at least not based on reports. To me, Devers must be the first domino, not the last. If he’s going to stay long term, it’s going to be a huge contract, and every other deal after that is going to have to fit in around that. It would be nice for the Red Sox to be the Mets and just spend regardless of, well, everything, but we’ve seen very clearly that that isn’t the case. So if they’re going to drop $300+ million on Devers now is the time.

The other reason to figure Devers out now is because if they can’t sign him or won’t meet his price, then they need to trade him. One year of Devers would be a very valuable chip on the trade market, one that could improve the roster in numerous ways. To be clear, trading Devers isn’t how I would do it, but Mookie and Xander are both gone so clearly I’m not in charge.

But it’s important to sort this thing out now because, as I said, if Devers is staying, that has financial implications. If he is going, he’s going to bring back something that will (ideally) (hopefully) impact the organization’s going forward, and it would be nice to go through the rest of the offseason with full knowledge of what that something is.

Next on the list is to get another starting outfielder. The Red Sox have three starting outfielders under contract now with the addition of Masataka Yoshida from the Orix Buffaloes of the Nippon Professional Baseball League in Japan. The newly signed and immediately overshadowed Yoshida joins Enrique Hernandez and Alex Verdugo as Boston’s presumptive starting outfield. Is that good enough? I have doubts.

Firstly, Hernandez has to stay healthy and not go into a season-long slump, but the team has already committed to him (and I liked the deal at the time and still do) so that ship has sailed. He’ll be the starting center fielder in 2023, probably. I say probably because the team all of a sudden doesn’t have a starting shortstop, and Hernandez could be pressed into infield service. But let’s assume the Red Sox don’t want to ruin their outfield too and say for the sake of argument that Hernandez remains in center.

That’s a good start. Next we get to Verdugo. He’s an interesting case because he’s a corner outfielder without much pop, without great on-base skills, and who is a below average defender. Perhaps it was just a bad few seasons and there’s more there there, but I think it’s fair to have more than a few doubts. Verdugo is fine if he’s your worst outfielder, but he shouldn’t be your best, nor should he be starting every day in right field. And yet that’s where we are. Welcome.

Yoshida is an interesting get. Obviously I’ve never seen him play beyond a few YouTube highlights, but based on reading some reports, it seems there's a good chance he’s an above average hitter. He’s got excellent contact ability and he doesn’t swing at pitches outside the zone, so he gets on base very well. He hit for power in Japan, but it’s not clear if that will carry over well to the states, as he’s not very big, and it’s not unusual for Japanese players to lose some power in the transition to MLB.

Still though, Yoshida should hit. What reports say he can’t do is field. Even last season in Japan he spent most of his time as a DH. What’s more, he’s apparently not particularly fast, so at 29 years old, not an age where athleticism increases, what we appear to have is a bit more of a JD Martinez replacement than a third starting outfielder.

Now if Yoshida hits like he did in Japan or even close to it, he can field like Manny Ramirez and that’ll be fine. But if not, then we’re talking about paying $20 million a year on a five year commitment for a DH, and maybe one a bit down in the power department. That’s a bit frightening. So it’s hard to tell what the Red Sox have in Yoshida until we all get eyes on him in March and, really, in April, but for planning purposes, I’m not sure this is the third starting outfielder the Red Sox need.

So they probably need another outfielder. Who? Well here’s a name. I’d love for them to explore a trade with Arizona for Alek Thomas. Arizona has been rumored as a potential trade partner for anyone interested in young outfielders, as they have more than they know what to do with. Right now the Dbacks starting outfield is Dalton Varsho, Corbin Carrol, and Jake McCarthy, which leaves Thomas as the odd man out. If you’re not familiar with Thomas, he was a consensus top-50 prospect in baseball going into the 2022 season after four minor league seasons that saw him put up a cumulative .888 OPS. He struggled in a first taste of major league pitching last season (76 wRC+) as a 22-year-old but the minor league track record is strong and the skills are absolutely still there.

He’s more of an above average player in a lot of areas than a superstar in the making (like Carrol), think 2017/2018-era Andrew Benintendi, but his offensive and defensive versatility could cover for a lot of roster flaws in Boston He could play center or right field well, and his acquisition would allow Yoshida to DH when desired or if necessary.

Bloom has recently indicated that the trade market is where he’s looking now, so it wouldn’t be a surprise for him to contact Arizona.

Beyond that, well, I was going to go down the whole list, but really it’s just so long, and the scary part is we’re already in mid-December. Bloom has managed to improve the pen by adding Kenley Jansen and Chris Martin (who I like a lot) so that’s something. It’s not finished, exactly, but it’s at least much better. You can look at the bullpen depth chart without involuntarily jabbing yourself in the retina.

But after that? Catcher? Nothing. No change. Third base? No idea. Probably more up in the air now than when the season ended. Corner outfield? Maybe…? Starting pitcher? I… uh… I need to sit down.

And we haven’t even mentioned shortstop. Crap. Now I need to lie down.

It’s an imposing list, but in truth, not an impossibly daunting one. What makes it so difficult is the Red Sox insistence on A) staying away from the top of the market for players, and B) refusing to extend their good young players. That limits their options! Imagine if they lost Bogaerts and signed Correa? I’m not advocating for that, but it sure does solve the problem.

Just yesterday one of the best catchers in baseball was traded and the Red Sox, based on all reports, weren’t in on it. Xander Bogaerts signed with San Diego and the Red Sox weren’t anywhere close. The Yankees are talking with Carlos Rodon. So are the Giants. Are the Red Sox? Nope! The thing that really got my blood moving was when I saw a report yesterday that the Astros had been talking to the Diamondbacks about Dalton Varsho. People seem to love Varsho. He had a great year defensively last season, but I’d rather have Thomas for longer, cheaper, and for less prospect value going the other way. What would the Red Sox prefer? I don’t know, but if Varsho gets dealt all of a sudden the Diamondbacks are out of the outfielder dealing business.

I keep repeating in my head that there’s three months left of the off-season to go. Lots of time. Lots of time. They don’t need a starting shortstop on January 1st. But there’s so much to do right now and I know it’s just reports on Twitter and MLB Trade Rumors, but it’s dismaying to hear all of these other teams mentioned without a word about Boston, the team that has perhaps the most holes of any team that fancies itself a contender. It’s not about any one player, it’s about what has to be done before the season starts. There’s a lot to do, and each task must be accomplished with an ever-reducing free agent and trade market. Given all that, I’m sure I’ll be back here to discuss some move the team has made. We hope.

Thanks for reading.