A List Of Things To (Not) Get Bent Out Of Shape About

Something to get you all worked the heck up as we go gently into the last weekend before the regular season

This is the excitement phase of the baseball season. Spring Training is the lowest of stakes, and so far no Red Sox players have spontaneously combusted, so there’s really nothing to get upset over. It’s all good news, all happiness. And yet, there are some things that have come to light, man, and those things could be interpreted negatively. You know, should people choose to do so. Here is a list of those things and how you should feel about them.

But first, hello! This is Sox Outsider and I’m Matt Kory. This is my Red Sox newsletter. Thanks for reading. I’d be honored if you’d subscribe. It’s free so why not, right? How’s that for an argument? Just click the button. I think you’ll enjoy it. Thanks.

To the list!

1. The Lineup

You may remember me from such things as The Athletic and Whining About The Leadoff Hitter On This Very Newsletter Last Season. I admit it. It really bugged me that Alex Cora was batting Enrique Hernandez, a player with a low on-base percentage, in the leadoff spot ahead of a bunch of guys who could drive him in if only he got on base, which he didn’t. In the end, Hernandez did get on base. He ended up with a .337 OBP, 20 points above the league average of .317. So it worked out.

This year’s lineup offers other items to get worked up over, so don’t worry because I’m taking notes. The primary point now is where to put Trevor Story. Story has received MVP votes in three seasons, which is shorthand for “he’s good” without saying he’s good (he’s good!), but despite that and his $140 million contract, Cora wants to “ease him in” to the lineup by hitting him sixth. Considering that lineups are essentially a divvying of playing time, putting one of your best hitters sixth doesn’t seem like the best decision. Because it’s not. On the face of it, it’s not.

But, and here’s the thing, lineup optimization on a computer might be easy, but Cora is dealing with actual people, which complicates the algorithm. There’s an element of ego massage to it, as well as legitimately helping ease Story into his transition to a new team, a new city, and a new fanbase. It doesn’t hurt to turn the pressure down a bit, at least initially. And that’s the key to all this: initially. The lineup on opening day isn’t etched in stone. It can and will change. Right now Cora has talked about batting him second against lefties. I’d expect, if Story is as good as he’s been and as good as the Red Sox expect him to be, once he gets comfortable and things shake out a bit with the rest of the lineup, Story will move up into the top three with more regularity.

2. Jackie Bradley as a Starting Outfielder

I’ve written about the Red Sox need for a starting right fielder. If I’m honest, the problem is Mookie Betts. You see, they had a Hall of Fame right fielder and they traded him. Oops. GM Chaim Bloom expertly plucked Hunter Renfroe off the free agent pile last season after Tampa DFA’d him and he had a good if not great season. But with one year of team control left before he hit the market, Bloom decided the bloom was off the rose and dealt Renfroe to Milwaukee for two prospects and forever Red Sox Jackie Bradley Jr. So that’s where we are now.

Many, including me, were (and kinda still are) expecting the Red Sox to make a move and add an outfielder. Bradley put up a 35 wRC+ which is… so bad. That made him literally the worst hitter in baseball last season. So getting someone else who, by process of elimination, is not the worst hitter in baseball would push Bradley’s bat to the bench and allow the team to deploy him as a backup outfielder and defensive specialist, something more applicable to his current skillset. Because even if Bradley is not 35 wRC+ bad, it’s not like a 45 or 50 wRC+, a huge improvement, would be good (100 is league average, 99 is one percent below, 101 is one percent above, etc). But as that hasn’t happened yet and as Opening Day is about a week away, it’s looking more and more likely that this is the Red Sox plan. Fire up JBJ. Ready to roll.

My issue with the way the Red Sox look to be doing things now is that you’re banking any damage JBJ creates by starting him. In an extremely competitive division, where a single game can mean the difference between making the postseason and not (talk to last year’s Blue Jays if you don’t believe me), it’s maybe not the best time to wait for the market to come to you. Sometimes you have to be decisive, and at this point in his career Bradley, Jr. simply isn’t a starting caliber outfielder on a championship team. So that’s the reason to be upset.

The reason to not be upset though is that, again, like the lineup, these things are fluid. The Red Sox can add an outfielder at any point, though admittedly teams typically don’t make trades before a month or so before the trading deadline. Still though, the option exists. There are also internal options, like Jarren Duran and Franchy Cordero. Both have talent and perhaps the team knows something or believes it knows something about their abilities in a good way that isn’t public. The same could be true for JBJ. Maybe they simply believe in the player. We’ll see, but the point is, and maybe you’re sensing a theme here, there is lots of time to fix portions of the roster.

3. JD Martinez as a Regular Outfielder

I’m supposed to tell you not to be upset about this, but actually, you probably should be upset about it (relatively, as these things go). The Red Sox have said part of their plans in the outfield include playing JD Martinez. Let’s ignore for a moment that Martinez is a very bad outfielder. Put that in your pocket and we’ll come back to it. Recall that JD is a good hitter. His time as a great hitter might be over (or it might not be!), but at the very least he’s a step forward as a member of the lineup. The problem with playing him in the outfield is he’ll be 35 years old in August. He’s had back problems. Playing in the outfield is an invitation to injury. And I don’t mean necessarily breaking a bone or causing some serious damage that puts him on the IL for months. That could happen, but far more likely is a muscle strain, or a bruise, or any other kind of general malady that would make it that much more difficult for Martinez to help the team in the batters box.

Now reach into your pocket and pull out that note. What does it say? “JD Martinez is a very bad outfielder.” Yup. So not only are we potentially, and let’s be honest here, likely doing damage to one of the best hitters in the lineup, but we’re severely hurting our team’s defense to do so. There just isn’t a justification for this.

The only reason not to be upset about this is that it hasn’t happened yet. Alex Cora doesn’t spout off, but people do say things in spring training that tend to recede when the bright lights of the regular season click on. That and the team already is aware of everything I’ve written above. It’s not like I’m the first person to discover JD Martinez is a lousy outfielder. That territory has been mined. So hopefully they’re able to come up with a better option sometime soon.

4. No Extensions for Bogaerts

5. …or Devers

This is kinda the window if the team were to get something done with either player. Between now, when you’re reading these words, and when the regular season begins. Opening Day is pencils down. Oh and Devers has 50 homers in three at-bats this spring (okay more like five in 20 at-bats but still). And Bogaerts looks like this.

You tell me what the Red Sox should do.

I kid, of course. It’s really quite a complicated problem. The jury is still out on Devers’ defense at third base, which complicates things because there is a big difference in terms of value to the team and therefore in terms of what a team will pay and for how long between an All Star third baseman and a good hitting DH. If Devers is the second that’s one bill, but if he’s the first that’s a much bigger bill.

The jury is in on Bogaerts defense at shortstop and the verdict is he’s not a long term answer at the position. He needs to move off shortstop in the near future. That could be after this season, it could be after next, but it’s probably going to happen sometime soon. If the Red Sox sign him, there needs to be an understanding of what the future holds between team and player. And there has to be a financial understanding as well, because starting second baseman and third baseman don’t typically make what starting shortstops make. So there might be a fundamental misalignment between player and team in regards to their understanding of Bogaerts’ value. Sure, the Red Sox could just pay him as a starting shortstop, but does that seem like something Chaim Bloom is likely to do?

I feel like this is the central question of the Bloom Era. Unfortunately Mookie was a goner as soon as Bloom was hired which is at least as much on ownership if not far more than on the man running the team. This however is all on the man running the team. The decisions he makes regarding the two All Stars on the left side of the infield will reverberate through the organization for decades.

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